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April 18 BHQ Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:02
Happy Monday, all; thanks for showing up and/or reaching. Remember Rule #1 ... give me some context for the best answers (league size, pool, keeper vs. redraft, etc). Lots of stuff to cover; injuries galore, slow starters, rookie stumbles, etc. Onward!
Rick
12:04
Hey Brent, Let's say Barnes can bump up his velo a bit, but not to last years level. Do you see him getting the closer role back or will Boston need to go in another direction?
Brent Hershey
12:04
Seems to me that Barnes is still the option management would hope to choose. They can't do it right now as things are, but I'm holding in fantasy hoping for some skills rebound, b/c if that happens, I'll bet Cora plugs him in no problem. But results and usage patterns aren't really good right now.
Rick
12:07
Very early, but what level of concern regarding Wheeler (who got a late start to spring training) and Morton. Also, how excited are you regarding the start to the season for Wright and Heaney?
Brent Hershey
12:07
There will be lotsa ink spilled on Wheeler this week, esp given how everyone is (rightfully, in some cases) hyper-sensitive to velo changes. Read and follow these. I'm mildly concerned b/c his great success in 2021 also happened at his highest velo. But ... you'r spot-on re: the context of this season. If yesterday was his final spring start, we'd be waving it off b/c it was spring training. Next start will be huge for Wheeler, I think.
More excited for Wright going forward than Heaney, though that's a great story so far also. Would be super fun if both of those runs continued.
Grinder
12:08
5x5 NL only league. Heaney or Gore ROS?
Brent Hershey
12:08
Trusting the scouting reports here. Gore.
Will
12:13
Mateos final year end stats please. and thank you for doing these chats!
Brent Hershey
12:13
Back-of-napkin: .250 / 10 / 45 RBI / 30 SB / 50 RS; which is higher than BHQ's projection right now. One consideration -- could move up in that lineup if everything breaks right. Also I think there's more pop in the bat than some realize.
Joey Jo-Jo Junior Shabadoo
12:15
I know I know way too early BUT why is my AL-only team in last place? Is it because my 120 HR projected Sano-Gallo-Reyes combo have combined for 1 HR? lol
Brent Hershey
12:15
It's because you looked at the standings. Don't look the standings yet, lol. (Confession: I look at the standings every day)
Guest
12:18
Hi Brett.  Would you trade Josh Bell for Marcell Ozuna or Alex Verdugo in an OBP league?
Brent Hershey
12:18
If it's ONLY OBP you're seeking, Verdugo is your best bet. And though I think there's a next step for Alex in there somewhere (and that might come this year) ... I would prob lean towards hanging onto Josh Bell in this case.
Guest
12:20
good morning Brent, NL only, traditional 5 categories. I don't have any closers so trying to find wins, K's and  good plan B save alternatives.. any of these stand out : Lugo, williams/boxberger (brewers), mchugh,givens, johnson (SD), Hand, Doolittle/ Helsey , Mchugh or any other under the radar suggestions.. thanks
Brent Hershey
12:20
In an NL-only could seem that Williams would have value due to awesome ratios despite being behind Hader. I'd also have interest in Givens; he might have the best short-term saves potential. Hand/Helsley also look good so far, but a couple steps away from Svs.
Guest
12:21
How likely is Jesus Luzardo to finish the season as a top 15 SP?
Brent Hershey
12:21
Possible, but I wouldn't call it likely. 30%, maybe? That would be a super fun story.
Guest
12:24
How concerning is Bo Bichette's plate approach and how much could it affect his value ROS?
Brent Hershey
12:24
Not concerned yet. He's never been a big walk guy; my hunch is that he's had multiple 10-game stretches over his career where he's not walked once. This one just standing out b/c it's the beginning of the season. Worth asking again in 2-3 weeks though, if it doesn't improve.
Guest
12:27
How much has Andrew Vaughn's value risen in keeper leagues after this small sample size of excellent skills?
Brent Hershey
12:27
In keeper leagues, I don't think it has risen much, b/c positive batted-ball metrics said we should not have been too worried about 2021's disappointing stat line. Short-term ct% improvement is something to watch, though. Very positive outlook for 2022 if that continues.
Guest
12:31
The Ryan McMahon UP scenario from this years forecaster is happening, isn't it?
Brent Hershey
12:31
I'd be a terrible editor if I said anything other than yes, lol. Though thru his first 28 AB, the things mentioned in that last sentence are happening.
Ron
12:32
Hi Brent,  choose one SS for weekly points league that values HR and RBIs most: T Estrada or J Iglesias?
Brent Hershey
12:32
Estrada in a vacuum, but Jose might play more.
louMartelli
12:35
What are the chances Donovan Casey grabs 200 AB before it is all said and done this year in DC? I'm playing in a deep (40 man, NL only) keeper league and he's a FA out there still.
Brent Hershey
12:35
Could happen -- but at this point given his callup, that means he'll be up and down a lot in your scenario. However, I see two spots not very locked down in that WAS outfield. If your team is even partially rebuilding with that deep of a roster, my hunch is that you can find a spot for someone like Casey, just to see.
Guest
12:42
If we're rostering skills not roles, how aggressive should we be in adding Alec Bohm?
Brent Hershey
12:42
Is this a trick question? lol
As a Phils and Joe Girardi watcher, it seems to me that Johan Carmargo is this year's Ronald Torreyes; albeit a much better hitting version. I was skeptical when DaveD handed Girardi Stott/Bohm/Didi and claimed they'd work them in equally; that has most def not happened so far. Could go on and on here (re: baffling roster construction), but to answer your question: Not very, as long as this situation persists. Phils don't trust Bohm's defense, and they don't have the luxury of not playing him in the field. (If the NL only had a D-- ... ah, never mind). My guess is Bohm in Triple-A within two weeks. I hope I'm wrong
DrDave
12:45
What is your take on T. Estrada (SF) ?  Our draft is Sunday (delayed by unforseen circumstances).  Wondering about playing time and if he is worth a bid in 11 team NL only auction.
Brent Hershey
12:45
NL only; yes, he's worth a bid b/c of skills and versatility ... but not sure he gets enough PT once Longoria gets back and as long as B Crawford stays healthy. Seems like Flores and Estrada are overkill on that roster ... but they made it work last year. Great end-gamer, though; I'd just not acquire him expecting a full-time AB total.
DrDave
12:48
Late NL-only 11 team draft this Sunday.  Targeting Nola, Rodon, Manaea, Bassitt,Kelly, Megill, Heaney, Wright.  Which 2 can I realistically get for the best value for money spent?
Brent Hershey
12:48
Know your league is the best advice I can give. Wouldn't surprise me if Kelly and maybe Nola (?) are undervalued some. I'd keep an eye on Wright and Bassitt, too, though. My hunch would be Rodón/Manaea/Megill will be overpriced. Good luck!
Guest
12:49
Rookies J Lowe and J Rodriguez striking out a lot. Do you see them improving or more AAA time needed?
Brent Hershey
12:49
Isn't it amazing what 10 days can do? Have to figure J-Rod can't stay up long striking out at this pace. Feel l like Rays will be more patient w/ Lowe.
Dennis
12:51
What 2 or 3 metrics do you use to identify hitters that are on the rise or on the decline. I love the fluke or fact column but sometimes I want to do my own analysis.
Brent Hershey
12:51
Changes in contact rate is big one for me (though careful with it in short samples like this). Also look at exit velocity and barrels barrel rate on Statcast; and all in context of what player's history was prior to this season. Not the be-all, end-all, but just things I take into consideration.
Ron
12:53
Another quickie, Brent. Roll with India if he avoids DL?  Other weekly options are Odor or Lowrie.
Brent Hershey
12:53
If it's for the entire week ... that's tough. OAK does have a great schedule of opponents lined up (and 7 G). Lowrie more tempting than Odor. But could also just ride out India.
PriceIsRight
12:54
What should we make of Eddie Rosario's slooooooow start? I just dropped him and picked up OF Marsh in one of two leagues....should I pull the trigger in the other league, or hedge my bet by holding onto him there?
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