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11/25/25 Capitalist Times Live Chat

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Elliott Gue

2:46

that any glut is likely to be short lived around Qatar start-up in 2027.

DRG

2:47

Hi Elliott
Recent report from Citi paints a long-term LNG oversupply risk stemming from massive capacity build projected during the next couple of years and with US emerging as a dominant low-cost supplier. Add to that is the possibility, albeit remote, of sanction relief for Russian Oil and Gas export if peace can be brokered in the Russia-Ukraine war which will likely exacerbate the oversupply situation. Like to know your thoughts on that scenario and its impact on US major players in the LNG export space – the likes of EXE, CQP and VG.

Elliott Gue

2:47

Thanks, this looks like a duplicate question -- I covered it just above.

Frank

3:01

I know you've said in the past that geopolitical events have a short term effect on oil/gas prices, but if Ukraine & Russia gets a peace deal will that have a lasting effect on prices

Elliott Gue

3:01

I don't think so. Russia has already been selling its oil on the global market to willing buyers like India. The simple fact is that the global economy can't function without Russian volumes. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been more about a shift in trade flows rather than a loss of actual Russian volumes. As for gas, I think it would take a considerable time for Russia to restore gas volumes to Europe and European countries will likely remain reluctant to rely to heavily on Russian volumes again because it their Russian import reliance has cost them dearly the past few years. Also, keep in mind that I suspect Russia has been underinvesting in its fields the past few years and that typically takes some time to reverse -- producing oil and gas requires ongoing investment, it's not just a matter of turning on the taps.

Mark

3:10

Hi Elliott, I notice that that Smart Bonds recommendation HYXU has had (or soon will have) a slight change in investment objective and a new ticker. I'd guess that it still fills the particular niche, but wondered if you planned any change with it?

Elliott Gue

3:10

Yes, the symbol and strategy changed. There are two main changes. First, the fund now focuses solely on European high-yield, which isn't a big shift because that was their most important allocation all along. Second, they're now hedging their currency exposure, which they didn't do previously. To be honest, I'd prefer they didn't make that second change because I like to have a bit of an embedded currency play in there as well. For now, I'm maintaining the recommendation there because it does fill a useful niche in the portfolio, it's been a strong performer for the portfolio and I don't see many attractive alternatives to fit the same niche in the. I have an update for SB likely to go out over the weekend or early next week with more detail but that's the gist of my take.

Hans

3:14

Elliott, With the Ukraine/Russia peace progress and possible settlement, what effect will Russian oil impact have on the world oil market and price. Thanks

Elliott Gue

3:14

I don't think it'll have any meaningful impact. Geopolitical headlines are always overdone. Oil prices surged when Russia invaded Ukraine but peaked a few months later and fell sharply due, in part, to the fact that Russian production and exports actually increased after the invasion. There was no impact on supply -- just a shift of exports from Europe to India. An end to the conflict also won't have any discernible impact on supply because Russia has been exporting all along. meanwhile, with oil prices sub-$60 and speculators very bearish, I think the bigger risk is that oil rallies on a peace deal as the shorts use the news as an opportunity to cover shorts.

Frank F

3:24

Hi

Roger has mentioned that he will be looking at Canadian companies in the future, but I happened to stumble across Topaz Energy (TPZEF) a royalty company spun off from Tourmaline, so I expect it's a Western Canada "gassy" play. Payout looks to be at the lower end of their 60-90% payout and growing nicely. With Canadian NG prices low is there any upside here with LNG to Asia or will the best LNG plays remain in the U.S.?

Thanks

Roger Conrad

3:24

Hi Frank. I have not looked at it, though we do track Tourmaline in the "Canada and Australia" coverage universe. The current table posted on the EIA website under the "Portfolios" tab has updated payout ratios and debt/capital for Q3 results and guidance.

Topaz looks pretty solid and is a larger entity than either of the two royalty trusts we have in the High Yield Energy List--BSM and DMLP. I think the LNG export infrastructure on the west coast is huge for Canadian gas producers--and should eventually close the price discount between Henry Hub (US) and AECO. That's good news for Topaz. We will consider adding it to coverage. Thanks for bringing it to our attention,

Ben F.

3:29

Elliott and Roger -

Thank you for all the hard work.

Thoughts on Franco-Nevada?

Cheers

Elliott Gue

3:29

In my view, FNV and WPM are the two best precious metals royalty and streaming companies. I've recommended WPM in our longer-term services and, if memory serves, we have also traded WPM in CT Trader on a shorter-intermediate term basis. I'm still biased on the long side on both names as I think precious metals have more upside ahead. I am particularly bullish on silver where my ultimate target is $100/oz. (I didn't pull that number of out thin air -- I explained my rationale in a Substack piece I wrote a couple of months ago) . One reason I like WPM is that they actually have significant leverage to silver specifically, which I think is overlooked. One word of warning: As Sun Tzu said "Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat." From a tactical perspective, silver and gold prices have had a nice run and, in silver's case we're right into resistance from the January 1980 peak (45 years ago). So, I have recommended lightening up on WPM as well

Elliott Gue

3:29

as SLV (Silver ETF) in the longer term services. In the trading services -- both CT Trader and Elliott's Options -- we booked partial gains on longstanding trades in SLV and SLV calls. So, I do think there could be some volatility/consolidation near term -- some gut-checks for holders -- but the longer term picture is bright.

Donna

3:30

Thank you for putting together a concise write up for REITs. While it’s been a tough year for most of them, I continue to receive dividends. Barrons recently profiled Americold Realty Trust COLD in their Oct 6 issue. Their thesis is that the stock is significantly undervalued trading below its asset value. With a 7% yield it is tempting. Your summary shows it as a hold. Wondering why you have hold and they (and Morningstar) rate it as a strong buy?

Roger Conrad

3:30

Hi Donna. I can't speak for Morningstar. But I rated it hold mainly because the industry faces some considerable headwinds from cost pressures and competing capacity--which has eroded same store sales recently. Distribution coverage looks solid at current levels of cash flow. But I'm a little wary of projecting that out--since Americold is as much an operating company getting third parties to use its spaces in an at least somewhat cyclical business as it is a real estate owner.

I am intrigued by it--which is why I added it to coverage. And I could see recommending it at some point. But I would like to see revenue growth turn positive. And I would also rate it as a more aggressive stock than say Mid-American Apartment--which is also very cheap at its current price.

Bill D.

3:38

and thoughts on Val and peyuf

Elliott Gue

3:38

I'll leave comments on PEYUF for Roger and I don't follow that name as closely as he does.

As for VAL, I am watching this name closely. They're a contract driller with a focus on ultra-deepwater drilliships -- basically these look like ocean-going vessels with a huge drilling rig on top of them. They're an advanced piece of equipment needed to drill some of the complex deepwater fields around the world particularly in the "Golden Triangle," which is offshore west Africa, the Gulf of America and offshore Latin America including Brazil and Guyana. On their last call they discussed some signs of strengthening demand/contracting rigs at attractive rates and further in the future. I think this could be a (very) early sign of the new exploration and development cycle we referenced in our oil-focused issue back in October. So, not yet ready to add but its one of the names that sits atop my watchlist.

Norman G.

3:38

Roger, Appreciate your monthly live chats. I've noticed the recent sell-off re: TU. Would appreciate your thoughts regarding the stock/company and advisability of buying at this lower price. Thanks.

Roger Conrad

3:38

Hi Norman. Part of what you're seeing at Telus' NYSE-listed shares is the Canadian dollar--which has again come under 70 US cents and has given up roughly half the gains it had made since January.

The company as I reported in the November CUI is coming off a solid Q3, from which management raised guidance for 2025 as well as the dividend. I think Wall Street has basically ignored that. And the prevailing narrative for Canadian telecom is competition and tough regulation will mean weaker 2026 guidance--when companies issue it early next year. Telus did for 2025 in February.

I'm not happy about the drop in the stock price. But I think its an over reaction and I look for the company to continue proving its resilience.

Eric F.

3:43

Hey Roger, can you talk about your opinion on Slate grocery SRRTF, thanks for your time :-)

Roger Conrad

3:43

Hi Eric. I cover it in the REIT Sheet. And the "Commentary" column in the November issue that posted this morning has a synopsis of what's important with Q3 earnings. Basically, it's a solid grocery-anchored shopping mall REIT--similar to Kimco, which I featured this month. Slate is Canadian, so its return is affected by the CAD/USD exchange rate. Slate is also more concentrated by tenants--with Kroger at 9.2% of rents and Wal-Mart at 9%. I also like the fact that in place rent is just 53% of the market average for where it operates. I rate it a hold currently. But I would consider raising that to buy on a dip to USD10 or lower.

Jack A

3:50

Hi Elliott:

I'm trying to understand why ET, which has been a favorite of Energy Income and Investor's, has lagged so much this year. There is a statement in your latest report, discussing earnings of ET that states "the primary driver of volume growth remains system expansion, which has offset producer customers’ conservative levels of CAPEX". Could ,explain what that means?

Roger Conrad

3:50

Hi Jack. What that means is Energy Transfer has been building new assets and acquiring others--including whole companies--the past few years. These additional assets transport, process, gather, store and distribute energy, which has been adding to ET's midstream system volumes.

"Producers' conservative levels of CAPEX" means that companies like EQT and others are pumping natural gas and oil at levels that make sense to their cost structure at current commodity prices. And right now, relatively low prices have meant there's less capital spending (CAPEX) on production--which means less volume growth for Energy Transfer's systems.

Producers are pumping less to ET's system--but that's being more than offset at the bottom line by the fact the company is adding more assets.

And yes, ET is still a favorite of mine. And I think the last 4 years' uptrend will resume as oil and gas prices push up. Meantime, you get a growing 8% dividend.

Nolan C.

3:50

I saw your answer to a person on the live chat [2:39 pm.] about BITI which I bought on 6-3-23 on your recommendation. Have not heard anything about it since
I also have not heard anything about UBT-SARK-or UCO so I guess they are all sold or dumped.

Elliott Gue

3:50

My response earlier in the chat was about a potential new long-side trade in IBIT (long bitcoin), not on BITI (short bitcoin). We recommended a trade on BITI back in 2023 and traded out of part of the position, but still have a small position in BITI remaining in our trading service. The remaining BITI position is sitting on a loss, but our view has been that it's such a small holding we would rather wait for a more sizable sell-off in bitcoin to exit. We have traded in and out of UCO several times in the last year but are still long UCO off the most recent buy recommendation in September I believe (may have been august). UBT is still a name we hold in the CT Trader portfolio and we remain bullish on bonds (believe yields are going to drop). In CT Trader we tend to scale in and out of positions -- we start with a small position and add to it and then sell off partial positions as the trade evolves. But we always send out an alert when we believe it's time to exit.

Hans

3:51

Elliott, Any thought of investing in a Critical Minerals mining company?

Elliott Gue

3:51

It's a name that's popped up on my screens as a potential trade a few times. However in my view it's just too speculative and overhyped. I haven't dug into the fundamentals much but will add it to my list of names to check out.

Kerry T

3:57

Hello Roger, Elliott & Sherry:

Happy Thanksgiving!

Can you comment on TU, NPIFF and VG. I own all three and they've all suffered from price declines lately. I'm wondering if I should add more or just hold onto what I have now.

Roger Conrad

3:57

Happy Thanksgiving. I don't have much to add to what I said about Telus a couple question back. But again, the guidance boost with Q3 earnings is pretty good evidence of resilience, as is continued dividend growth. And I think they'll continue to prove it in 2026 despite some competitive headwinds.

Northern Power is in the middle of a heavy CAPEX phase, focused on several offshore wind projects that appear to have taken longer and cost more than management was guiding to. So earlier this month, they announced a dividend cut to hold in more cash to self-fund development. I think the selloff was an overreaction and the long-term growth plan is still on track.

Venture Global appears to be seeing some residual weakness from concerns about litigation from BP and Shell, which appears to be trying to revive its case following BP's victory. We highlighted these issues in the November EIA--along with the case for aggressive, patient investors sticking with it. The LNG capacity is needed.

3:59

May I get your thoughts on EOG resources and how it's business and the stock may perform moving forward?

Elliott Gue

3:59

We recommend EOG and I regard it as one of our core holdings long-term in EIA. They're an excellent operator, which seems adept at identifying high return acreage in their core plays. They're also very conservative when it comes to debt, which I like. I think the stock has underperformed recently mainly because they made their first big acquisition in years recently (Encino) and investors are always a little cautious around big deals. I would say that we probably see more immediate upside catalysts in other recommendations like PR on the oil side or EXE/EQT on the gas side. However, we continue to believe EOG is an outstanding holding with a 12-18 month time horizon. In the past they have been outstanding at integrating acquisitions and I see no reason why that won't be the case this time around.

das555

4:04

Single best idea for new money today?

Elliott Gue

4:04

Very tough question to answer. But, within energy, I do think that people are way, way too bearish oil here and PR is a solid play that offers a nice yield while you wait. From a more trading-oriented perspective, a name we've been recommending in both CT Trader and Elliott's Options is Comstock. A little too speculative for EIA in my view though I did offer the bull case in that November 13th issue. It's a gassy name, tight consolidation and heavy short interest -- we think we could retest those summer highs up over $30 later this year. Not for the faint of heart thigh.

Dan N.

4:05

Hi Roger - thanks again for hosting these monthly chats!

Following the rejection of the Aquarion sale by CT regulators, I saw your comment in the alert that HTO would be a logical next buyer. I can see that HTO has expansion ambitions, but a concern: wouldn't the acquisition be really big relative to the existing size of HTO? They haven't completed their Houston deal yet. How much expansion can they finance at one time with market or lender support?

Roger Conrad

4:05

Hi Dan. Actually, there may not be a sale of Aquarion after all. After I'd sent the Alert, EverSource did issue a statement, which I commented on in my "Dividends Roundtable" Substack column on Sunday "NVIDIA or Eversource?" In it, they affirmed the 2025 earnings guidance they'd raised earlier this month, as well as 5-7% annual earnings growth.

Management also said that they had anticipated the possibility of rejection--and had preemptively issued equity and debt earlier this year, which I do in hindsight recall. Keep in mind that EverSource has been dealing with New England regulation for a long time--and the past several years, it's been tilting investment towards Massachusetts (Boston area) and New Hampshire, rather than Connecticut where returns are less sure.

The decision was therefore disappointing but not disastrous. And now that the Revolution Wind liability is almost behind the utility, the need for the $1.6 billion from the Aquarion sale is less critical--especially since that unit is profitable.

Roger Conrad

4:08

As for HTO being able to fund a deal, it would be a challenge as you say for a company with a market cap of $1.7 bil--in fact EverSource at one time was considering buying Connecticut Water before the former SJW emerged as a white knight. But these things tend to get done when the terms make sense. And HTO would basically be a scale player in the state if it were able to buy. But i am comfortable with EverSource holding onto Aquarion.

Dan N.

4:14

Hi Roger. 1. Your thoughts on the recent dividend cut at NPIFF? I don't really have a big problem with it, given that it's a capital-intensive business and the payout ratio had been hovering near 100% while they complete offshore wind projects, so reducing the payout ratio to closer to 60% can just be prudent. Any reason to change the overall business case and buy recommendations?

I picked up a bunch more NPIFF when the price cratered to 12, but I'm also cautiously skeptical of the new management sales pitch that they will now be able to boost margins in a greater number of growth projects. I thought a consistent narrative in renewable power now is that there are so many players bidding on projects that companies need some serious scale or a unique advantage (e.g. interconnection access a la NEE and XPLR) to earn higher returns.

Roger Conrad

4:14

Hi Dan. I addressed Northern Power briefly in an answer to a multi-stock question a bit earlier in the chat. Bottom line is companies with big development programs are turning to dividend cuts to internally fund a greater share of projects in what I've called a "higher for longer" borrowing cost environment. I don't think they took this step lightly. And they almost certainly knew the reaction in the stock price wouldn't be favorable--though maybe they didn't think it would be this extreme!

Northern Power had been covering dividends and CAPEX with free cash flow--despite some pretty big projects. That had led me (wrongly as it turns out) to assume they would continue to pay the dividend at the current rate, if for no other reasons than they could afford it and to preserve the ability to issue some equity. I think that's pretty much out now. And I'm a little concerned if that will force another financing retrenchment.

Roger Conrad

4:17

As for the narrative that too many players are bidding for renewable energy projects and dragging down margins, I don't see that in the current market. Even before the Trump Administration phased out wind and solar tax credits, the number of significant players in North American renewables development had contracted significantly. And others have now retreated from the space. Now you have companies like BEP talking about being able to pass through the additional cost of losing tax credits into contracts.

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