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Astros vs. Yankees ALCS Game 1 Chat
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AvatarJay Jaffe
8:05
Hello folks, and welcome to the FanGraphs ALCS Game 1 chat. I'll be joined by Dan Szymborski shortly and we'll get this thing up to speed. For the moment, here's my ALCS preview: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/postseason-preview-new-york-yankees-vs-hou...

And here's Dan's ZiPS-driven game-by-game odds. https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/post-season-zips?seas...
Shaun
8:08
Is this a “must-win” for the Yankees? Down 1-0 with Verlander and Cole on full rest in games 2-3 doesn’t sound great.
AvatarJay Jaffe
8:10
I'm hesitant to call any single game outside of an elimination game a must-win, but obviously, the Yankees' road to four wins is more difficult if they lose tonight, and the likelihood that they can beat both Verlander AND Cole in back-to-back games would mean that they're almost certainly playing from behind.
Guest
8:11
It is a pleasure to share this evening with you in this chat, Jay.
AvatarJay Jaffe
8:12
Thanks, it's good to be here. I previewed this series and I'll be covering the New York leg of the series on-site, so I thought it would be worth chatting during it as well. Emma and I are home watching baseball anyway
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:13
Good evening!
AvatarJay Jaffe
8:14
That Aaron Judge fly out had a 32 degree launch angle and a 102.8 mph EV. The Statcast tool says that's a homer 76% of the time over the past five seasons. Fat part of the ballpark on that drive, but maybe also another one of those "if this were the juiced ball" shots
8:15
Good first inning for Greinke, 1-2-3 on 12 pitches
and hello, Dan!
Eric
8:15
was that ball gone with the regular season ball?
Guest
8:15
Judge flyball a HR in the regular season?
5 Run Homer
8:15
Do you think that’s a homer with the regular season ball?
AvatarJay Jaffe
8:16
everybody wanted to know!
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:16
It's weird, I was hearing rumors about the playoff balls being different before the playoffs started and I dismissed it as black helicopter stuff. I'm not so sure now.
Mr. Flask
8:17
This is a series of favorite vs. favorite. A nice contrast to the underdog vs. underdog NLCS.
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:17
Who Are Your Rooting For?
Astros (41.5% | 44 votes)
 
Yankees (41.5% | 44 votes)
 
Both (0% | 0 votes)
 
Neither (5.7% | 6 votes)
 
Sweet Meteor o' Death (11.3% | 12 votes)
 
Total Votes: 106
Eric
8:18
Dan dan da Chevy man!
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:18
I don't have a Chevy! My mom used to have a Celebrity with a Caprice engine in it for some reason when I was a kid
Jay
8:19
Don't want to be a downer later in chat so may as well ask now before the game gets good... Skaggs news is tragic as is the Angels involvement. What can baseball do to better support players battling these types of addictions?
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:19
I think you need teams themselves to be more involved rather than MLB centrally - they simply know their people better.
Magic Kingdome
8:19
What is Dan’s cat’s best pitch?        
The fur-ball
Guest
8:20
Would HOU vs WAS World Series be the best starting rotational match up ever?
AvatarJay Jaffe
8:20
The thing about the de-juiced ball theory is that even with what Rob Arthur showed about the drag being different, the average fly ball distance is higher than the regular season, 326 feet to 323. More likely that my finding is a sample size issue than his, but it's still something that sticks out right now.
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:21
Thinking about this.
8:25
Not finding a better one looking at random WS.
The late 70s Yankees rotation wasn't as deep as memory said.
AvatarJay Jaffe
8:25
The 1948 World Series had Feller and Lemon for the Indians and Spahn and Sain for the Braves (among others on both sides including Satched Paige in Cleveland's bullpen). 1963 had Koufax, Drysdale and Ford.
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:25
I ahven't gone back before about 1970 yet.
Jason
8:25
I wish the networks would show us somehow when there's a shift. I hate seeing the ball up the middle, and not knowing there's a guy there til the last second.
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:25
It would be.
Hire Joe Morgan?
8:26
Dear Dan,

Hong Kong French toast occurs when a peanut butter and jelly sandwich is deep fried, slathered in butter, and served with maple syrup.  It is eaten with a fork and knife.  Is this a sandwich?

Thank you, kindly.
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:26
Sandwich with knife and fork is a plutocrat sandwich.
Hire Joe Morgan?
8:26
Also, hi Jay and Dan!  Thanks for chatting.
Jay
8:26
What odds would you put on Altuve making the hall of fame?
AvatarJay Jaffe
8:27
Better than 50%, i think.
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:27
He's going to be way up there in hits unless he goes Sax.
He'll be around 1600 when he has his 30th birthday.
AvatarJay Jaffe
8:27
3 batting titles and a ring already, about 3 seasons away from 2,000 hits
8:29
JAWS-wise, Altuve has some low-hanging fruit to improve, as his 5th through 7th best seasons are 4.8, 3.7 and 1.4 WAR
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:29
ZiPS has him ending right near 3000
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