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Astros vs. Rays ALDS Game 4 Chat
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Ben Clemens
7:59
But in a series? WPA
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
7:59
I'm trying to think of players that wouldn't dominate in basketball, all I can think of is CC around the time when he complained about people bunting on him.
Ben Clemens
8:00
Yeah but if it's make it take it you'd never get the ball. He'd just back you down in the paint.
5 Run Homer
8:01
CC would absolutely ruin any of us in a pickup game. It wouldn't even be fun
Lunar verLander
8:01
What age'd-basketball player do you think could beat an MLB player at basketball? At some point, basketball skill has to overcome a disparity of athleticism...high school?
Ben Clemens
8:01
I think one-on-one is pretty different from basketball.
8:02
None of these dudes can necessarily switch a screen or help intelligently off the ball.
Matt
8:02
Why do I feel like this game is going to come down to a walk-off catwalk ball?
Ben Clemens
8:02
But if it's just like, hey there are two of us and I get paid millions of dollars a year to be athletic?
Meg Rowley
8:02
please dear god
Mike
8:02
I remember TNT having an all sports contest type thing with their NBA announcers one all star weekend. Ernie Johnson destroyed all of them because none of them had any coordination outside of basketball.
Meg Rowley
8:02
Yeah CC's knee is pretty messed up but that's about all that would save you
Ben Clemens
8:02
I'm going to try to dig this up. I would have taken Kenny for sure.
stever20
8:04
What does advanced metrics say about a starter going up vs a team a 2nd time in a series, like Verlander tonight, or the 4 guys starting tomorrow....  Are there any predictive things out there?
Ben Clemens
8:04
I honestly haven't seen any. I believe Ben Lindbergh wrote about this either at Grantland or the Ringer at some point and didn't find anything, but I could be mistaken.
Meg Rowley
8:05
that sounds familiar to me too
Ben Clemens
8:05
I know there's little if any effect from seeing a reliever twice in the same series
Pham just killing Verlander tonight.
8:06
He'd love to not have had to throw more pitches there.
Dodger fan
8:06
Leaving Verlander in this game seems like a huge mistake: after 30 pitches it was reasonable to think he could still be ready for Saturday (3 days rest after an extra-long bullpen), now he's just gonna be unavailable.
Ben Clemens
8:07
So, eh. Marginal, I think, because Cole could still go G3/G7 ALDS, and Verlander G2/G6
With Grienke G1/G5
That'd all be normal rest.
8:08
You give up some edge b/c Verlander is marginally less likely to pitch twice going 2/6 than 1/5
But mehhhhhhh.
It's thin.
An option
8:08
I think we may have underestimated the Rays a bit...
Meg Rowley
8:10
their offense is appreciably worse than the Astros' but they're a good ball club
Dodger fan
8:10
yeah but whatever risk-taking you were talking about with Urquidy is easily realized by sending home out there for the 2nd inning, and if he pitches well you just have a 3 run deficit to make up against a bullpen
Ben Clemens
8:10
Yeah- if Verlander doesn't have it, get him out of there. I think you and I would agree he doesn't look great. It seems that AJ Hinch doesn't agree.
8:12
When Verlander isn't hanging his breaking balls, they look every bit as sharp as normal.
That's a big "when," though.
5 Run Homer
8:14
Girardi and Pierzynski make a good combo
Connor
8:14
Why does Girardi address all of his comments to AJ -- it feels like he's passive aggressively angry at the other guy
Ben Clemens
8:15
Honestly I hadn't noticed that but they're growing on me.
I've liked Girardi's insights a lot and aside from maybe talking too much about catching (which is understandable!) AJ has had some good points.
Savi
8:16
How much are the Yankees loving this DS round? They sweep easily, Dodgers may get bounced and Houston has to really work for it.
Ben Clemens
8:17
I'd note that Dan and ZiPS like the Nats a lot and I think would have had them favored over the Dodgers if they had home field? But yes, the more games the better.
Matt
8:19
Maybe the answer is that the ZiPS simulations are time consuming, but I think a cool addition to the ZiPS series projection would be to show the odds for the potential series in the future.
Meg Rowley
8:20
sort of sorts itself out with just the odds of a team advancing in insolation
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