JotCast | AL Wild Card Chat

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Dan Szymborski

10:10

I love Luzardo's locations against Lowe.

Ben Clemens

10:10

That strike three was painted

Matt

10:11

...can he call it a "maniacal" sequence after the lack of success from a pitcher *named* Manaea?

Nick

10:11

Wait, shouldn't Sean Manaea be authoring the "maniacal" sequences?

Ben Clemens

10:11

Some chance he's had that one in the tank all night

Cam

10:11

I did not realize luzardo throws 99 until this moment

Dan Szymborski

10:11

The 0-2 pitch was close too

Yeah, I think that he'd be Luzardicrous.

LFC Mike

10:12

Lowe painted a pitch??? Well played with the home improvement store pun

Dan Szymborski

10:12

Rick Homedepot warming up for the Rays

Ralph Rowdie

10:12

Manaea’s sequencing was clearly diabolical, not maniacal.

10:13

Dan what does zips think the final score will be? The Gambler in me knows it won’t be 3.86 to 4.45

Dan Szymborski

10:13

I don't have a setup for in-game!

Ben Clemens

10:13

In-game seems like a lot more trouble than it's worth.

Dan Szymborski

10:13

That was a wonderful inning for Luzardo

now, if in-game betting becomes more a thing...

Matt

10:13

So...this game is going to end on a walk off in the park grand slam that rolls past Garcia in RF, isn't it?

Dan Szymborski

10:14

This game is going to end because it'll be Christmas Day.

LFC Mike

10:14

I started this chat with a maniacal pun....

Jason

10:14

Painting at 99 mph ought to be illegal. Or, better yet, make the size of the strike zone inversely correlated with velocity. Hader's 105 FB? Better be down the middle. A 55 mph Euphus? It's a strike if it makes it more than halfway before bouncing.

Ben Clemens

10:14

The 538 one is always doing goofy stuff when it comes to basketball, I think there are interpolation issues sometimes.

Lunar verLander

10:14

It's like Patrick Henry said: "Give me pitch-by-pitch betting, or give me death!"

Dan Szymborski

10:15

I'm always looking for ZiPS-based things to bet on.

Ben Clemens

10:15

Ah, John Paul Jones's classic rejoinder, "I have not yet begun to double down on the A's despite Morton dealing."

DodgersFan

10:15

Dodgers won 106 games in the regular season yet it's barely over 50% odds that they win the series. And it actually makes sense. Nothing quite like postseason baseball

Dan Szymborski

10:15

It's because of the Nats config.

Wire Fan

10:15

What is a typical 1 sigma for ZIPS in say , wRC+ or wOBA? Are there specific batting profiles where ZIPS is tighter/looser?

Dan Szymborski

10:16

it's a little tricky because it varies by PA and so on. And remember, ZiPS isn't fit to a distribution, it's non-parametric

The goal of every projection system is to be a little less crappy at predicting the future than Marcel.

Ben Clemens

10:16

Non-parametric is just another word for witchcraft.

Lunar verLander

10:16

in THEORY, one could construct a method for pitch-by-pitch WPA...right?

Ben Clemens

10:17

Sure, but, the sum would work out to the same as PA-by-PA WPA

unless you were changing pitchers or batters within the at-bat

Dan Szymborski

10:17

non-parametric is one of those terms that's great for tricking people into thinking I'm smart. Heteroskedasticity too.

Jackson

10:17

What does ZiPS say the chances of me crying by the 8th inning are

Dan Szymborski

10:17

Don't have the data to project tears.

Ben Clemens

10:17

My dad, a statistics professor, taught me to use heteroskedasticity whenever possible

Matt

10:17

Box-Cox allows you to insert a little childish giggling as well.

Ben Clemens

10:18

the word, to be clear

10:18

Ben when are we going to get you a weekly chat?

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