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Astros Outlook '23
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Anthony Franco
11:02
Just have to ride it out. Not going to have any trade appeal at $19.5MM annually for two more years. The track record's good enough that I'd give him another shot next year in the hope that he figured things back out down the stretch
11:03
If he starts horribly again, have to consider adding a first baseman midseason and just accepting that the Abreu deal didn't work
Guest
11:04
If you look at Hunter Brown's splits he can be dominate in a 1st inning. After that, it gets shaky. Should the Astros consider him as a 7th/8th inning option paired with Abreu and maybe 2025 closer candidate?
Anthony Franco
11:06
I wouldn't go there after one season. Definitely had issues turning the lineup over multiple times (especially the third) this year but he just turned 25 and was navigating a full season against MLB hitters for the first time
11:07
If he puts up the same numbers in 2024 as he did this past season, I'd be more open to the argument for kicking him to relief -- although probably more in the two-inning mold of Chad Green or peak Chris Devenski than specifically as a setup guy
Ryan
11:07
Any chance they look at moving on from Jeremy Pena? Not sure the FA options or trade possibilities. While he made a "improvement" in 2023 during the regular season it was slight and has had 2 back to back poor OBP showings.
Anthony Franco
11:09
I think he's always going to be this kind of hitter. He has always gone out of the strike zone a lot. Has power and serviceable pure contact skills that are going to be undercut by the pitch recognition
11:10
I don't think he's a franchise building block necessarily but it's not easy to find a plus defensive shortstop who can offer anything offensively, even if it's inconsistent
11:11
The market context you referenced also cuts against a trade this offseason. The free agent shortstop class is atrocious, no one in the group is a regular. That's going to make other teams reluctant to trade a shortstop if they have one since they can't backfill in free agency
Guest
11:11
Jorge soler and the Astros a fit?
Anthony Franco
11:12
A few people have suggested Soler. Wouldn't be enthused about needing him or Alvarez playing left field every day, even in a home park that limits how much range you need out of those guys
Dmx
11:12
Locking up Framber seems the way to go. How much do you think gets it done?
Anthony Franco
11:15
Framber's tricky because he's already almost 30. Not scheduled to hit free agency until 32. Five or six years once he becomes a free agent still seems plausible if he's pitching this well, but I wouldn't feel great about tacking on more than four this far in advance
11:17
If you assume he makes around $28MM over his final two arbitration seasons, tacking on a little more than $20MM annually for four free agent years gets him into the $115-120MM range over six
Curious fan
11:17
Where do the Astros finish in 2024? Not like they’ll finish lower the 4th but the Rangers are only going to get better
Anthony Franco
11:18
Have to see what teams do this offseason but I'd have them above the Mariners right now and alongside the Rangers as co-favorites, probably a slight edge to Houston
Stuart
11:18
Brandon Bielak a potential trade piece? He’s out of options & unlikely to make the opening day 26 man roster. Someone could use him for SP depth or as a long reliever in the bullpen.
Anthony Franco
11:20
Not going to have much trade value given the lack of roster flexibility but they could probably get a marginal prospect as opposed to non-tendering him if they don't expect him to make the team
Matt
11:20
Any considerations of package of Pena, France and others to pry Luis Robert and Cease from CHI? Let Dubon take over SS
Anthony Franco
11:20
White Sox aren't considering this
OC
11:20
Likelihood of a Jake Meyers trade? Still has value as a defense first CFer & lost the job to both McCormick & Dubon. Meyers didn’t even make the ALCS roster as a pinch runner or defensive replacement. Also, Pedro Leon & Joey Loperfido could both be CF depth in AAA.
Anthony Franco
11:22
Yeah seems plausible. Could flip him for a depth starter or decent reliever with a couple seasons of control (similar to the Straw/Maton deal, albeit without a thrown-in prospect who breaks out like Diaz did)
Rich
11:23
For payroll flexibility should the Astros try and trade Ryan Pressly and Monterro for prospects?
Anthony Franco
11:24
Montero had a mediocre year in the first season of a three-year contract in which the Astros probably went above market value. He's not going to have much appeal even if they pay down some of the money
11:26
Pressly would, and I can see the argument for giving the ninth to one of Abreu or Graveman in that case. It's not impossible, but I'd feel better about it if they didn't have three relievers hitting free agency
Pressly also has full no-trade rights as a 10/5 player, so he'd have to sign off on moving
Nick
11:27
Out of the impending free agents who do you think the Astros bring back? If so AAV?
Anthony Franco
11:28
I'll go Maton. Two years, $12MM total
Lance
11:28
Who do you think would be interested in Urquidy and what kind of return?
Anthony Franco
11:29
Lot of teams could use cheap rotation depth. Reds, Braves, Cardinals, White Sox, D-Backs, Dodgers, Mets, Rockies could all fit
11:30
Urquidy wouldn't net any kind of top prospects, a couple middle-tier pieces from a farm system probably
Dana Brown
11:31
True or False: Dusty Baker cost me my first WS championship as a GM
Anthony Franco
11:33
Nah I think that's too simplistic. I also had issues with some of Dusty's management in Game 7 -- left France in for too long in, should've hit for Maldonado when he had a couple guys on base in the fourth or fifth inning -- but the bigger issue is that the Rangers blitzed Javier right out of the gate and basically never let up offensively
Oriole nut
11:34
I see you say many teams could use cheap rotation depth.. that probably makes them all not so cheap anymore huh??? lol
Anthony Franco
11:34
Cheap in the sense that Urquidy's projected for a $3.5MM arbitration salary
11:36
He'd have a market but not every team that wants a starter is going to prioritize him specifically. He battled shoulder issues and had a 5.29 ERA with a 16.4% strikeout rate this year. There'll be some teams that are out on him even if they need rotation help in general
Alright I have to wrap this one up
11:37
Thanks for hanging out this morning! Sorry if I didn't get to your question. I'm on Twitter/X @affranco10 if you want to reach out with anything else
I also do a chat every Friday afternoon for Front Office subscribers. I get to the majority of those questions since there aren't as many people in there
11:38
If that's of any interest, you can find more about our memberships here
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