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AL Division Series Games 1 Chat
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Ben Clemens
4:43
Bringing in the heavy hitters for the East Coast Bias game.
RTR
4:44
Is there any concern for Air Yordan? He has looked completely out of whack and limped into the postseason
AvatarDan Szymborski
4:44
Not I. Everyone has down stretches and you don't tend to look good in 'em
Jason
4:45
Not much point in cherry-picking small samples and trying to draw conclusions.  Even Babe Ruth went 0-fer his career in at bats where he didn't get a hit.
Ben Clemens
4:45
Strangely, Babe Ruth batted .225/.350/.450 in at-bats where he didn't get a hit.
Baseball was weird back then.
RTR
4:46
But in a high pressure situation such as the postseason could he have a shorter leash? Especially because he is a DH and provides nothing defensively
AvatarDan Szymborski
4:47
DrakeDrake
Ben Clemens
4:47
I don't buy this argument. Looking bad in a few PA's doesn't change the fact that he's a much better hitter than anyone else they'd play at DH, and every DH will get the same penalty.
Jason
4:47
The real question to ask regarding Yordan, and slumps in general, is "is there a statistically significant auto-correlation in consecutive at bats."  If you can demonstrate that there is, then maybe you can extend that into claiming that a specific player's slump is real.
Dystopian Future
4:47
Not only does Drake catch my interest on the mound, he also has my interest with the bat; He has a 472 wRC+ on the mound this season, highest in baseball (min 1 AB).
Ben Clemens
4:47
Noooooooo Johnny Davis!!!!
Dystopian Future
4:47
No, 473! I'm sorry, 473 wRC+.
AvatarDan Szymborski
4:48
Did I just see a fan walking with a what looked like a Tommy Bahama Astros shirt?
Ben Clemens
4:48
Jason, that's exactly the right question to ask. I think that the real trickiness of streaks and the reason it sticks in people's heads is that sometimes there are reasons for auto-correlation: if your toe hurts in AB10, it will probably still hurt in AB11.
4:49
But lots of the time there isn't. And it's hard to distinguish which is which, and it's usually just noise.
AvatarDan Szymborski
4:49
Yeah, even if there's an ability, it's something you'll mostly see in hindsight and as Ben says, the noise is just massive.
Ben Clemens
4:50
The human brain does love a narrative though.
AvatarDan Szymborski
4:50
Like what if clutch ability exists but it's 97% your normal baseball skill, 3% Clutchiness? It may be real, but you won't be able to really use that information.
Pattern finding!
Ben Clemens
4:50
True story: my dad sneaks into the comments of my articles under various names to ask me to write about clutchness.
AvatarDan Szymborski
Ben Clemens
4:51
Eh, if he weren't slumping, that would be extra bases.
AvatarDan Szymborski
4:51
At least your dad understands what you do.
Sabo
4:51
does he think he's being sneaky
AvatarDan Szymborski
4:51
My mom's still not sure what my source of income has been for 20 years. "Why would anyone listen to you? You played baseball in high school."
Lunar verLander
4:51
You should write about the correlation between father/son clutchness.
Dystopian Future
4:51
Yordan Alvarez in play, run(s).
Ben Clemens
4:51
I'm not sure ,but I've never told him that I know it's him and he's never mentioned that he does it.
Jason
4:52
Nooooooooooo!  There goes the homer-or-error streak!  I'm going to have to completely retune all of my models.  Is it too late to cancel the bet I made in Vegas?
Nick
4:52
If the choice for the Astros is extending Springer or re-signing Cole, which should they choose?
AvatarDan Szymborski
4:52
Cole
Geust
4:52
Did you play baseball in high school?
AvatarDan Szymborski
4:52
poorly
Good athletes all played lacrosse!
4:53
Here's how you made baseball/football in my high school: show up
it was all lacrosse lacrosse lacrosse
Dystopian Future
4:53
Yuli Gurriel in play, run(s).
Who will the Astros let walk when the time comes?
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