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Guest
4:29
How much will the Astros rotation lose with no Verlander, and McCullers health in question?
Anthony Franco
4:30
Obviously not having 175 innings of 1.75 ERA ball is going to hurt, although even Verlander himself wasn't going to replicate that again. A top six of Framber, Javier, Garcia, McCullers, Urquidy and Brown is still a top five rotation
Crane/Brown
4:30
Why do I think our rotation is deep? Sure there’s 6 legitimate guys that can start but if something else happens (LMJ is already down), Bielak is leading the Triple-A depth.
NW1545
4:30
With the McCullers ongoing injury concerns and an inexperienced Hunter Brown, do they add another experienced back of the rotation starter for depth?  Like a Chris Archer type?
Anthony Franco
4:31
Now yeah, I think this is the bigger concern. The group after Brown -- who's in because of the McCullers injury already -- is lighter than it has been. I wrote about this a few days ago
4:32
I don't think it's a huge concern. Most other teams have bigger issues than their sixth or seventh starter. That this is even a nitpick is a testament to how good the core of the Houston roster still is. But I do expect them to add a non-roster veteran in the Archer mold or someone who's currently in camp elsewhere and doesn't get a roster spot
4:33
Just lighten the need to count on J.P. France if somebody else goes down
Guest
4:33
why did they give rafael montero so much dough
Anthony Franco
4:34
He was really good last year. Pretty similar profile to Kendall Graveman actually, who got 3/27 the year prior from the White Sox
34.5 is higher than I'd have guessed but it's not crazy, especially in light of overall league spending being higher than anticipated this winter
Guest
4:34
What could a Framber extension look like?
Anthony Franco
4:36
Javier's $64MM is the largest guarantee for any starter in the 3-4 year service bucket. I can't see why Framber would sign for less than that. He's working from a stronger arbitration platform than Javier was, has a more established track record as a starter and is already 29
4:37
So unlike Javier, who'll still get to retest free agency before 31, Framber's basically giving up hope of a huge free agent payday if he signs an extension that runs through 2027
4:38
If you value his remaining arbitration years around $30-35MM and buy out two free agent seasons for around $25MM apiece, you're looking at something in the $80-85MM range over five years
4:39
That'd be well above the record for that service class but feels like the kind of range Valdez would need for it to make sense to sign away his one chance at a long-term deal. If that's the case, I can see why Dana Brown's suggesting he doesn't think it's getting done
Tucker
4:39
Is it tough to place a fair market value on Tucker because of his continued development in the majors? At the rate he seems to be maturing, what would you predict for a fair extension?
Guest
4:40
Assuming Kyle Tucker doesn't sign long term and walks after '24 - what is he worth on an open market?
Jack
4:40
Over/Under next Kyle Tucker contract at 7 years 180 million?
Anthony Franco
4:40
Might as well take this one now too
4:41
So Tucker's arb-eligible through 2025, to be clear. He has three seasons left before free agency
Right now, the Yordan deal feels like the cleanest comp. Alvarez is a better hitter, Tucker's not quite at that level offensively but doesn't come with the defensive or injury concerns
4:43
Yordan got 6/115 for his three arb seasons and first three free agent years. The implication from Jon Heyman's report and Brown's conversation with Chandler Rome yesterday is that Tucker's camp is shooting for more than six years
4:45
Now if they want an extra, say, $25MM to buy out a fourth free agent year, then that gets you to $140MM over seven. If they're trying for a deal that just buys out virtually his entire career, you're probably looking more in the Austin Riley range of $212MM over ten years
4:46
I think Houston should consider something around $140MM over seven if Tucker wanted that. If they're set on a decade, it feels like a non-starter for the team
Joey JoJo Jr. Shabadoo
4:46
Worst case scenario for this team, this year?
Anthony Franco
4:47
Injuries hit the rotation and Yordan and they miss the playoffs
Craning for a repeat
4:48
Other than the obvious large market bias, why do so many people think the Yankees and Mets have better rotations than Houston?
Anthony Franco
4:49
The Mets have two inner circle Hall of Famer at the top of their rotation. It's an old group but all those guys (aside from Kodai Senga) have strong career track records and haven't shown any signs of slowing down. I don't think it's crazy to prefer the Mets' rotation to Houston's
I'd take the Astros' group over the Yankees pretty easily after the Montas injury though
Craning for a repeat
4:50
Split the difference at 8 and $170M
I think they missed the window for Tucker
Anthony Franco
4:51
Perhaps. Even if they get to the point where he's on the verge of free agency, it's not inherently the worst thing in the world. They got six-plus great seasons from Springer and Correa and eventually backfilled
4:52
Part of being a great team for an extended run means good players are going to love sometimes. Not saying that's necessarily what happens with Tucker obviously, but they're not going to keep everybody past their allotted control window
Joey JoJo Jr. Shabadoo
4:53
Would you consider the 2022 Astros team the best championship team of the 00s? 05 Sox had starting pitching up the yazoo and were white hot in Oct, 09 Yanks were elite after their FA spending spree, 16' Cubs had elite SP, 17 Astros and 18' Sox were super elite respectfully but have baggage, etc. Your thoughts?
Anthony Franco
4:55
Man this is a great question. I'd need more time to think on it to go back to the turn of the century. Over the last 10 years, my off the cuff answer is I'd put them behind the '16 Cubs, '17 Astros and '20 Dodgers
4:57
People can feel how they want about the '17 Astros and '20 Dodgers for different reasons obviously. I take the view that those teams did win the title as that season played out and therefore are in the same position as anyone else. Not everyone will agree with that, of course
But both those teams felt like the clear best teams in MLB to me those seasons, as did the '16 Cubs. I thought the Astros were the best team in baseball going into 2017
Guest
4:58
which AL team has the best chance to dethrone HOU this season
Anthony Franco
4:58
I'd probably go with Toronto
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