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2025-26 Top 50 Free Agents Live Chat
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Steve Adams
10:03
Yeah, Tim wrote that player up and I agreed with the sentiment ... a lot of the Boston media is treating Bregman as something the Sox have to get done.

I don't think they will. This hasn't been in Breslow's wheelhouse to date, and I think other clubs are going to more heavily prioritize him. Boston has other in-house infield options that are highly regarded, even after disappointing rookie showings. Mayer, Campbell. They could sign a shorter-term option. They also badly need starting pitching.

Granted, I picked them to sign Alonso, so I'm very much talking out of both sides of my mouth here, but I think the Alonso contract will come in much lighter and feel like the Sox (or whoever) gave him a bit of a soft landing, whereas I expect Bregman to be more genuinely in demand and command top-of-market dollars.
cpins
10:04
I know the projected landing spots are as much fun as meaningful but Woodruff to the Mets got me thinking about a larger issue.  If they trade for a frontline starter wouldn't they want to avoid the 2 pick/$1m IFA penalty since the trade would deplete the farm?  2nd thought:  Is the comp penalty price for a Woodruff greater than the likely prospect cost for a trade for say Alcantara?
Tim Dierkes
10:05
My assumption is that the Mets will only bring in one front-rotation type.  If Woodruff qualifies as that for Stearns, then giving up the second and fifth round picks and the international pool money is part of the calculus.  3/66 is a fairly light contract if Woody can pitch like he did in the regular season this year and most importantly, by healthy for the most part come October (which of course he was not in 2023 and '25).
10:06
The Alcantara price I think would require players with relative certainty and proximity to the Majors.  It just seems like a different kind of way of paying than forfeiting picks, most of which bust
You don't want to continually wipe out all your draft picks, it's a numbers game, but a lot of fifth rounders don't become anything
10:07
I assume the three of us picking the Mets on Woodruff couldn't resist the Stearns connection and his tendency thus far to not sign SP to long-term deals.  We sometimes grasp at straws a little bit to decide why this team should get this SP and this other one that one
Steve Adams
10:07
Not convinced the Marlins trade Sandy this winter. At all. Though it's possible enough that he ranked prominently on the Trade Candidate list. He will 100% be talked about and sought after all offseason.

It gets a little murky, answering questions like this. You're making short-term talent acquisition concessions by signing Woodruff. You're making a different kind of concession to add Alcantara (or another veteran SP on the trade market), but there's the implied future value of making him a QO years down the line as well, if all goes according to plan.

More to the specific Mets question ... their farm is great. They can stomach the loss of two picks and some international money. And it's feasible they can get some extra picks in the future, pending possible QOs for Clay Holmes, David Peterson etc.
Tim Dierkes
10:08
My last thought on Woodruff is that he's gonna need a clean physical. The late lat strain was likened to a hamstring strain.  I ain't a doctor, so we will see
BurnerK
10:08
Did everyone think Dombrowskis Flex statements on Schwarber was enough to scare everyone away from bidding or what?
Tim Dierkes
10:09
I don't believe free agency typically works that way, and the true flex would've been to just sign Schwarber to an extension.  That did not happen so clearly Kyle has some interest in seeing what's out there based on whatever overtures the Phillies have made thus far
Steve Adams
10:09
One more Woodruff point from me: I'd be surprised if he accepts. I think the very fact that the Brewers made the QO suggests they believe the injury is not major. They're already paying him a $10MM buyout, so this is Milwaukee of all teams risking a $32MM payout to a pitcher. Yikes.
Dombrowski is as aggressive a GM as there is when he sets his sights on someone. I think the Phils just love Schwarber and feel he's the guy they cannot let get away
Mariners
10:10
Do you see a world where Alonso signs in Miami?
Tim Dierkes
10:10
Mostly no.  If his market is so bad that he's doing another two-year deal, and the Mets have already moved on, then I guess I can almost slightly see that world if I squint
Steve Adams
10:11
Personally, no. I think it's too big a financial risk and I also don't think this is a skill set that president of bb ops Peter Bendix values highly
Oh true, in that scenario, sure.
But then you'd have a bunch of unexpected bidders in the fray since there's no QO this time around
Ethan
10:11
Do think the MLBPA will step in like last year with the Athletics and threaten a grievance if a team doesn’t increase spending? The Marlins come to mind for me.
Tim Dierkes
10:12
Yes, but those grievances are weird.  They never seem to result in real penalty and I think dismissing them just becomes another CBA bargaining chip.  If we're going to say teams need to spend 150% of their revenue sharing, then the players need to fight for strong penalties when they don't.  Also I'd really love for revenue sharing info to not be under lock and key as it is!
10:13
I can see why MLB has locked that down though.  If we saw all the revenue sharing figures in a concrete way each year, there would be more pressure on recipients to spend it on players
Steve Adams
10:13
I think the A's were a special case. They'd lost revenue-sharing in the past and only had their rev sharing rights reinstated under the past CBA. Then they went right back to basement-level CBT numbers.

If you look at the Marlins, they ran an $86MM CBT number this year, which the MLBPA probably hates -- but they're also already signaling plans to spend some. Also, from 2022-24, they were between $105MM and $139MM in CBT tallies every year.

The A's were like 3-4 straight years at $85MM or less. That's the difference, I would assume.
Refresh, Please
10:13
Of the four of you---which had the most correct last year and what was that number?
Tim Dierkes
Steve led the team with a robust .188 average on 48 picks
Steve Adams
10:14
No one's taking my crown this year baby
Gunning for a beefy .200 batting average
Tim Dierkes
10:14
Out of I think 5,000 people, one guy hit over .229
Steve Adams
10:14
The champ is here.
Now please never look at the prior offseasons
Just trust that I am always in the lead and certainly that I've never been at the bottom of the pile.
Mike
10:14
Do you see the Yankees possibly signing Bichette?
Tim Dierkes
10:15
I don't think they need to spend big money on a non-SS.  Long shot for me
Steve Adams
10:15
Don't love the fit but I understand it. Volpe is a question mark, only one more year of Jazz at 2B, lots of talk about needing a new offensive approach.

I still don't see it.
Side note on that
10:16
The Yankees are one of like 7 teams where all the talk is about making more contact, getting on base more, moving away from such a boom-or-bust approach, etc.

That bodes well for Bichette. And for Tucker!
ERS
10:16
What was your debate like that re: Murakami? I get the big power, but the Ks are worrying enough that I'd be very wary of giving him anything over, like, 4 years. There is a legitimate chance he is not a viable major league hitter if he is striking out upwards of 33%.
Tim Dierkes
10:17
I'll mostly cede to Steve's memory on this.  I came in at 5/100, we talked ourselves up to 208, and then we came back down a bit to 180.  For the most part it was about 80 grade power and youth you can rarely find on the market, but the risk is real.
We have regularly come in low on star Japanese free agents, so this was probably an attempted correction on that as well
Steve Adams
10:18
Agree wholeheartedly. I threw out Miguel Sano as a possible worst-case scenario here.

That said, we see teams make questionable nine-figure commitments to more established guys all the time. Chris Davis, Javy Baez, Nick Castellanos, Patrick Corbin -- the list goes on.

Murakami is so young with such rare power than I think a team will dream on him. I also make an effort to chat with MLB scouts who focus on NPB/KBO every offseason when it comes to these guys, and I didn't hear anything so negative or worrisome on Murakami to make me think he'd come in with a short-term deal or something under 100.
Tim Dierkes
10:19
Some high K guys become absolute monsters.  Some do not.  NPB projections are the hardest
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