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2025-26 Top 50 Free Agents Live Chat
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Tim Dierkes
8:46
Amid the chaos of getting our Top 50 Free Agents list out the door, I realized MLBTR's 20th anniversary passed this week!  I haven't quite had time to do a lot of reflection given how all-encompassing the list is.
8:48
Anyway, thank you for being here.  Please consider supporting MLBTR with a Trade Rumors Front Office subscription.  For $34.99 per year it removes ads and also includes my mailbag, an exclusive article each week from Steve and Anthony, access to our amazing MLB Contract Tracker tool, and more.
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Glass half empty
8:48
Terrible job with the predictions. What were you thinking? (Okay, that's off my chest. Now I can  go and read it.)
Trent
8:48
Thank you for an amazing job preparing this list.   Knowing now that Trent Grisham was extended a QO, would that have changed your prediction to him accepting the offer?
Tim Dierkes
8:49
We actually make a point to wait until QO decisions are in, fully incorporate those into the list, and then publish.  We mulled this one over and while it would not be a shock for Grisham to accept, our feeling is that this is a great shot at free agency for him even with it, and lots of teams would like a CF who can hit.
Steve Adams
8:50
Not a ton to add -- just echoing Tim. We thought he was likely to get a QO all along and baked that into the projection. I think he'll reject it and land 3-4 years. Relatively young free agent, huge platform year, thin market for OFs, etc.
Brian
8:50
If Grisham accepts the QO, do the Yankees still pursue Bellinger/Tucker?
Tim Dierkes
8:51
Yes, I think they feel the Grisham risk is worth taking whether it's him accepting or getting a draft pick.  But Belli/Tucker are bigger fish and I'd say fully in play regardless.
Steve Adams
8:51
They wouldn't have made the QO if they weren't comfortable with a scenario that sees Trent accept.
And that's not going to impact them chasing the bigger-fish OFs
Cashmans apprentice
8:51
Bo bichette at number two was way too high
Steve Adams
8:51
Anthony and I thought it was too low :)
Tim Dierkes
8:53
This is a good place to note that agonizing over the contracts is about 80% of this, with maybe 20% going toward the team picks (which we know we can't really bat over .300 on).  We all did contracts independently before beginning deliberations to see where we landed.  We put Bo at the same 8/208 I had.  I think Darragh was lower and I guess Steve and Anthony were higher.
I absolutely see scenarios where Bichette's market fails to materialize.  I think that'd start with the Blue Jays moving on.  No idea how aggressive they'll be on it.
Steve Adams
8:54
28 years old, consistently excellent hitter who went supernova for two months before a knee injury he was able to return from in the World Series. Picked up where he left off with the bat. 2024 was a fluke. Bichette wasn't just back to form in '25 -- he was at his best in years. Teams are going to want the bat and not care that he's a bad SS. I expect him to be the rare 2B who gets paid in free agency, joining Marcus Semien in that regard.
Michael
8:54
Which free agent left-handed starting pitcher will end up in Pittsburgh this year?
Tim Dierkes
I hadn't really considered them adding an SP much.  Can I interest you in Nestor Cortes though?
Steve Adams
8:55
Feels like there's always one! Haha. But I don't think they'll reprise the Rich Hill, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Martin Perez signing this year.
Money has to go to bats.
8:56
Nestor would be a decent cheap option for midseason depth though, sure, if they want to carry on the tradition
Maybe give Kyle Hart a minor league deal, haha
Tim Dierkes
8:56
I think the signature move will be a trade for a bat, but I threw the Pirates on Jorge Polanco anyway.  I assume he'll have better options, but maybe others will be reluctant to go to three years and the Pirates can break precedent and actually do a market value multiyear deal.
Steve Adams
8:56
I had the Bucs on Mullins before he was bumped from the list when the Rays declined Fairbanks' option last-minute
Guest
8:57
Do you see the Orioles sign a quality SP and not someone like Morton
Steve Adams
8:57
Still think Mullins should be on here, but I digress.
Tim Dierkes
8:57
I'm not positive it's a signing, but my guess is that the Orioles perhaps learned their lesson with how the Morton/Sugano "safe" additions went.  I think it's finally time they go bigger.
Steve Adams
8:58
I put them on Framber. I don't think he's going to command the 6+ years to which Elias seems averse, and Elias was the Astros' scouting director for years and has brought in a handful of former Houston guys during his tenure. That's a reach, of course, but we grasp at straws on these things when making picks sometimes, haha.
Tim Dierkes
8:58
Cease, Framber, King, and Giolito got picks from our team. There's really no SP they should not be in on.
Reds
8:59
Predicting Pete Alonso to come to the Queen City is quite bold, isn’t it?
Steve Adams
8:59
Broadly speaking, I do think they'll make a more impactful move. I had them on King for awhile, too. I don't think they'll go super long-term. (Orioles)
Tim Dierkes
9:00
It kind of is, but it's mostly the idea that the Mets have a good chance of moving on and the contract will not be prohibitive.  For the most part I've seen larger contract predictions elsewhere and if that happens then it's probably not the Reds.  It'll be interesting to see if the market responds differently to have.  Seemed like no one gave a decent four or five-year offer.  I know it was a better year but I don't think he's drastically different moving forward.
*have = him
Steve Adams
9:02
It's bold in the sense that the Reds don't spend like this in free agency, but not in the sense that Alonso just isn't going to cost THAT much by today's standards. Cincinnati has enough payroll capacity to make one big move in free agency and would free up more if they trade Singer (unless they do the Singer-Taylor Ward swap I have been manifesting for weeks, haha)

There's no clear option at 1B. The team is desperate for offense. We expect the Reds to try for Schwarber, a Cincinnati native they love, and when they fall short pivot to the next-best bet in terms of power bats.

I wound up putting Alonso on the Red Sox, but I was between them and the Reds primarily for him. We'll see if they actually pull the trigger, but it feels feasible based on payroll
And hey, they gave Votto twice what we're predicting for Pete -- and that was more than a decade ago
Jim
9:03
Biggest free agent the A's sign?
Tim Dierkes
9:04
The A's got more love on our list than I thought they would.  Eugenio Suarez, Bassitt, Seranthony, G Soto, Mahle, Willi Castro.  The last two of those were mine.  I think they make sense for guys who are finding their market to be disappointing, because we know FA generally don't want to go there.  I guess Mahle is a stretch, but it was tough to place all these SP without overloading certain teams.  I'm sure the A's want to add SP.
9:05
I guess I didn't answer the question.  I'll stick with Willi.  Can play a bunch of 2B, help out in the OF corners, poor finish to his year.
Steve Adams
9:05
Severino's experience and vocal distaste for pitching there has me wondering if they'll be able to reel in another starter of note, so I gave them some decent relievers (Dominguez, Soto). I could see them going after an infield bat though. Jorge Polanco, Gleyber Torres, Geno Suarez.

I don't think it's impossible that they sign a SP, but they'd probably need to comfortably overpay -- like be the team that goes the extra mile for a once-prominent SP whose stock is down. Zac Gallen, perhaps.
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