JotCast | 2023-24 Top 50 Free Agents Live Chat With Tim Dierkes

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Tim Dierkes

10:16

Yeah I think so. The Angels are a good fit for that previous question about a team that wasn't generally our top pick on top FA but could certainly sign any of them. Anthony has pointed out that we're all probably discounting too much the chance that Ohtani is really comfortable there and actually will stay.

And then if you're a team making competitive Ohtani bids, you're technically capable of signing any FA. We do think letting Ohtani walk and signing Snell would be pretty funny though.

Tyler Michels

10:17

Hey Tim, do you expect White Sox to be aggressive in the Free Agent market? A ton of holes to fill

Tim Dierkes

10:17

They almost have to be, but Getz figures to be a big part of the trade market as well. Feels like Eloy could go, possibly Cease. That could fill a lot of holes. I see them more likely to do a bunch of smaller deals than $80MM+ deals (which they literally never have done).

Home Is Where the Heart Is

10:18

Is Joey Votto coming home to replace Brandon Belt as the Blue Jays lefty hitting DH/1B type?

Tim Dierkes

10:18

He seems less likely than Belt to produce. But certainly could see this homecoming, I think it'd be sub-10 mil.

Lunar verLander

10:19

Financial commitment aside, is there any team where Ohtani *wouldn't* fit (e.g., full rotation locked up for multiple years, pre-existing semi-permanent DH, etc.)?

Tim Dierkes

10:20

He'd be a little tricky on the Astros, the team with the closest thing to an immovable awesome DH in Yordan Alvarez. Immovable in the sense of, do you really wanna mess with Alvarez and have him play 1100 innings in LF?

That said it's not as if the Astros would be mad to have this problem.

10:21

Mega-podcast just dropped. This was really fun, please check it out: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/mlbtr-podcast-top-50-free-agent...

The GM

10:21

It’s me. The big GM of a team. I’m here. In the chat. Please tell me what to do.

Tim Dierkes

10:21

Sign that guy. No, the other one

Brian Cashman

10:21

It's not that farfetched my 2023 team makes the playoffs without the fluky injuries to Judge and Rizzo. So how many spots should I realistically be looking to fill? SP2/3, Left, Center? What about 3B?

Tim Dierkes

10:22

I am not sure I'd consider injuries to Judge and Rizzo to be flukey. Like, I know a concussion is, but I don't necessarily consider either a 150 game guy in 2024.

10:23

The Yankees seem pretty desperate. Look up Cashman's sparring with reporters yesterday. After 25 years of this he seems pretty stressed out. I can see them doing some irrational stuff.

10:24

I am a bit behind on GM meetings commentary but I think he said he wants two OF, which makes sense. The need for a top SP also makes sense. 3B they are perhaps stuck w LeMahieu and limited by the market. If you wanted to plug a Jeimer in there though I'd find it plausible.

A.A.

10:25

Do I sign a starter with the QO attached, losing 2 picks and international money?

Tim Dierkes

10:27

History tells us that with Alex Anthopoulos and the Braves, signing another team's qualified free agent is on the table. He did it with Will Smith four years ago and Marcell Ozuna in January 2020.

belly button

10:27

if bellinger issue from 20 thru 22 was performance how can he get such a huge contract off one year and if it was injury how can you go long and expensive on someone who couldnt hit 4 3 years in his 20s due to injury

Tim Dierkes

10:28

Short answer is recency bias and good marketing. The argument is: he was bad due to injury, he's healthy now and 2023 proves it, it was actually only two years that he was a terrible hitter, and he's young and athletic.

10:29

The 30% of us in the 210 and up camp: we think Boras successfully sells this narrative to one team. The other 70% think he fails and Belli gets like a sub-Kris Bryant contract.

I think we need another poll. Let me think here...

10:31

Who signs Ohtani?

Angels (3.2% | 7 votes)

Blue Jays (1.8% | 4 votes)

Cubs (5% | 11 votes)

Dodgers (50.5% | 110 votes)

Giants (15.6% | 34 votes)

Mariners (9.6% | 21 votes)

Mets (0.9% | 2 votes)

Padres (2.8% | 6 votes)

Rangers (7.3% | 16 votes)

Red Sox (3.2% | 7 votes)

Total Votes: 218

Sorry, I wanted to add Yankees and Other but they only let me do 10 choices.

10:32

With the Dodgers seemingly dominating this poll, I want to express my lack of confidence that the Dodgers actually sign him. I think we all agree it checks every box. I also think "the field" is a pretty strong vote and we don't actually know the Dodgers' appetite for the largest contract in MLB history.

Chris

10:33

Does the lack of qualifying offers for guys like Soler, Hernandez, Garver, suggest a more tepid free agent market for hitters? Should we expect a relatively dry market for that tier of players?

Tim Dierkes

10:34

I think each case must be taken individually. Marlins: haven't paid a FA more than $15 mil since the ill-fated Wei-Yin Chen deal. Mariners: trying to get away from the Ks. Rangers: probably want to retain Garver but A) don't see him as a $20MM player and B) can't tie up DH on Nov 6 if they think they have a shot at Ohtani.

10:35

All of those players benefit from not getting a QO, especially Teoscar who I thought would.

Now Yankees can’t get Ohtani

10:35

Well done, Tim.

Saul Good Man

10:35

I think people forget that each contract prediction is for what the one team that likes a guy most will get sold on...not the median contract offered by all suitors or the one that's most sensible. That's what my MLBTR is always higher...and closer...than most other prediction outlets.

Tim Dierkes

10:36

Hey flattery is nice. Thank you. I will offer the counter point that we absolutely whiff on guys. Usually if we whiff on a star player it's historically because we were too low. Definitely true last winter.

A couple of stars we were way high on:

Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.

10:37

we said 14/420 on Harper, he got 13/330. Said 13/390 on Machado, he got 10/300.

That was a great example of the market behaving in an irrational way I still don't understand. Those contracts simply should not have stopped where they did - yet that is what happened.

Jason

10:38

The main reason why I predict Ohtani going somewhere besides LAD is the insistence they are the slam dunk consensus pick for pretty much everybody. What fun is that? I think he'll throw everybody a curveball and go somewhere random. My dark horse pick is Seattle. It looks like they are just being cheap to be cheap these last couple off-seasons but it is a franchise that splurged on Cano once upon a time. You could argue they are saving up for Ohtani just as much as LAD is

Tim Dierkes

10:38

I like that. We tend to make the boring picks if we feel they check every box, but this should not imply actual confidence.

Michael

10:38

All the public defensive metrics have Cody Bellinger at below average in center. How is he still being touted as gold glove caliber out there?

Tim Dierkes

10:39

Far as I know Statcast OAA is considered the best defensive metric. He's been above average in that consistently: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cody-bellinger-641355?sta...

guest

10:39

10/300 for Machado is ridiculous. That's a steal. Any players this year where the market shorts them irrationally?

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