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1/29/26 Capitalist Times Live Chat

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Roger Conrad

3:17

Related back to that earlier question about taking profits in gold--A Morgan analyst has apparently forecast $8,000 an ounce.

3:18

But as Elliott just wrote, you're going to do a lot better focusing on managing your positions than trying to pick a top in gold, silver etc.

JT

3:27

Hi Elliott, SLB has finally made a move up after 2+ years in a bear market. How do you think SLB, the stock, will behave in 2026 and beyond?

Elliott Gue

3:27

Energy stocks as a whole beat the market from the spring of 2020 up through to late 2023 and, since that time, they've all come in to one degree or another. The high for SLB was around $58 to $59 in September 2023 and it pulled back roughly 50% to a low of about $30 during the tariff panic last spring. My view has been and remains that the pullback in most energy stocks since 2023 was really a pause within the longer-term supercycle in energy that started in 2020, rather than a new bear market. And SLB was one of the leaders of the first phase of this supercycle from 2020 to 2023, so I'd expect it to be a leader as we enter a new phase of this rally this year. I'm looking for SLB to retest those 2023 highs around $58-59 at some point in the next 6 to 12 months and ultimately I still think we see new highs for the stock with SLB breaking above its 2014 peak in the mid $80s. Fundamentally, SLB is ideally positioned to take advantage of the new CAPEX cycle I'm looking for over the next few years given its

Elliott Gue

3:27

technology-heavy and international-heavy portfolio.

Susan P

3:31

My prior question reference the US dollar's weakness/strength versus Canada's. However, I'd love to understand your thoughts on the overall dollar weakness? Supposed experts comment that 'gold is now becoming the most important global reserve currency'? Can past times of dollar weakness (with its +/- for various industries and companies) be instructive? Elliott has written about long cycles and I wonder if the duration of this weaker dollar is foreseeable?

As always, thank you.

Roger Conrad

3:31

I've been a pretty strong advocate of owning non-US stocks for many years. The main reason is many of best in class companies are based in other countries. But having exposure to other currencies i9s a great way to juice up gains in otherwise great stocks. Enel SpA, for example, has returned better than 62% the last 12 months. And a piece of that is from the Euro's rise from around USD parity to almost $1.20 over that time.

I don't think it would take a lot to see the USD strengthen this year. But I think owning foreign stocks is the best way to take advantage if it continues to weaken--rather than buying gold at $5K plus for the Euro at $1.20 for example.

I would also say that US inflation right now is a far cry from the 1970s or even the 80s. This country is an energy exporter--it was an importer in the 70s. And while I think tariffs are a terrible idea that make this country poorer and discourage investment, the US economy is still growing.

Roger Conrad

3:33

All that doesn't seem to gybe with the theory that we're headed for a long-term dollar crackup. So I think we focus on the micro here as investors--what we can control in terms of risk and reward. Owning foreign stocks gives us a hedge against more dollar weakness. But we can also make money if the USD stages a sudden comeback.

Roy W.

3:40

I would appreciate your thoughts on CNQ.

Roger Conrad

3:40

Hi Roy. I actually own Canadian Natural Resources in my mothers' account. Along with Suncor, it's one of Canada's Big 2. And for the first time in decades, Canadian federal government policy is a tailwind--not a fierce headwind to profitability. I think it's in great shape to benefit from expanding Canadian exports to Asia. And it has a very strong record of executing low cost production from long life reserves--including synthetic crude oil from oil sands. They're targeting 3% output growth for 2026, which is conservative and gives them room for a substantial beat. Earnings are expected in early March. But the company may have substantial news before that regarding a major acquisition.

We track CNQ in our "Canada and Australia" coverage universe. It's a buy at 38 or lower.

Hans

3:41

Elliott, What is your opinion now on MP after todays drop and the administrations comment on rare earth price floors

Elliott Gue

3:41

MP is a very volatile stock that tends to react/over-react to every headline. We've seen intraday swings of 10% higher or lower 4 times already this year. As a result, this is something we only recommend in our trading services and for now, we're sticking with it. The stock really needs to hold technical support around $57.50 though -- that's alevel I'm watching. Fundamentally, guaranteeing price floors for rare earths is expensive, and I am not surprised by comments regarding a need for these companies to be financially viable without government support. In my view though that's a bigger problem for some of MP's "competitors" like USAR and CRML. MP's current contract with the US government is grandfathered in with a price protection clause and management indicated it won't be impacted by this policy shift. Also the government already has a 15% stake in MP and MP is already producing at scale unlike the smaller players.

Pat M. in Oregon

3:42

In at least one of your publications, you would track closed positions. When practical, it would be great if you could list positions that you had recommended selling at the bottom of the current portfolio. Thanks for all your efforts to give me honest and actionable advice!

Roger Conrad

3:42

Thanks Pat. If you'd like, If you'll send Sherry a current email, I'll be happy to send you the spreadsheet I have for CUI portfolios. The full list is quite long--as you might expect for a publication in its 13th year,

Thomas C

3:48

Hi Roger... I am a brand new subscriber to EIA and I noticed that you seem cautious about buying energy stock right now. However, the energy stocks have been on a tear YTD. Is this cautious approach an indication that these price increases are related to temporary issues (like an IRAN, etc) that affect the oil price but are not permanent changers of the supply/demand equation? Or is it possible that the energy stocks are discounting a later in the year true reduce supply?

Roger Conrad

3:48

Hi Thomas. I wouldn't say I'm cautious about energy stocks. As Elliott says, we're in at most the 5th inning of a super cycle. But you're going to do best by being patient--building positions in best in class companies ONLY when they trade at good entry points. And some of the best as of the most recent issue of EIA were selling above prices where we would enter.

As you note, the sector is off to a good start this year. And there are number of catalysts for that--some that maybe won't last. But there are still a large number of companies in the portfolios that do trade at good entry points. All we're saying is buy them and wait on the rest.

JT

3:51

I got a small number of FG shares that suddenly showed up in my account a while ago. My research shows it may have come from FNF. What is the recommendation for these FG shares? What are your thoughts on parent FNF? It has been a laggard for a while.

Elliott Gue

3:51

Yes, FNF recently distributed 6 shares of F&G Annuities and Life (FG) for every 100 shares of FNF you hold as a dividend. They did something similar a couple of years ago though FNF still maintains majority control for now. Right now I still recommend FNF in the model portfolio and I'll have a comment out about FG in the next issue. However, as I alluded to a few issues ago, FNF is basically flat/slightly higher since our recommendation and it's one name I may recommend selling soon. Generally, when we have a recommendation that isn't living up to my initial expectations, I regard it as a source of funds for new ideas.

Pete

3:54

Hi Roger, Could you provide us with an update on NLOP. Thanks. Pete

Roger Conrad

3:54

Hi Pete. I think Net Lease Office Properties is doing pretty much what it said it would when it spun off from W.P. Carey in late 2023. That's making sales of properties at good prices and then paying out the proceeds to investors. So far, the company has made "Special payments" totaling over $19 per share. And shares are still over $19, or about where they were at the time of the spinoff.

I track NLOP in the REIT Sheet--which is Dividends Premium REITs on Substack. It's currently rated a hold, as I prefer BXP in the office sector.

Guest

3:59

Hello Roger/Elliot, with the US dollar continuing to fall, do you see strength in Canadian stocks such as PBA? Even the Royal Bank of Canada (RY) has been on the rise. Do you have other tips?

Roger Conrad

3:59

I think the Canadian dollar is likely to be a tailwind for stocks like Pembina, TC Energy etc. But these stocks also made money over the years when the CAD was a headwind.

I think Pembina is most attractive now as a play on Canada's burgeoning energy export sector--both for their transportation system moving natural gas and NGLs as well as crude oil. And they have a strong record for executing projects on time and budget--which bodes well for the Cedar LNG entering service and producing cash flow by 2028.

I guess my point here is to think of currency as a bonus for owning these stocks--not the reason for owning them, though a stronger CAD is likely to be an upside catalyst.

Sandy

4:09

Hi Roger, Thanks for continuing to hold these chats. I still have HASI in my portfolio and wonder what your sell price recommendation is. I also wonder what you think about BRK.B now that Buffet has stepped down.

Roger Conrad

4:09

Thank you for joining us today Sandy. I'm still happy to own Berkshire and will be so long as they stick to strategy. There's obviously been some selling on the management change. But you have to consider Buffett's success is in large part to building a deep bench of talent over the years and following a system--not levering up on a particular market call. I think Berkshire will continue to have success--next earnings late Feb.

HA Sustainable has at last pushed over my highest recommended buy price (35). I may raise that depending on what management reports Feb 12. But from all indications, this company is set to prove it can grow after renewable energy tax credits expire--KKR sure thinks so committing another $500 mil to their JV. I think that alone will push this stock higher. And any indication of a building Blue Wave for November could provide a big profit much faster. Not thinking of selling now--I have 50 as a consider taking profits price, which sounds about right.

Thomas C

4:11

Hi Roger...is the strength YTF in the Energy stocks viewed by you as temporary? Perhaps related to politics/wars? Thanks, Thomas

Roger Conrad

4:11

Hey Thomas. I'm not familiar with YTF and I'm not finding the symbol. Is that a typo? In case you're not still in the chat, drop us a line at service@capitalisttimes.com

Clay Montgomery

4:13

Hi Roger, I'm a new subscriber and I was at PowerGen, last week. I really learned a lot. It was great.

Roger Conrad

4:13

Hi Clay. Yes, I think it's always a good idea if you're investing in a sector to go to at least one energy event. I really enjoyed the Edison Electric Financial conference--putting faces with names.

Clay Montgomery

4:24

I really like your answer to Bur (above), but it seems clear that there is a shift in that data centers are being forced to build behind the meter and become generators, otherwise they have no credibility in the AI race. It seems to be a paradox?

Roger Conrad

4:24

I know people have been talking about this. And there was a pretty big selloff in some generators like Constellation Energy following that WSJ article. But I think the idea of Big Tech companies becoming power companies is way overhyped.

First, as we saw in NextEra Energy's earnings and guidance calls, utilities are still getting a tidal wave of new business. NEE had a fourth year of record new orders that accelerated in Q4. And all indications are other utilities and unregulated producer are going to announce the same the next few weeks.

Second, it wasn't that long ago that industrial companies left utility systems to self-generate--"cogeneration." And the result was a disaster. Building your own gas means you have to maintain the plant. And you have to do all procurement--fuel, parts etc--without the advantage of scale utilities have. Even if GEV builds and maintains, you've essentially entered a new business. And if your facility goes down, you don't have a grid connection to keep the lights on.

Roger Conrad

4:25

There is a large amount of generating capacity onsite at these data centers--much of it renewables plus storage. But again, it's being built by trusted third parties like NextEra, Constellation, Brookfield etc under contract--that's how Big Tech companies will control their power costs.

guest

4:30

PBF has moved in a broad range over the last several months. Is this a good long term hold or something to buy on dips and sell when it approaches previous highs? Appreciate recommendations on MLPs this year as they have really added value to my portfolio plus attractive dividends.

Roger Conrad

4:30

PBF like all refiners is in a pretty good place right now in the energy cycle--and as older capacity is shut down, what it has should become more valuable.

There are a couple of issues--one the outage at a California refinery that's necessitated considerable rebuilding. They report Feb 12 and should update then. We continue to favor the much larger Valero Energy, which today reported very strong Q4 and 2025 results--including the "best year for mechanical availability, personnel safety and environmental performance."

Thomas C

4:35

Thank You Roger and Elliot! This is an excellent service. Besides EIA and CUI, what are your other services you offer?

Elliott Gue

4:35

Thanks for the kind words about the services. Roger has a service called CUI + that includes some enhanced income coverage and a service called the REIT Sheet that covers Real Estate Investment Trusts, another income-oriented group. I write a service called Creating Wealth that offers more broad market coverage (not specifically targeted at energy or any other sector). And we also have two trading services -- CT Trader which seeks to profit from swing trades in individual stocks and ETFs and Elliott's Options, which recommends stock and ETF options -- call and put options -- also with an short to intermediate term "swing" investment horizon. If you're interested in any of these I believe we have some free trial and risk-free trial offers on some of them right now for our EIA/CUI readers.

guest

4:36

I bought a sizable position in KMI over five years ago when you recommended it for both growth and income as a long term hold. Now that KMI is over $30, is it time to take some off the table or is there still more upside. I have enjoyed the dividend income and not sure where else to put the gains at this time.

Roger Conrad

4:36

I think business wise Kinder is in a sweet spot. They have a record number of new projects to build long-term contracted assets that will not be weather or commodity price sensitive. And they're generating operating cash flow to cover both CAPEX and dividends with room to spare--which means funding for debt reduction, stock buybacks, acquisitions etc.

The stock is about 20% above the highest price I'd recommend paying for it ($25). And it's right at the price where I've it makes sense to consider taking a partial profit ($30). Given the last round of results, my profit taking target now is more like 35--which makes it more like a hold again. But I do think the MLPs are much better bargains now in midstream than C-Corps like KMI.

Arthur

4:45

Gentleman, please discuss LYB. I am curious about your opinions on its near- and long-term prospects. How secure do you think the dividend is? Also, would you keep or dump Stellantis and Sonos? Great calls on SWK and DNNG recently. Lastly, thoughts on TXN? Somehow, I got lucky, and it is my largest position. I trimmed a little bit earlier this week.

Roger Conrad

4:45

Hi Arthur. Lyondell is releasing its Q4 earnings and updating guidance tomorrow. I also expect them to update their intentions for the dividend, which management maintained the company had the strength to pay as recently as late November.

My intent has been to add it back to CUI Plus/Dividends Premium, depending on the numbers and what is said. If that's still the move, I will get an update out once I've had a chance to review.

Glad you were able to take advantage of Stanley Black & Decker and Orsted. I think there's more in the tank for both and looking forward to earnings in early Feb.

Automakers had a tough 2025. I still prefer Honda in the space for its cost structure and exposure to fast growing markets like motorcycles. Don't really know Sonos, though I have a system in my house. TXN is in good position in a number of markets and had a generally solid Q4 result announced earlier this week. It's not one I track and is expensive at 40X earnings--a momentum stock, maybe time to take some off.

Guest

4:49

Hi Roger, What's up with the Utility Investor website? I can't find the Utility Report card when I log in and the link in the last email takes me to a 2016 Utility report card coverage update article. Sorry for the technical distraction. Since I know you're here for questions.. any update on LYB? I've held this stock for years so I'm comfortable with the cyclicality. It's just after ARE dividend cut I'm also a bit gun shy. Jim

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