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Aug30 2021 Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:04
Here we go! Rounding third into crunch time, to badly mix metaphors. Thanks to all who have showed up; there's much to chat about. Reminder that the more specific the questions -- along w/ league parameters, rules, etc -- the better answer I can give. Choosing or ranking x number of players much preferable to open-ended Qs. With that out of the way, let get it!
Jack
12:06
Do you think Barnes and Trivino get their closing job back this year? Will either be the favorite to open 2022 as closer?
Brent Hershey
12:06
This year: Barnes - yes; Trivino - 50/50. Since midseason, Trivino's underlying metrics said he was over his skis; it's finally catching up. And similar answer for open 2022 -- I'd have more faith in Barnes than Trivino as being the fave for their jobs. Saves! Such fun!
Jack
12:09
How would you rank Jung, Miranda, and Bohm for 2022 and beyond? Do any of them stand out? Thanks.
Brent Hershey
12:09
For 2022, Jung - Bohm - Miranda. Beyond that, Jung - Miranda - Bohm. Part of the reason for the "beyond" switch is that it's my hunch that  2022 will be the last year Bohm has 3B eligibility. (1B or OF more likely by then)
Ron
12:14
Hi Brent, I seek advice on tough lineup choices (flotsam vs. jetsam) in a weekly points league where HR, RBI, W and QS trump everything else. 1. At 3B, start Gino Suarez (vs. 4 LHP this week) over Chang, Tsutsugo, or A. Diaz?  2. At DH, start E. Rosario (vs. 5 RHP) over Belt or J. Meyers? 3. At SP, start Freddy P over Barria, Otto, or B Wilson (2 starts)?   Thanks.
Brent Hershey
12:14
  1. Suarez has been WORSE against LHP than RHP both in '20 and '21. Wonder if Tsutsugo isn't a better choice here. A Diaz could also be consideration, but think his PT gets dinged w/ Bregman being back.
  2. Belt's been pretty good recently; and is Rosario for sure a straight platoon? Belt for me
  3. Yes, stick with Peralta. Other choices OK, but lean "too cute"
  4. Good luck!
Bob
12:16
Do you think Adelberto Mondesi will finish up the year strong?
Brent Hershey
12:16
I know he has a history of some strong finishes, but the injury, repeated setbacks and ugly plate discipline make this a player I'd least want to count on down the stretch.
davidhuntlaw
12:18
I have been holding on to Patrick Corbin, is it time to call it ?
Brent Hershey
12:18
Always depends on your other choices ... but in most cases, yeah, time to fold here. Definitely one of my worst calls this spring, as I was pumping him (and rostering him -- ugh) for a rebound.
davidhuntlaw
12:18
I have been holding on to Patrick Corbin. Is it time to call it ?     I have Elieser Hernandez , Reynaldo Lopez , and Jesus Lazardo available to me on waivers this week.  Thanks
Brent Hershey
12:18
Ah ... your other choices! Yes, in this order.
Jim D
12:24
Hi Brent - talk me off the ledge, please: Drew Smyly - 144 BPV and 5.1 command last 31 days, 5.21 era - 2 starts - dodgers at home and the Colorado - defending wins and k's in a 10 team redraft with a 3 pts total at risk in the ratios. Is that moderate risk or suicide? Many thanks!
Brent Hershey
12:24
Moderate risk, just b/c it's Smyly. BUT ... 2H has been better (more SwK, Ks) and strand rate has killed that ERA in Aug. Our SP ratings say it's not a terrible two-step.
Jim D
12:26
Hi again Brent - Bob Melvin, with Puk, Trivino, Romo and Chafin available to face 2RHB and 1LHB (Gardner), chose Chafin even tho he had thrown 12 good pitches the night before while Romo 16 pitches, 2 runs. I'm thinking the odds are 3 to 1 that he's leaning towards Chafin as sole closer if continues to work. What do you think? Saves is the big prize in my league and I don't know if I have the stomach for Colome who is also available. A thousand thanks!
Brent Hershey
12:26
Yeah, that's the latest info we have, and it worked, right? Also Melvin seems to lean towards one guy. Chafin's underlying metrics have been super. It's a solid process to say the next Sv chance comes Chafin's way.
Jim
12:32
Is (red-hot) Bryson Stott a September call-up who will be given ABs? Wouldn't it be nice for an organization that has whiffed on player development as badly as the Phils to get a lift from a prospect who actually contributes?
Brent Hershey
12:32
You mean like they got from Bohm last year? Sorry, that might be too close ... I think a Stott call-up is pretty unlikely, due to 1) burning a 40-man roster spot before they have to; 2) only adding 2 Sept guys; 3) remember how hitter-friendly Reading is. I'd rather they punch him up to AAA for 2-3 weeks, then start him there in 2022, making sure he can hit at that level before considering a mid-season 2022 callup.
Lou
12:37
Drafted Andy Pages in a deep keeper league. Is he progressing toward a projectable starter's role by 2023? The concern with LA, of course, is he becomes a 2022 trade chip.
Brent Hershey
12:37
Yes, some good and bad in Pages' profile: .255/.383/.529 slash, with 26 HR in 102 games there. So power is for real, but comes with considerable swing and miss (113 Ks in those 102 games). Does take a walk, though. A 2023 debut could still be in play ... but as he doesn't look like one of LA's top echelon of prospects given their deep stable — yes, he's def a 2022 trade chip. Can't count on it, but in that mix.
Beano
12:41
Hi Brent! Thanks for these- they're great! Ok - in my NL 5x5 11-team, I'm in 1st by 5pts. I think my hitting will be fine. I do need wins and Ks - I have: S Gray, Hendricks, bumgarner, I Anderson, Ynoa, Urias, Bednar and M White (8-pitchers in this league). Are those guys enough? Do I need to waive one? Available: B Anderson, Lauer, M Keller, B Wilson, Lester, Mills, Espino and Gomber is on waivers next week.

Thanks.
Brent Hershey
12:41
So, White would be the only pitcher I'd consider chopping from your current group ... but not sure any of the options you list here are enough to pull that trigger. Maybe Gomber ... but he's had a rough August that included skills taking a bit of a step back. I'd prob sit tight for now.
G
12:47
12 man keeper league H2H points where HRs are king as well as pitching wins and Ks, have to choose from the following:

Vlad, Tucker, Olson, Franco, Adell, Teoscar, Franmil

Kershaw, Darvish, Verlander, Sixto, Kopech, Ian Anderson, Sandoval
Sorry, I pressed enter before I could finish but I need help deciding on my 12 out of the 14 guys I listed. Thank you Brent, you're the man
Brent Hershey
12:47
Thanks! Nice group, obviously. Think I'd cut the two guys w/ the murkiest futures from a health standpoint: Verlander and Sixto (which pains me to say). Some Q about Anderson's K rate, but the team context (W) kind of makes up for that. Adell is your 'weakest' hitter from the parameters given, but he's going to hit HR for sure.
RobC
12:52
Do you see any of these first half studs / second half disappointments having a rebound? Adam Frazier, Austin Gomber or Carson Kelly?
Brent Hershey
12:52
If I have to pick one of the three, it's Kelly, though more from a straight production (that early HR barrage was HR/F wackiness). But also wonder if the wrist injury for him is completely healed. Frazier's August (ct% and hard contact slipped, what power he had disappeared) coinciding w/ the trade makes me nervous. I'd want to feel better about Gomber's skills as a Rockie first, which I don't.
Rich
12:56
Hi Brent.  Harrison Bader was great in July and terrible in August.  What should we expect in September?  Is he even rosterable in 12-team mixed OBP leagues at this point?
Brent Hershey
12:56
Directly related to his contact rate. Was bonkers-good in May (though bad luck suppressed surface numbers) and July (when 'normal' luck got us excited), but regressed to roughly career numbers (IE, very bad) in August --- and we saw the results. At this point, I don't think he's rosterable in 12-teamers unless his K rate flips as the calendar does.
Kris Olson
12:58
Fewer September call-ups allowed this year, I know. But which handful of guys do you most have your eye out for?
Brent Hershey
12:58
How about a type: since I don't think we'll see a lot of the top prospects, I'm going to pay attention to second-tier rookies who have some sort of successful MiLB track record. One who comes to mind from this week: Glenn Otto (TEX); who had great K/BB rates in the minors w/ Yanks this year. So, those types of players is who I'll be sorting through.
Rick
1:02
Quantrill has really looked good lately and he was at one time a highly rated prospect. Think he can be a better than a mid-rotation starter?
Brent Hershey
1:02
Well, it's Cleveland, so I guess he could rise above mid-rotation starter, but wouldn't count on it. However, sure seems like his Aug step forward (K%, GB%) can be traced to a huge jump in swinging strike rate (7.1 in Jun/Jul; 11.2 in Aug). He also had some good fortune in over that time (he's NOT a 1.42 ERA pitcher, of course), but the skills bump was real. But taking a rid-rotation starter with league average walk rate and K'ing a batter per inning the rest of the way? I'll take it.
Brent Hershey
1:02
Quickies from here on ...
Rick
1:04
Assuming KC actually gives Olivares regular playing time, what are the chances he can take over CF from Taylor long-term?
Brent Hershey
1:04
Possibly, as Taylor's just on a one-year deal. But he's done everything they want as CF and could see him re-signing there. My feeling is Olivares ends up on a corner
RobC
1:07
Please rank these catchers for rest of 2021 and 2022, G Sanchez, C Kelly, D Varsho. 5x5 league and 5x5 + OPS
Brent Hershey
1:07
2021: Sanchez/Kelly/Varsho
2022: Kelly/Sanchez/Varsho, though a lot closer
Royals fan
1:08
After all the ups and downs is Edward Olivares worth stashing as a cheap keeper for 2022 or is he more likely a 4th OF type?  Part of me says if they don't believe in him why should I.
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