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2025-26 Top 50 Free Agents Live Chat
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Tim Dierkes
9:20
I put them on Geno for lack of a better option in concert with my other picks.  They want power, they want better defense, he only offers one of those.  Most players who offer both are not available.  But they basically have DH open, so they can accomplish the power without affecting the defense.  Yoshida was a mistake, but Breslow didn't make it.  I don't know that that would affect their interest in Schwarber.
Steve Adams
9:21
I think they have pretty easily stomached Yoshida's. I also think that was them sort of trying to get cute by overspending on a NPB bat they hoped could produce at Alonso-y levels (not in terms of pure power but just overall offensive value) and it burned them significantly.

Again, we're basically giving Alonso like $24-27M per season over a four- or five-year deal. It's just not that much by their standards. They can play him at 1B for a year or two, then move him to DH and let him absolutely destroy the Monster (or maybe not, since he'd be clearing the thing so often)
Tim Dierkes
9:21
Geno is Eugenio Suarez, for future reference.  We are thankful for shorthand options as we do most of our deliberating in a Discord chat
Steve Adams
9:21
Good Vibes Only
Meow
9:21
Congrats on 20 years, guys! Feels like the site has grown so big since I was browsing it to kill time in college over 15 (💀) years ago.
Tim Dierkes
9:21
Thanks!  We have come a long way from the days where I did all of the writing and in a much less professional way
Ray
9:22
Looks like the Cubs won't be shopping at the top, am I wrong?
Steve Adams
9:22
I was browsing it to kill time (and figure out where Johan Santana was going to be traded) in college ... 18 years ago! Did not think I'd be working here full-time for what's now coming up on a decade and a half (wtf)
Tim Dierkes
9:23
I can't tell yet.  Logically payroll should be up this year, at least closer to the CBT.  The Kittredge trade was weirdly cheap for a bullpen that basically just has Palencia, but maybe they just don't like him at that money for next year.  I'm guessing the Cubs would prefer to trade for a good SP than sign one.  They've rarely done the latter, but Hoyer was there for Lester and Darvish.  Lester was a Cubs legend and Darvish was solid for most of the six years even though Hoyer dealt him halfway through.
Steve Adams
9:24
The Cubs never want to shop at the top. I don't really understand why. They're the Cubs. They print money.

I could see them adding one of the bigger starters but not quite the top of the market. Did I put them on Ranger Suarez? I think I did. Ha. Something in that just-over-100 price range.

I also put them on Kazuma Okamoto, simply because I don't think Matt Shaw did anything in 2025 to seize the 3B job, and if they're not going to shell out for an absolute top-of-market free agent, Shaw, Caissie, etc. are going to be popular asks on the trade market.

I think the Cubs will be in on Joe Ryan, MacKenzie Gore -- basically all the big trade names this winter.
Go Birds!
9:25
Does kyle tucker end up in red pinstripes in south philly this coming season?
Steve Adams
9:25
I can see it. Phils were on my short list of plausible Tucker spots, along with the Giants, Jays, Yankees and Dodgers.
Tim Dierkes
9:25
Darragh predicted that.  I think it's reasonable enough, particularly if Schwarber leaves.
Jack
9:26
Could the D-Backs be a sneaky fit for Alex Bregman? He is a New Mexico guy. I know Lawlar is likely their intended 3B next year but maybe if they land Bregman they could seek to use him as a headliner for a big starter acquisition?
Tim Dierkes
9:26
I hadn't though much about that fit.  They are supposed to reduce payroll and are prioritizing pitching.  That said, Ken Kendrick's big moves sometimes seem to come out of nowhere.
Steve Adams
9:27
Lawlar looks so, so bad at 3B. They're trying him in CF. I don't think they're convinced at all that he's the long-term 3B. They traded Suarez and still didn't hand 3B over to him full time.

Snakes are trying to scale back payroll and contend simultaneously, which is a tall ask -- particularly since they have basically no rotation or bullpen right now. I expect pitching to be the primary focus.

Even if they did trade Lawlar for a pitcher -- which feels perfectly plausible -- I think they'd still dedicate their free agent resources to pitching
Free agent buzz
9:28
What do you think the Jays pivot is if they don't land bichette? Do they look at the OF and move Barger to 3B/Clement 2B? Do you see them focusing on bichette or the pitching market first?
Tim Dierkes
9:29
The Jays are one of those teams that is capable of adding just about anyone.  If Bichette leaves, I could see Bregman or even Tucker.  And I could see them signing any SP or RP, up to and including Cease or E Diaz.  Would they sign two top 10 FA?  Not the type of thing we like to predict on our list, but it happens.
Steve Adams
9:30
They can do anything, in part because Shane Bieber just decided to leave anywhere from $60-100MM on the table and gift them a return at the same price we saw the shells of Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton command last winter.

(I think that may be the most surprising option decision I've ever seen)

Jays could realistically pay Tucker, Bregman, Cease, Diaz ... and frankly, I expect them to go hard after multiple big names. They've been in on Ohtani, Soto, Sasaki (different type of big fish) and more.

Getting some of those top names to sign is a lot easier now that they were just a few pitches away from a WS title.
Tim Dierkes
9:31
I will have to find it but one time I interviewed JP Ricciardi and he talked about how the typical free agent does not want to go to Toronto, so they had to overpay to get A.J. Burnett there.  Based on the Bieber decision and everything coming out about the 2025 clubhouse, what Ricciardi said seems very much not the case.
could be in here.  Don't have time to read https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/02/opt-out-clauses-mlb.html
Blue Jays fan
9:31
Were you guys shocked that Shane Bieber didn’t opt out? If he wanted to stay in Toronto, why wouldn’t he opt out and resign with the jays for more?
Steve Adams
9:31
That was also probably 15 years ago? Fair to say some things have probably changed, haha
9:32
Literal most shocking option decision I can recall.
Tim Dierkes
9:32
Yeah, as Steve said, we were indeed shocked.  There were a lot of "wtf?" texts going around.  We had 5/130 on Bieber.
Steve Adams
9:32
I happened to be texting with a couple other agents (different agencies) about other topics at the time Bieber opted in, and they were dumbfounded
9:33
"Has to be hurt" and "I don't understand this at all... I don't care how much you love Toronto" were their immediate replies, ha.
Tim Dierkes
9:33
I have seen some stuff on Twitter with some Jays fans saying, "The national media just not get us!  They shouldn't be surprised Bieber did this."  But after doing this for 20 years, we've certainly seen players take discounts to stay put, but this is just on a scale that we cannot recall.
Steve Adams
9:33
I hope he's not hurt.
TxDude
9:33
With the reports being that the Rangers are kind of strapped for money, what moves do you see them making? They need a complete offensive overhaul
Steve Adams
9:34
If Bieber wanted a "discount" to stay in Toronto, he could've signed for like ... 3/75?
This is so far beyond a discount
Tim Dierkes
9:34
A couple of us did Arraez with Texas, I put Caratini there.  My assumption is that CY builds the bullpen back up cheaply as he's had some success with that.
9:35
It's weird because even cutting payroll, they've got room to spend.  But the "we're not spending" vibes seem pretty strong so I guess none of us put them on a major FA.
Steve Adams
9:37
It's not reports ... president of baseball operations Chris Young plainly said they lacked payroll certainty this offseason.

I think the Rangers are going to move on from Adolis Garcia and Jonah Heim. I expect them to be very open to trading Josh Jung and Jake Burger.

That said, their payroll is projected for $197MM at RosterResource right now. That's already down from last year's $225MM, and that still includes Garcia and Heim for a combined (projected) $18MM. I think they're both as good as gone.

So there's room for them to make some additions and still keep payroll down a bit.

Arraez does fit there and would change the offensive identity. I think they add a new catcher (Ryan Jeffers? Victor Caratini? Even JT Realmuto is possible) and move away from a lot of this low-OBP, big-power archetype they've sort of begun cultivating (whether by design or happenstance)
John
9:37
Will the Royals make a bigger splash in the trade market over free agency?
Tim Dierkes
9:38
It does seem that they would like to trade an SP for a corner OF bat.  But bringing Yaz back or doing something on that scale in FA makes sense too.
Steve Adams
9:39
Their system just isn't that great, and I'm not as big on moving a big league SP as Tim and (I think) Darragh have been when suggesting someone like Kris Bubic.

I had the Royals on Gleyber Torres before he received the QO. Since I think he'll accept, I moved Jorge Polanco from SF to KC.

I find the Royals totally viable for a reunion with Yaz or a run at Cedric Mullins (who, again, should be on the list, Tim grinning)
Grisham, too, though not sure they'll spend that aggressively.
Tim Dierkes
9:40
Cedric Mullins was a point of debate, believe it or not.  Most of us couldn't get him past one year and $10 mil.  I assume Steve was furious when the Rays declined Fairbanks' option and Mullins was bumped
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