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Apr19 2021 Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:03
Monday noon baseball on the second screen (sorry Giolito-ites); questions in the queue; still some hot coffee in the thermos. Remember that brief context to your questions helps immeasurably ... let's go!
Beano
12:11
  1. what’s the update on Sixto Sanchez? 2. Thoughts on Weathers? Jeff Hoffman? And is the Cin closer Garrett or Sims!
Brent Hershey
12:11
Latest we heard on Sixto is throwing on flat ground ... he's aways away, sounds like. Which is prob OK in the bigger picture for Marlins and Sixto's health -- though stinks for 2021 fantasy value. Weathers is going to get used (depth piece) given lack of other options in SD. Their rotation rocks when healthy, but all staffs will need depth. Cautiously optimistic on Hoffman; still a matchup play for now but love that he's in CIN with that team. Garrett, though fluid
Dennis
12:16
12 team H2H 5X5 categories. Need a SP replacement for Lance Lynn while he is on the IL. Could use a couple of suggestions. Thanks.
Brent Hershey
12:16
Thanks for the question, Dennis ... but for all, this is an example of where context matters. I can give a much more informed answer if you leave two or three replacement options you're considering, rather than flying blind and not knowing your own league's player pool. That said ... maybe Mize, Hoffman, JT Brubaker, Montgomery?
Uncle Rico
12:19
Brent, I’m glad that we’re both here to enjoy another fantastic Monday!

It seems like the Kelley Jansen train is finally off the track in LA. For us folks in dynasty leagues, how hard should we be targeting Brusdar Graterol? How soon could such an acquisition pay off?

Thanks for all that you do!
Brent Hershey
12:19
Yeah, that's probably the best long-term play ... but what would concern me a bit is that LA is so good at player development, that it's more difficult for us to peg a future closer in that org. They have a history of pegging more unknown (their own system, as well as those outside) and making them relevant. Gonzalez, Knebel, McGee last year, etc. So while Graterol makes sense, it could be a while, and his injury history is shaky. Not sure I'd go full-in on Graterol just yet, but if you have bench room, sure.
Jeff’s Roommate
12:21
Alright, another one of my favorite chats :-)

Brent, what do we make of Nick Madrigal? Is he essentially Luis Arraez, with even less power? Or will the speed surface? Finding it difficult to assess his value in keeper league formats.

Thanks!
Brent Hershey
12:21
Though I just watched him slash a triple into RF corner in Fenway, I'm generally not a big Madrigal fan, esp in keeper formats. Long-term I don't see enough pop in his bat to big a big fantasy difference-maker, and don't think there's enough speed there to compensate. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but Arraez could be a decent comp, actually. Madigal's contact game is elite; but in a keeper league not sure that carries much given other inadequacies.
HarrytheK
12:24
What's the latest on Albies, Biggio and Grisham? All with ominous late week injuries. Safe starts this week or find fill-ins?
Brent Hershey
12:24
No inside info here, but Biggio's injury seems minor at this point. I'd probably have each of them starting this week, but obv keep monitoring the news up until the deadline for any additional clues. Not sure in that case if the light Monday sched helps or hurts.
Katherine
12:26
Good morning, world! Who in the heck is this Zach McKinstry fellas? Has he gotten your attention, Brent?
Brent Hershey
12:26
The latest LA player development story. He has gotten my attention, and the Dodger history with these types of guys makes be believe it easier. Not sure he's got enough to recco for 12-teamers, but think he's in the short-term mix in 15s.
Paulie Awesome
12:28
Yo, Brent! Happy Patriots Day!

I'm curious -- which prospects are you most excited to see called up this season?

Love the chats!
Brent Hershey
12:28
Back at 'cha re Patriots Day! JB Bukaukas was one, esp given the ARI bullpen. We'll see how that works out. Otherwise, Wander Franco, Jarred Kelenic and pitchers MacKenzie Gore (SD), Logan Gilbert (SEA), Matt Manning (DET) head the list.
Wander
12:32
Thoughts on Eugenio Suarez? Seemed like a relatively solid yet undervalued offensive piece coming into the year but has been sputtering so far.
Brent Hershey
12:32
Too early to pull the plug of course, but that continued drop in contact rate (K'ing more) is something to watch for sure. Has gotten considerably worse over past two seasons.
Frank
12:36
How much longer do I stick with CJ Cron when other options (Moran, for instance) are available?
Brent Hershey
12:36
Cron's case is concerning, also, but might still give it some time if you can afford it. He's hitting half of his balls in play into the ground, something that is 1) uncharacteristic of his history and 2) absolutely the opposite of what you want from a Coors power hitter. Moran having a better season so far, and underrated, but neither in a good park nor in a good lineup. But would not be burying you like Cron is now, either. Close call.
Rich
12:39
Hi Brent. Thanks for the chat. Michael A Taylor’s BHQ xBA is .264, but his Statcast xBA is .334. Do you know why there’s such a disparity?  According to Statcast, Taylor has been very unlucky, but according to BHQ, his batting average is about what it should be.
Brent Hershey
12:39
Two things: Statcast xBA and our version aim to do the same thing... Statcast uses their history of batted ball data to assign a hit probability to each ball in play, our version tries to get to the same thing (what "should have been" by using contact rate, GB/LD/FB profile (with likelihood of a hit on each) plus a player's own power and speed.
The gap is likely a sample size quirk, as the difference between .264 and .334 in Taylor's 46-AB sample is all of THREE hits. This is an example of why we are hesitant to get too far into the analysis weeds here this early in the season at HQ... we don't want to be tagging anyone as regression candidates (good or bad) based on 3-hit discrepancies. So yes, look at the data, just take it with large grains of salts for a little while longer
Quagmire
12:40
Jeff McNeil's h% appears to be the issue for his slow start. Is this someone worth holding/buying before it starts to normalize? 91% contact rate to date looks real nice.
Brent Hershey
12:40
Yes, McNeil is a good hold and candidate for a rebound soon.
Charlie ChiSox
12:41
Could Kyle Zimmer end up closing for the Royals?
Brent Hershey
12:41
Could happen, and he's pitched well so far. But I'd think it won't be until after they have circled through both Barlow and Staumont (assuming Holland falters at some point). IOW, not until much later in the season.
Patrick
12:43
Thoughts on Austin Meadows in an 5x5 OBP keeper league? Worth trading a pitching combo like Lopez/Alcantara if you need offense?
Brent Hershey
12:43
Have been high on Meadows for a while; have him rostered several places myself this year. But, don't think I'd move that pitching combo for him. Too much upside there for me, even for young starters, unless you're super deep in starters.
NB
12:46
Hey Brent - It's still very early, but how Jazzed should I be about Mr. Chisholm?  His barrel rate and hard hit % are strong, and unlike the minors, he's taking walks.  Small sample size, or signs that he's growing as a player?  Thanks!
Brent Hershey
12:46
I think there are positive signs, yes -- and I say that as one who has been very skeptical about how his strikeouts could limit him here at the start. On the other hand, how different is this than Luis Robert's first month in 2020? Will def be watching Jazz closely here as season goes on to see how he takes to pitchers adjusting to him.
Randy
12:47
Would you drop Mize for Michael Fulmer?
Brent Hershey
12:47
Not right now, no. There are some spots in which I'll take a shot that Fulmer is an upgrade, but would rather have Mize in both the short and long-term.
Mike
12:49
Hi Brent, Just bad luck with Jeff McNeil? CT and HctX look OK but is batting order position affecting him? Should I be looking to swap him out for Jazz Chisholm in a 12 team HTH points league?
Brent Hershey
12:49
I'd stick w/ McNeil for now. I HOPE batting order position is not affecting him ... but he's unlikely to move up for sure, as long as he's on this schnide. But think it could happen later on as his bat heats up
Mugghead
12:51
Hi Brent, what are your thoughts on A.J. Pollock's slow start? I try not to panic this early in the season, but the K's seems concerning. Would it be worth cutting him in favor of someone like Bryan Reynolds or even Brandon Belt? Thanks, as always.
Brent Hershey
12:51
The low quality (and quality) of contact is concerning a bit, yes. Might give it another week or two, but Reynolds could also be an option
Walter Black
12:53
Last minute submission! I'd love to know your thoughts on Alex Kirilloff. How could can this kid be? I'm hoping to acquire him via trade in my league soon.

Love ya, Brent.
Brent Hershey
12:53
Think his BA+power combo will make him a valuable fantasy player; and seems like (letting Rosario walk) MIN thinks that, too. Always dicey on whether he hits the ground running, but def a keeper-league gem, esp in that lineup.
Guest
12:55
hi Brent,Any insights into Washington starters outside of Scherzer and Corbin? Who do you like from Heredia, heath, Cooper, P Smith  and  Daza for NL only  traditional 5x5 league?
Brent Hershey
12:55
Mildly intersted in Joe Ross, but overall I'm inclined to stay away from Nats pitching. Would lean Cooper and P Smith in that NL OF question. They have best skills and staying power for me.
Guest
12:57
Hi! In 12-team mixed Roto H2H — For ROS would you drop Marco Gonzalez or Yusei Kikuchi for any of Alex Cobb, Logan Webb, Jacob Junis or Logan Webb, as a #6 or 7 behind Pineda on my staff. Any waiver type you would prefer?
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