You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
2024 FanGraphs Wild Card Chat
powered byJotCast
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:31
Good afternoon, folks!
2:32
Welcome to the first leg of our staff Wild Card chat. I just updated my Padres-Braves preview to reflect Chris Sale being left off the roster, and both Bryce Elder and A.J. Smith-Shawver being included as possible Game 1 options for later tonight.
I believe Ben Clemens and Matt Martell will be joining us here shortly, with Dan Szymborski and Davy Andrews coming along later
2:33
Our first game today pits the upstart Tigers against the deathless Astros, with likely AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal starting against the battle-tested Framber Valdez
Ben Clemens
2:33
Hey Jay, hey everyone
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
Hello, Ben!
Ben Clemens
2:34
Looking forward to a great game today
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
Here's Jake Mailhot's preview for the Houston-Detroit series https://blogs.fangraphs.com/american-league-wild-card-preview-detroit-...
SD Sports Fan
2:34
Thank you to the one fangraphs writer who picked the Braves. ESPN/Athletic was a clean sweep which makes me extremely nervous with the SD sports history.
Ben Clemens
2:34
You're welcome!
I too felt weird about a clean sweep
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:35
Here's the staff picks to which SD Sports Fan and Ben allude  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/heres-whos-maybe-going-to-win-the-2024-wor...
Ben Clemens
2:36
It's very weird for Justin Verlander to not be on the Astros roster - but I understand why it's the case
Bob
2:36
If the underdog teams wins the first game in a three game series, how much does that move the needle for those teams to pull off an upset?
Ben Clemens
2:36
A lot!
Let's say you're a huge underdog, 33% in every game
2:37
Before the series, you'd be like 25%** to pull it off, just assuming i.i.d
Win the first game, and you're 55%
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
Here's my preview of Padres-Braves. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nl-wild-card-series-preview-san-diego-padr... I never considered picking Atlanta to win given the state of their pitching staff, but if they can steal Game 1, the Padres could be in real trouble. They don't hit lefties, and Max Fried is the obvious choice to start Game 2 on four days of rest.
Justin
2:38
How does it make you guys feel to hear your playoff odds cited constantly on national tv?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
It's always cool to hear our/see work cited
Ben Clemens
2:39
Completely agree
Archer
2:39
Who had “Andy Ibanez batting cleanup in a postseason game” on their preseason bingo card?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:39
pretty sure the Easter Bunny had it.
Ben Clemens
2:39
The Detroit and Kansas City lineups are really something else
I did the O's/Royals preview and I just couldn't imagine all the players I had to write about
2:40
Yuli Gurriel?!? In this economy?!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
The funniest part of my SD-ATL preview was in cycling through the Braves' three reported options for Game 1. I forgot Ian Anderson even existed. Poor guy faded and was optioned in late 2022, then underwent TJ surgery last April. Was digging into minor league statcast data on him and, boy, he is not ready to return to prime time.
Justin
2:42
About the braves, I feel like they've had a lack of depth for years without addressing it. Remember them starting a rookie with a few career innings in the world series? This keeps happening
Ben Clemens
2:43
When we wrote about depth before the year, we highlighted the Braves for this exact reason. They're extremely shallow, in terms of the delta between their best players and the way the lineup looks if those players need to be replaced. But on the other hand, they're resilient, in that a Braves team missing damn near everybody still made the playoffs
Ben Clemens
2:43
I'm not really sure which of those two is a better way of describing them
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
The Rasputin of playoff teams
NG
2:44
Seems like a perfect day for Atlanta Jesse Chavez (the definitive best Jesse Chavez) to throw 5 scoreless
Ben Clemens
2:44
I was shocked not to see him in either game yesterday
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
i fully expect to see a lot of him in this series
2:45
that guy is never going to say no to taking the ball
Doug
2:45
Are the Padres holding back Cease for a winner-take-all/NLDS Game 1 or just trust King/Musgrove more at this point?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
I think they'd like the option of opening the DS with Cease and they trust the other two. Both have thrown VERY well in the 2nd half
Jeremy
2:46
Is "situational hitting" a repeatable skill that the Guardians have in spades? Or are they really a .500 team that just so happened to cluster their hits to an extraordinary extent?
Ben Clemens
2:46
I'd say that this is a million dollar question, but it's more dollars than that. Trust me, lots of people have tried to find mathematical evidence of this as a repeatable skill, and haven't been able to find it
Load More Messages
Connecting…