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August 1 2022 BHQ Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:00
Good Monday, and good to be here on this Trade Deadline eve. Thought we'd have some more deals by now, but no matter ... let's get to it!
Beano
12:03
C Morel seems to have fallen back to earth - is he still useful for the 2nd half?
Brent Hershey
12:03
Yes, on both counts. Lots of swing and miss as part of the profile, so prone to ups/downs. Not all metrics have fallen off, though. Contact and hard contact actually improved from Jun to July. Think he'll get lots of run in the 2H and tools say he could be useful in the right fantasy lineup.
Eddie
12:08
How long do you think the Tigers will keep Torkelson in the minors? What do you see for CJ Abrams?  2B, SS or OF?
Brent Hershey
12:08
Well, teeny sample, but he's actually hitting WORSE in Triple-A than he did in MLB:
MLB (298 PA): 197/282/296
AAA (39 PA): 167/231/238
So, not right away; I'd think they'll want to see him have success before brining him back. By the end of the year, I'd think.
Abrams - depends on his future team. If he's NOT in SD, my hunch is new club puts him at SS. If he stays, I think it's a mix of all three of the above, even though sometimes that works for young players; other times not.
Michael
12:10
hi brent, AL only Best choice for saves for rest of year and next year- Jonathon hernandz, zach Jackson or Peter Fairbanks? Thanks
Brent Hershey
12:10
Hernandez. Always has looked like the bullpen part (before the injury), that's what I saw yesterday, and he's in the best situation (manager leans towards one guy).
Brian K
12:16
Hi Brent, What's up with Myles Straw? He hasn't stolen a base since July 4th.
Brent Hershey
12:16
Nor has he attempted one, which is odd. Combination of several things: he's just not a good hitter; bb% trend is a straight line down month-over-month; he may well not have the green light at the bottom of the lineup now for some reason. I'm not immune—have Straw in several spots, regrettably—but yes, ROS doesn't look good.
Worst thing: he'll remain in the lineup b/c his CF defense is that good. Frustrating player
Bob
12:18
What do you expect for Aaron Ashby ROS?
Brent Hershey
12:18
Ups and downs like we've seen so far. Team is good, which helps, and K potential, but like him better as in a keeper league than a redraft. We have him 3.50 ERA/1.25 WHIP the rest of the way. Good chance team  limits his innings rest of the way, too.
Guest
12:20
Thank you. Holmes in trouble to lose job? Singer for real? fernandez (tex) and puk(As) to get closer jobs? Appreciate all you do ror us roto heads!
Brent Hershey
12:20
a) not yet, but watchable
b) yes; has finally learned to incorporate change-up. That start @NYY was something
c) Think you mean Hernandez (Jonathan) in TEX -- yes (see above). Puk? Doesn't seem they are grooming him for that role right now; though trade deadline could shake things up. Still TBD.
Beano
12:25
One more! What is the hope/outlook for R McMahon? He's been awful but I think they have to play him to justify that monster contract. Can he turn it around in the 2nd half?
Brent Hershey
12:25
Been rough and disappointing so far, but some underlying metrics give some hope for the short-term. Hasn't given ALL of his ct% gains back, and Statcast metrics look good -- career-high barrel% and MaxEV. Still just tons of swing and miss. Not hopeless .. but could be another streaky player over ROS.
Rich
12:28
Hi Brent. 5X5 H2H league with OBP instead of AVG. would you prefer Alec Bohm or Nathaniel Lowe at CI for ROS?  If Bohm’s move up the batting order (batting third lately) sticks, he could generate a bunch of runs and rbi, albeit with limited power. Lowe has more over-the-fence power, and hits fifth in a decent lineup, but Bohm has been on fire over the past month.
Brent Hershey
12:28
I'm convinced Bohm's improvements mechanically (getting foot down earlier) have gotten him on time and fueled this recent run. And every once in a while, he opens up and turns on a ball and it's easy power. He's not needed to be a core guy in that lineup right now, which is serving him well. Think there's more upside in general than with Lowe.
Quad 4's
12:29
Tristin McKenzie (AZ, HOU) or Andrew Heaney (@SF, SD) in 12tm h2h pts?
Brent Hershey
12:29
McKenzie by a hair ... even though HOU is prob the scariest of the four matchups.
Splash Gordo
12:30
Hi Ray, How is the new crop of writers working out? Seems like some solid wordsmiths climbing aboard.
Brent Hershey
12:30
Very well, thanks ... excited about the new folks we've brought on at BHQ. Sets us up well for the future. Thanks for subscribing!
Porcho Villa
12:34
Dealing with some difficult drop decisions with Devers and Peralta coming back this week. Rank these drop candidates (5x5 H2H OBP / QS): Mountcastle, Walker, A. Vaughn, Pasquantino, J. Rojas, Houck, Wood
Brent Hershey
12:34
The three that stand out to me are Wood, Houck, Mountcastle (lack of OBP)
Koz
12:37
Good afternoon.  In an NL only Scoresheet league...my rotation is Scherzer, Kershaw (recent acquisition), Musgrove, Strider....and who is the best bet as my 5th starter moving forward?  Giolito, Alex Wood, Alex Cobb? I've been micromanaging up to this point with poor results, so hoping to set and forget for the next month.
Brent Hershey
12:37
Giolito ... but I'd give him a small hook, esp if you have both Wood and Cobb to jump in. LG has taken a step back for sure ... but via our metrics, it's not as bad as current surface stats indicate.
Ron
12:40
Hi Brent,
Also, which two players are most valuable ROS power centric points league. Is this order correct? I like Diaz and do not what to make of DeJong.

Aledmys Diaz; Paul DeJong; Ramon Urias; Jake McCarthy; Ha-seong Kim; Carson Kelly (I start Raleigh)
Brent Hershey
12:40
I'd go Urías and either DeJong (tho the Ks could be a prob in points) or McCarthy (more well-rounded; decent BAs in minors). Don't trust Diaz's PT going forward; even with the huge surge last week.
Gabe
12:43
Schmidt taking up some of the slack as Yankees closer, or is Holmes's job still safe?
Brent Hershey
12:43
Guess it's possible; but I don't see it as probable. Schmidt's saves are of the 3-inning variety IIRC. Wonder if he will be employed in a Whitlock-like role ROS. As for Holmes ... I think he still gets the next save opp, but it will be huge for how Yanks deploy him ROS. Think Chapman or someone else there could be tried if Holmes continues to struggle.
Dan
12:47
Brent: Your thoughts about Oneil Cruz going forward. I've turned down a couple of offers hoping to use him as a building block in my (14 team) keeper league. What can I expect in 2023 and beyond? Thanks for your insights.
Brent Hershey
12:47
In a keeper where you can afford to hold him this year (not forced to play him OR not in a race), there's no way I'd deal him right now. Tool set is just too explosive and rare. Not 100% convinced it fully matures into a roto monster and he'll take some time, but that exactly what he has right now in PIT. Could be 25/25 shortstop at least in 2023 (likely w/ a bit of a BA hit) if it breaks right, with additional upside in future seasons. COULD be ... that's why I'd try to hang onto him for now, even during the struggles, if you can.
herbscoresheet
12:50
(NL-only, playing for 2023.)  Is Bailey Falter's a #4 SP (or worse) or do you think he has a chance to be pretty good?
Brent Hershey
12:50
Not on the same talent level as Cruz, but could be same situation, where rest of 2022 gets his feet wet and/or sets foundation for more. BUT ... Phils could also well push him out of that ROS with another SP add in the next two days. Think it's still a #4/#5 SP outcome in the end, though there will be some highlight starts as his last one was. 93ish velo (rather than 90-91) is important key to his success.
Brent Hershey
12:51
Wow, tons of Qs left. Need to stay short here, he says to self.
Quad 4's
12:51
Alex Cobb or Sonny Gray ROS?
Brent Hershey
12:51
Gray
Ron
12:53
Good morning Brent.  Thanks for the weekly insight. I am hunting saves and SAVES ONLY at the trade deadline and need to prioritize my cuts after FAAB. Is this the correct order for best chances of saves ROS? Evan Phillips > A.J. Puk > Scott Effross >>> Hunter Harvey >>> Andres Munoz > Will Vest >> Joe Jimenez (Soto not being traded?)  Where does this list turn to garbage speculation? After Effross?
Brent Hershey
12:53
Would but Munoz #4; and after that is the "garbage" (your words, lol)
KC
12:54
Happy Monday, Brent. In AL-only league. Which young starting pitchers appear to face the highest probabilities of being shut down in September from pitch limits?
Brent Hershey
12:54
Kirby, Bello, maybe Detmers?
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