JotCast | 2017 ALDS Game 5 Live Blog

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druidiful

9:06

I wonder if that divot is going to come into play on a ground ball later.

Mike

9:07

So when you said you thought the Dodgers have the best chance of the WS at this point, is that just due to already being in the NLCS where they are favored over either CHC or WAS, or do you think they're favored against Cleveland or Houston or NYY?

In other words, is it an likelihood of playing in the series or an actual advantage once they're there in your mind? Fangraphs and 538 projections both have them as underdogs to the the AL

Dave Cameron

9:07

I think they're the best team in baseball, and the first round sweep gives them a nice rest advantage heading forward.

9:08

Any team already in an LCS is more likely to win it all than a team still in the DS too.

Joe

9:08

So, Dave, you would really, as manager, pull CC now?

Dave Cameron

9:08

Yes.

Assuming I could get buy in from the players on the move.

If it caused the locker room to revolt, then no.

Steve O

9:08

For who?

Dave Cameron

9:09

I'd go Green for 2, Robertson for 2, Chapman for 2, Kahnle if anyone got in trouble.

Joe

9:09

Aren't the odds that one of those 4 guys doesn't have it?

Dave Cameron

9:10

No.

Despite people making this claim regularly, there's no evidence that this is a thing.

Nick

9:10

if you're pulling CC right now you'd be burned by the NY media if they lose

Dave Cameron

9:11

If you're managing to the media response, you're doing it wrong.

J. Girardi

9:12

but Dave, aren't you the media?

Dave Cameron

9:12

They shouldn't do it to make me happy either!

Tommy toms

9:12

Sure there is. Assuming "having it" is independent between pitchers. The probability of one not having it increases quickly by pitcher. If we assume 50% probability of each pitcher "having it" that means 12.5% chance all 3 pitchers do.

Dave Cameron

9:13

You've invented a fiction that pitchers "don't have it" regularly.

GDUB

9:13

For the question "aren't the odd that one of those guys doesn't have it" Is the answer more accuratly just that the odds of one of them not having it is not greater than the odds of CC not having it in his next inning?

Dave Cameron

9:13

Nope. Data on this is pretty clear.

Joe

9:14

What about the chance that there is just something about CC tonight that the Indians aren't seeing well?

Dave Cameron

9:14

What about the chances the flying spaghetti monster wants the Indians tow in?

noseeum

9:14

Is there researching showing an SP who goes a perfect 3 innings is likely to sh*t the bed in the 4th? I just think you're being a little extreme here. We all get the point and agree: Use your bullpen. But isn't there something to be said for having even more of an advantage if you only need 5 or 4 innings from the pen rather than 6?

Dave Cameron

9:15

Early game performance is noise, not signal.

You shouldn't really change your strategy much based on what your SP is doing.

Unless he's throwing 5 mph slower or something.

Factory of Sadness

9:16

"When the pitcher does X, they're 21 games ulcer .500. When the pitcher does not-X, somehow they're 21 games under .500!!! It's incredible!" -Matt Vasgersian

Hello Dave

9:16

What the hell is Matt talking about?

9:16

Lol this broadcast

Evan

9:16

I know criticizing the announcers has become a bit trite, but this is some grade A BS that they are shoveling about long pitching outings and winning percentage.

Springer am Rand

9:16

Isn't this "winning percentage when starter goes X" stuff on the broadcast just mistaking correlation for causation?

Mike

9:16

Matt is speaking literal flaming garbage into the air to confuse people everywhere.

druidiful

9:17

When your pitcher pitches well, the team generally does well.

M. Vasgersian

9:18

This will be controversial, but when you score more runs than the opposing team, you tend to win

Dewey

9:18

Are they arguing that Kluber should stay in just because? He certainly is not pitching well enough to stay in.

Dave Cameron

9:18

They just don't understand baseball in 2017.

Dewey

9:20

I understand why they are hesitant to take out CC, but they can see Kluber is laboring. If they weren't so interested in making a point today, they would be supporting taking Kluber out of the game.

9:20

It shouldn't even pass the sniff test, so if both starters go 6 innings does that mean both teams have a .650 winning percentage?

9:20

Kluber worn out or just weird baseball?

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