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2024 FanGraphs Wild Card Chat
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Ben Clemens
2:47
That doesn't mean that it does not exist. It does mean that the effect size is likely small
I'm fairly sure it exists to a non-zero extent.... it's just, not to an extent where you can look at a team and go 'oh, yep, add five wins to their projection b/c they know how to hit behind the runner'
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
Yeah. I think that there are players better equipped for the situation wrt focus and mental state, but the variance on batted ball results still makes it very hard to find a consistent effect
Ben Clemens
2:48
I don't know what Strauss is, but I'm fairly sure I'll be really tired of it within a day
Bunk
2:49
Which team that didn't make the playoffs do you think would have been the toughest out had they made it in?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
That Mariners rotation would have given them a real shot, i think.
Ben Clemens
2:49
Agreed, Jay. Nightmare rotation to face.
Ben Clemens
2:49
'30 home runs will come real easy' has been declared for Spencer Torkelson, btw. I'd want to learn more about the fences in Toledo before I made that prediction so confidently
Guest
2:50
If your team had to win one playoff game, who would you want starting?  I think I'd go Paul Skenes, myself.
Ben Clemens
2:50
Yeah, Skenes for me. I've been completely Skenes-pilled at this point.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
Well it ain't Chris Sale...
Ben Clemens
2:51
It could be! Your wants would just be ignored
Jeremy
2:52
Feels like a pretty top-heavy playoffs? FG combined WS odds for Phils/Yanks/Dodgers/Astros/Padres is 70% or so, but feels like it should be even higher? Every other team outside those five just feels pretty short on talent and/or has some giant hole.
Ben Clemens
2:53
It feels that way. My counterpoint would be: baseball playoffs are extremely small sample. Weirdo teams win all the time. The Rangers last year were long shots. The Braves in '21, Nats in '19, etc.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
Every one of those teams except the Dodgers has impressive rotation depth, and their lineup has been so good lately.
Guest
2:52
Which team's post-season appearance is most surprising to you?  Lots of potential options in KC, DET, NYM, etc
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
By our preseason odds, the Royals at 13.2% were the biggest longshot, with the Tigers and Mets both more than double those odds. I'm still pretty shocked by all three, frankly.
Ben Clemens
2:53
The Tigers have succeeded in a way we didn't expect, but I feel like they were buzzy coming into the year
2:54
The Royals? I did NOT see this one coming
Jeremy
2:54
Counterpoint to "the Mariners would've been a nightmare to face if they'd made the playoffs": if the Mariners were really such a nightmare to face, they'd have come a lot closer to making the playoffs. I highly doubt that teams with great starting pitching tend to outperform their projections in the playoffs.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
The Mariners missed by one win and some tiebreaker stuff.
Ben Clemens
2:55
Eh.... they did come pretty close. They won one less game than the Royals and Tigers, and they didn't get to dunk on the White Sox all year. Their offense has been a lot better after the acquisitions they made, too: if the current squad played a full season, they'd be in
Guest
2:56
Judge is going to win MVP, but was Witt more impactful for his team?  He accounted for more than half of KC's entire position-player fWAR!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
The Royals have so many holes. Their outfield is one disaster after another and they don't get much offense from their infield either. The Yankees might have contended with somebody else playing center field (might not have won the division though) but the Royals with anything less than what Witt gave them would have missed the playoffs.
Ben Clemens
2:56
Not exactly sure what "impactful for his team" means so I tend to stay away from the question. The Royals would be a lot worse without Bobby Witt, if that's what you're going for
Jeremy
2:57
Is Bobby Witt Jr. the Steve-Carlton-in-1972 of position players?
Ben Clemens
2:58
Allow me to introduce you to Mike Trout
J
2:58
Valdez throwing a lot of meatballs. How long do you stick with him?
Ben Clemens
2:59
I'm looking at the Astros bullpen and not feeling GREAT about it, you know? I'm not excited about trying to get a ton of innings out of this bullpen
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
the Royals do have a legitimate rotation, and that could keep them around.
Guest
2:59
Dodgers starters had a 5.80 ERA in the last month of the season, worst in the majors.  Will they overcome the pitching woes to reach the WS?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
I sure as hell can't see it unless Walker Buehler turns back the clock to 2021 and Landon Knack turns into Gerrit Cole
Ben Clemens
3:01
"the bottom of the lineup is huge for every team right now" is honestly a pretty reasonable playoff announcer take
I feel like it dodges the trope of "this team is SPECIAL b/c of their #7 hitter"
and leans into the fact that if your lower-tier guys hit well, you'll tend to do well
respect for that one
Skooby
3:02
Please no Skubal injury
Ben Clemens
3:03
Hope he's okay - also think he's okay.
Ben Clemens
3:03
If you have to get hit by a line drive, that's probably where you'd want it
Jessica
3:03
Javy Baez and his sub-replacement production got sent home and then the Tigers go on a massive run. It begs the question for whether he cuts get with over 70 mil remaining on his contract if he shows up in Spring and is still cratering in the Grapefruit league
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