JotCast | 2025 Trade Value Series Chat

2025 Trade Value Series Chat

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Ben Clemens

10:17

As I mentioned, I was not the low man on him out of everyone I talked to, I think that a lot of people would group all the hit tool risk players together in the 20s maybe. but just my attempt at keeping my own view the focus while also hearing what some smart people I trust had to say

Guest

10:18

If defense were as consistent, measurable, and followed the same aging curve as hitting, would you value it equally? Or do you see it as a less valuable part of the game even outside of those factors

Ben Clemens

10:19

I still wouldn't. Well, I'm willing to let team behavior guide me, so if they start doing it a little differently I'd re-evaluate

but the truth is, defense just doesn't cost as much. it just doesn't. look at arb. look at free agent deals

it's easier to acquire a 3 win guy who is an 85 wRC+ with a slick glove than one who's 120 wRC+

10:21

so that guides my view. and I think it makes sense. it's not that defense is less valuable on the field. it's just that the cost of acquisition is lower

and it's also not super accretive. You don't get to keep adding +10 defenders

Logan

10:21

Whoa, Julio was #1 in the raw model? Surprising -- what was driving that vs. Witt, Carroll, Elly?

Ben Clemens

10:22

combination of ZiPS really loving his forecasts (only Witt is ahead of him) and the shape of his contract option being a lot better than Witt's

Witt, if he goes nova, he leaves after 2030. Julio, if he does, you get it

Don't worry, Witt was third, neck and neck with PA

PCA* sorry the C is sticking

10:23

anyway, that's like, only very initial model, and I do a ton of tweaking from there. it's mostly there to get the list in an initial order to even start making comparisons

Oaktown Blues

10:23

What makes Yordan Alvarez significantly more valuable than Brent Rooker? Rooker was basically just as good last year, has been better this year, and is signed for longer and cheaper. Yordan has a slightly higher peak, but shouldn't the recent performance and contract situation outweigh that?

Ben Clemens

10:23

Ooh, I was looking to have a Yordan discussion actually, so great excuse

Okay so, the Yordan placement in the list was surely arbitrary

10:24

as I mentinoed in the writeup, the Astros don't value him this low and no one else values him this high, there's no deal to be done

but I noticed that a lot of the comments around Yordan focused on 'well you could just get a different offensive player who's also a good hitter, like Yordan'

I wrote about this a little today in the Judge section, but let's take Rooker, sure

10:25

Rooker's best season was last year. 164 wRC+. Huge, outlier season. 30 points of wRC+ ahead of his next-highest season, which is 2025, ahead of his established career level on the A's, etc. I totally buy what the projection systems are selling that ROoker is a 130 wRC+ hitter going ahead, great hitter, that's a good projection

Yordan's career AVERAGE wRC+ is 162

his average season has been the Rooker fever dream season

Someone else wanted to compare Yordan to Matt Olson. Nice hitter, same deal. Olson's career high wRC+ is a big outlier to the positive side and lower than Yordan's career average

10:26

I'm not saying that you have to agree with the Yordan valuation. It's very speculative, like I mentioned. If I hadn't ranked Acuna a few times when he was out with a torn ACL, I probably wouldn't have ranked Yordan this year

10:27

But.... no, the hitter on your team who you like is not projected to hit as well as Yordan Alvarez. And he shouldn't be. Yordan is a really, really, really good hitter

10:27

If Wood and Elly had the same team control situation, would their relative rankings stay the same, or would Elly pull ahead? (Recognize I'm tempting you with two of your faves)

Ben Clemens

10:28

Oof yeah. It's a tough one

I'd have Wood ahead, and I'll tell you why. I'm mostly looking for absolute off-the-top-of-the-scales high end outcomes with these guys

I actually had Elly a little lower to start this list. in the group with the CF's around 10th. but I think I fell victim to the 'oh his stats look similar to last year's' thing I wrote about in his blurb

10:29

He's still improving, the chance for a monster career is obviously there

10:30

but you have to think it's less likely, right? how could it not be? another year has passed without him being Shortstop Judge

10:31

meanwhile, Wood might be Lefty Judge

like, he's probably not

but at these crazy heights of 'which top 10 player do you want' I'm picking the one with the trajectory that could really be wild

Dusty Rhodes

10:31

What's the one player that was most divisive amongst your team/league sources?

Ben Clemens

10:31

Misiorowski, I think

10:32

That's kind of cheating, though. How in the world are the people I talk to, most of whom have real jobs that aren't "evaluate players who you can't ever acquire on other teams"

have an opinion on this guy whose total body of work is changing massively as I have these conversations with them?

10:33

Leaving him aside, hm: Skubal is up there, Adley, Eury Perez

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