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August 2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat
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AvatarRoger Conrad
6:10
I think Centuri could be a beneficiary. They made a large bet on offshore wind buildout when they were still part of Southwest Gas Holdings--which obviously has not panned out.  I think it's generally a solid company. But it may take some patience to own it.
Sohel
6:12
Hi Elliot, Could you comment on how the Treasury plan to buy back long term treasuries is going to work and is it really going to lower rates? It does not appear to be working.  Is all that money printing going to drive inflation? How soon do you think it will kick in? Part II - all the borrowing that is going on to build data centers and other infrastructure - what is the impact this will have on the economy and the stock market? Reminds me of all the fiber optic cable laying in 1999 and beyond.
AvatarElliott Gue
6:12
The US Treasury has been buying back bonds since May 2024. Bessent announced he was up-sizing the amount of buybacks in the 20-30 Year maturity range. This does not add to the money supply. Basically, when you see people talk about the 30-Year yield, that's based on the current benchmark Treasury -- the most recent 30-Year issue. We call that the "on the run" bond. Right now, it's the 5.25% Treasuries due August 15, 2056.  Now, once the Treasury conducts a new auction -- sometime in November for the 30Y -- that will become the "on the run" bond and the current issue is dubbed "off the run." Thee bonds don't just disappear -- they're floating around trading in the secondary market but, over time, liquidity declines.SO, what happens is that Treasury borrows more money by issuing new bonds (Bills, notes or bonds). This pulls money out of the economy (temporarily) and then buys back some of the off-the-run bonds. That puts the money back into the system. Yes, it can have some specific impacts on parts of the
AvatarElliott Gue
6:12
curve -- ie supporting the long bond if the buyback is funded through shorter-term issues. But it doesn't push money directly into the banking system in the same was as QE would do. The operations will run from September 9th until early November. 30-Year yields are at around 5.2%, off the highs of 5.337% in August and at about the same level as they were a month ago. More broadly we're sitting in the same neighborhood as late 2023, a level the market has struggled to push through on multiple attempts.
Robert B
6:12
Given the attention for future energy from nuclear fission and fusion by but a few companies that are either highly priced or not having bragging rights with generated profits, would it not be worthwhile to consider NLR
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:12
I would prefer Brookfield Renewable--which is cheap and owns 50% of Westinghouse, the effective national champion of US nuclear. They actually have real earnings. It's hard to make a recommendation of something that just trades on ether--or even a collection of largely earnings-less stocks in an ETF.
AvatarElliott Gue
6:12
As for data centers, I think we could get to a ’99 like overbuilding situation eventually but I ma not convinced we’re there yet. The hyperscalers today are in a far, far better financial position than the telecoms doing the build out back in the late 1990s. Also, while a company like Google, for example, has a massive upfront capital commitment, these are supported by a longer term backlog of customers for AI-related services.
We are hearing a lot, an awful lot about AI from energy companies, for example, on their calls. I think the path to monetizing AI is less speculative than the networking spend we saw in the late 1990s.
susan p
6:22
Hi again and thanks for the thoughts on the dollar's purchasing power v.v. investing. This question stems from Elliott's insightful commentary on biotech for CW. I loved the way Elliott studies the major players 13Fs!...For E, wondering if any specific companies stand out as paticularly promising, knowing volatility is a given with biotech. For R, wondering if ARE has taken on a brighter light from a fledging return to favor for the sector? With appreciation and respect,
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:22
Thanks Susan. I've been looking at Alexandria REITs Q2 results and will have analysis in the REIT Sheet issue. But the short answer is they still have a ways to go in their recovery and overcoming the business headwinds they face. I see signs of things improving in the results and notably they've maintained guidance. They're the best in class but I think we're going to have to be patient with it.
AvatarElliott Gue
6:23
Thanks for the question and kind comments. IN CW, we recommended 3 names of varying risk levels. AbCellera (ABCL) has already blown through our buy targets (it has doubled since mid-July) after they announced a positive readout on their clinical trials for a drug to treat hot flashes.  MIRM is an interesting name -- basically rare disease biotech -- they have a PDUFA date coming up on September 26th (basically the FDA weighs in on one of their drugs) so the risk there is a little more binary. The largest fund I track has a large position in INCY and one of the founders is on the board. AT the same time, INCY recently signed a deal with MIRM and the fund added to its position in MIRM.  Four of the 5 funds i track have been adding to their position in RYTM as well; the company has a rare disease portfolio. I have 3 or four more names I'm looking at from the latest crop of 13Fs -- may be adding some of those names in the next week or two.
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:24
Well that's all we have in the queue. Thanks everyone for joining us today. We appreciate your business and those were some great questions to give us food for thought!
If your question wasn't fully addressed, please drop us a line at service@capitalisttimes.com
We will be sending you a link to the complete Q&A tomorrow morning.
6:25
Have a great rest of the summer everyone. We look forward to chatting with you next time.
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