JotCast | 2018 Opening Day Very Long Chat

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Eric A Longenhagen

4:16

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/what-to-expect-from-the-pa...

Yelich

4:16

Finally realize my power potential in MIL. I'm not asking you. I'm telling you.

Travis Sawchik

4:17

I believe you could get to 30 ... dropped GB% by five points in each of the last two years

bonnie

4:17

Didn't someone already write that piece on fangraphs?

Jay Jaffe

4:17

Jeff Sullivan wrote one https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-home-run-record-could-be-broken-tw..., which isn't to say that there's not more to be said

Lunar verLander

4:17

So who'll be writing the "after 1 day of games, it is clear that the home run record will be broken again" article?

Travis Sawchik

4:18

I think Jeff wrote that this spring

Jay Jaffe

4:18

Ben Lindbergh already wrote a piece for The Ringer about spring training rates being predictive of season rates league-wide. And guess which direction they're going?

Eric A Longenhagen

4:19

It's only going to keep increasing as player dev implements biomechanical science to increase velo in pitchers and swing leverage for hitters

Travis Sawchik

4:20

Probably new HR, K, velo, spin, bullpen usage records this season

And forever

By 2030, there will be no balls in play

Eric A Longenhagen

4:20

Like, at some point I think baseball is going to have an aesthetics crisis on their hands because the game is going to look very monochromatic.

bonnie

4:21

i think jeff wrote 2 pieces (plus the one linked by jay) on the spring hr rates. jeff writes a lot.

Jay Jaffe

4:21

I can't keep up with Jeff, he's literally always writing. Makes the rest of us look like lazy bums

Travis Sawchik

4:22

The prolific Jeff Sullivan

BATsman

4:22

You guys listening to music while you watch games? I don't want to listen to color guys talk about what they would have done in the current situation. Give me some suggestions!

Jay Jaffe

4:22

Not today, not with a TV, iPad and chat going. I've got enough trouble making sure I can handle all that.

alpha309

4:23

Jay, while Cys normally have a better election rate than champs, wouldn't you assume that Lester gets additional bonuses for his rings because they were on the Sox and Cubs teams that broke the "curses"?

Travis Sawchik

4:23

TV needs better analysts, for sure

Jay Jaffe

4:24

the Red Sox won in 2004 without Lester. He helped them win their 2nd in 2007. So color me skeptical he gets that much of a boost.

Travis Sawchik

4:24

ALTUVE ALERT (Bases loaded)

Update: sac fly, 2-0 Astros

Jay Jaffe

4:24

TV needs better analysts but I've spent the past 5 months not listening to baseball, I can handle a bit of patter

Captain K

4:26

Aside from Kershaw which SPs have an interesting/realistic HOF case?

Jay Jaffe

4:27

I've written about this several times. On the sad occasion of Ray Halladay's passing, I put together a table of JAWS and trad stats. https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/11/08/roy-halladay-death-plane-crash-hall-... Revisited the topic a few times over the winter, including my Johan Santana HOF candidate profile and something right after the playoffs for guys like Kershaw, Verlander and Greinke.

Travis Sawchik

4:27

fwiw, Manfred pushing for 32 teams on Rangers telecast

Jay Jaffe

4:28

all with a runner on second base from the outset.

Dave

4:28

Stanton's exit velo on that HR was 117.3, hardest oppo ever tracked by Statcast.... mercy.

Travis Sawchik

4:28

!!!

Manfred on pace: "Gotta take care of dead time first"

Eric A Longenhagen

4:28

LOL

FUROKU

4:29

Why doesn't my Roku TV allow dual screen options with MLB.tv ... why does MLB.tv have a different interface for every device I use it on?

Travis Sawchik

4:29

Re: Pace, so keep batters in the box ...

Jay Jaffe

4:29

Why is a Toyota not a Honda?

4:32

How far does Bumgarner have to go for the HOF? Assuming he stops with these odd injuries

Jay Jaffe

4:33

A long ways. Obviously, he has some postseason credentials that will help but he's only got 31.5 career rWAR, including hitting as a pitcher (which is in JAWS), and 104 wins. He's only had one season of at least 5.0 rWAR; those low-ERA seasons kind of come out in the wash when you factor in AT&T Park. When you consider the HOF Peak standard is about 7 WAR... he needs to pick up the pace and it's tough to do that when you keep getting hurt.

FUROKU

4:33

@Jay Jaffe - I couldn't car less

Jay Jaffe

4:33

(tugboat noise)

Ham Bone

4:33

This is still the most terrifying Stanton oppo HR:

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