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April 11 BHQ Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:01
Happy Monday, all – what a wild weekend, especially for some “established” starters. Remember to breathe; we’re not even 1/26th of the way through the season! Got some good questions ready to go, here --- again, please remember to give some context (and in best case, choices) for me to give you the most informed opinion. League size, player pool, any non-traditional scoring categories, helps a ton. Let’s go!
Guest
12:04
Hi Brent, NL only 5x5 traditional.  Can you give feedback on which relievers you believe in…..Bard,strider, anderson (la), finnegan, Dominguez .      Thanks
Brent Hershey
12:04
Going to assume you're looking for Saves, Bard is the best of the bunch right now. Bud Black loves to pick one guy, and even though it's Coors and Bard's recent track record is shaky, he's the pick for the present. Then in NL-only, I'd think Domínguez/Strider are best (good teams; setup guys, Ks), though interested in LA's Anderson also (situation). Finnegan 4th for me currently.
Rich
12:08
Hi Brent. BHQ’s ROS projection for Jeremy Peña is not particularly optimistic (.254 OBP, .697 OBP), but he’s hitting the ball really hard and making contact at a decent rate so far (albeit in a very small sample). Do you think the BHQ projection is selling Peña a bit short, and if so, what kind of slash line would you expect from him this year?
Brent Hershey
12:08
Think that is possible (that Peña outpaces our projection); his lack of healthy PT over the past few years in the minors affects our projection in that way. But ... also just one weekend, albeit positive. I'm thinking something in terms of .250/.310/.430 could be possible.
Rick
12:10
I know the season just started, but it appears Varsho is going to be the starting CF and 3rd in line for catcher. Do you see a way he will be able to get enough starts at catcher to keep eligibility there?
Brent Hershey
12:10
If Carson Kelly stays healthy all season, I doubt it. But Kelly, as with any catcher, is at a higher risk for injury, and then that might sway things a bit. But for now, I think it's more likely than not that this is Varsho's last year as C-eligible. Enjoy it!
Vince
12:12
In 10-team H2H Roto category league, drafted Ke’BHayes as last quality 3B option. Would you drop for Dalbec’s 40 HR, ample RBI, R potential? Anyone else like better than Hayes? Thanks
Brent Hershey
12:12
As long as 3B is not a problem eligibility wise for you ... yes, at this point I'd prob rather have Dalbec than Hayes in Roto category H2H.
Ron
12:13
Good to have you back on Mondays.  Who is my handcuff for Barnes (Bos)?
Brent Hershey
12:13
Only can go on last night so far, which would say Diekman. As long as Whitlock is stretched out and "bulking", Robles is probably the only other option right now.
D Katz
12:18
What's your speculation on how long Heliot Ramos can stay around, and his amount of playing time?
Brent Hershey
12:18
This is curious one. My guess is that he'll stay until Wade makes it back ... but what changed from Thursday that precipitated the call-up Sunday, as opposed to putting him on the OD roster? I've been wary of SF batters other than Crawford/Belt (and now maybe Flores) b/c of how much they platoon/mix and match. Has Ramos shown enough to transcend that? My gut is that rostering him now will just lead to frustration in that sense. Maybe you can stomach that in an NL-only, but not sure if he'll get the volume necessary in a mixed. Will be watching closely this week, though, for sure.
Dan G
12:23
Which pitcher is your bet for the most year-end saves among the bullpen committee teams?  Twins, Reds, O's, Marlins, Nats, Cubs, Rangers, Mariners, Giants.
Brent Hershey
12:23
That is: a) a long time frame; and b) a long list of teams!
I'd count Marlins, Nats, and Rangers most likely of that group to stick with one guy if they find him. The others are more likely to committee/matchup all year long. The problem is that none of that trio of teams is projected to be very good. But I'd probably say Bender in MIA or Rainey in WAS. A dark horse might be G Richards in TEX, once he gets back.
RK
12:24
Could you please rank Matz, Tylor Megill, and Paddack in a 5X5 H2H redraft categories league?  Thanks!
Brent Hershey
12:24
Megill a no-doubt #1, even before his start the other day. Then, slight pref of Matz > Paddack, due mainly to IF defense/park/depth of arsenal factors.
Will
12:27
4x4 al only keeper sleeper catchers please
Brent Hershey
12:27
Tough. Cal Raleigh, Zack Collins, Francisco Mejia. If you have minors slots and Adley/Moreno are gone, Korey Lee (HOU) could be one to consider.
Guest
12:31
4x4 AL only keeper league (15) with 3 minor league spots. Minor league draft happening now. Choosing between Cole Winn and Jose Rodriguez. A little surprised the #1 prospect for CHW in the organizational reports does not make the top 100 HQ prospect list. Rodriguez looks like he will be a 5 category contributor even though not going to be a star maybe more value then possible front line Pitcher in Fantasy?
Brent Hershey
12:31
Yes, Rodriguez a little under the radar, but that CHW system is pretty bare for fantasy purposes. Huge Winn fan; looked great in spring, big arsenal he can use,  already has AAA time so could be up quicker than you might think. Room for him this year, where likely not for Rodriguez. It's close, and rookie hitters are better bets than rookie pitchers, but I still lean Winn here.
Beano
12:35
Hi Brent - thanks for these wonderful Q&As! 2 quick questions: is Stott up to stay and what are your expectations for him?
Who is the closer for the Reds? Will it be Sims when it's all said and done?
Brent Hershey
12:35
I see April as the key to your Stott question. If either he or Bohm struggles big-time, I think that player could get sent out to AAA when the rosters go back to 26. If they are both doing OK, they could rotate things enough to make it work, to get Stott 65-70% of AB? He has only gotten more impressive as he's climbed the ladder, esp in the Arizona Fall League and spring training. Unlikely to be a fantasy standout, but enough pop/speed to be useful.
On CIN -- I'm not convinced there will be a "said and done" ending here; think it could be fluid all season. Will Sims get the most saves of that group? I'd probably say yes, if he can get/stay healthy. But that's no given.
Mike
12:37
Who do you like to close in Washington? Is Rainey the guy now? Is Rainey even good?
Brent Hershey
12:37
So far, so good. Watched both of his appearances this weekend, and command looks better and stuff was there. I drafted a lot of him over the winter, was lukewarm during spring, but encouraged on it today. Welcome to the roller coaster, lol.
Frank
12:41
Jo Adell's start makes me sad :(  It's only a couple games, but who do you think?
Brent Hershey
12:41
Same; worried about how both he and Marsh will be treated given Maddon's comments. Seems like I wrongly figured the Upton cleansing meant Adell/Marsh full time play. They started Rojas the other day -- tells me (along with the Ward love (?) ) that for some reason they're looking for ways to NOT play those two. And especially given Adell's huge spring, that message (you're still not good enough to play) is baffling given his talent and the investment they have in him. Granted, Adell's start has been horrific, but I just don't get this from a player development perspective. Hopefully this is only a 3-game sample and things get better. Just stating what I see.
Joey Jo-Jo Junior Shabadoo
12:48
With BA being such an unpredictable category - has anyone done any research into punting it?  Just load up on the Gallos and Sanos in the world dominate HRs and RBIs. I went that route this year and I'm very curious if it'll work.
Brent Hershey
12:48
Yeah, the problem is with your first phrase -- it's so unpredictable, it's hard to know FOR sure who is not going to contribute -- and eventually, a bad BA is likely to cost that player real-life AB, which adversely affects all those counting stats that you desperately need by punting BA. Of course that is team-dependent (mgr making lineup decisions) ... but it makes that strategy difficult to pull off. For every Sanó or Gallo, there's a Garrett Hampson type who WOULD contribute in other  counting stats IF he played enough. But he doesn't.
All that said, would be very curious to see how your squad works out ... no shame in trying it out. Good luck!
Reds in '22
12:51
Thoughts on Hunter Greene after his strong first outing? On the FA wire, would you take him now over starters with track records? (Dakota Hudson & Kikuchi come to mind in my league)  If he pitches well @ LAD it may be too late! Or am I over-hyped?!
Brent Hershey
12:51
We're still a bit cautious. He got knocked around in spring despite the triple-digit velo and have to wonder if he'd be in the rotation if Castillo/Minor weren't hurt. Can't take the weekend's start away from him for sure ... but scouting reports talked about his FB, with all the velocity,  lacking movement and being fairly straight. I'd still take him over Hudson right now, but would probably prefer Kikuchi if that was a choice. Don't get me wrong -- he's a ton of fun and I hope he succeeds -- it's just that several indications are he could use more MiLB seasoning.
Gene
12:54
Who do you like for saves in Minnesota's pen? Is Duran the sneaky (maybe not sneaky anymore) long term play?
Brent Hershey
12:54
Yep, long-term that's the shot I'm taking, BUT again, seems that Baldelli could be forever a matchups guy, the way he's handled things the past few years. Sometimes we forget just how important managerial and organizational philosophy is in this whole closer discussion.
Yarika
12:55
Thoughts on Lane Thomas? See him getting FT ABs at some point in next month?
Brent Hershey
12:55
Oh, I think he's their regular LF most days now. So, yes.
louMartelli
12:58
Rate Bobby Miller's chance of being a second half contributor.  And sticking with LA, are the Dodgers likely to hold Miguel Vargas for 2023 now that the DH is in NL (and Justin Turner's contract expires this year)?
Brent Hershey
12:58
Miller - 60%
Vargas - I'm skeptical, b/c LA shows time and again that they go out and get established players they need. With other orgs, we would have thought they'd have made room for Lux, Ríos, etc. They went out and bought a top SS last year when they already had one, etc etc. So while maybe Vargas' time will be 2023, I highly doubt they just plan on and give him the 3B job. Just the way LA does biz.
Brent Hershey
12:58
OK, will try to finish out w/ some quickies...
Rick
12:59
Hey Brent, Thanks for these chats. Assuming Varsho loses catcher eligibility, do you think he is good enough to be a long term outfielder for Arizona. I'm thinking Thomas and Carroll will be starting next year which leaves only one spot. I'm assuming Peralta will be gone as a free agent.
Brent Hershey
12:59
Yes, think he sticks in the OF
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