August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat -- 1/19/16
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august fagerstrom
12:21
I rank it as a complete and total crapshoot, maybe moreso than any division. The only thing I think I'd be confident in is ranking the Twins as the fifth-best team, though still a decent club
gun to my head, I probably say:
Royals/Indians top 2 in some order, Tigers 3rd, White Sox 4th and Royals 5th?
sorry, Twins 5th
Willy
12:22
What do you think about the Mariners chances at the WC
august fagerstrom
12:22
it exists.
it exists for 14 other teams in the AL, too, though.
Outta my way, Gyorkass!
12:23
Consider the following hypothetical: Mike Trout suffers a catastrophic injury this year and it saps his baseball playing ability so much that he can only manage another five seasons (or whatever he needs to get to the 10 year HOF eligibility threshold) at straight replacement level play. Is his otherworldly start to his career enough to get him into the HOF?
august fagerstrom
12:23
if he's literally worth 0.0 WAR over the next five seasons, then no, I think he tragically misses out
12:24
if he plays 2 more full years, and is then replacement level for 3 seasons, putting him probably at 50ish WAR or so, then yeah, I think he gets in
or even if he can just manage, like, 6-7 WAR over the next five years somehow, just being a contributor in some way for several more seasons, I think he gets close. really would have a hard time seeing a guy who only contributed *at all* in 5 seasons making it, though
NutButters
12:25
Are the Yankees really going to patch up their middle relief on the hopes of Shreve returning to his early form, or the emergence of Lindgren? Any chance Fister could be had on a one year incentive laden contract to become the new Warren?
august fagerstrom
12:26
Fister's probably going to sign with the intention of being a starter.
Nova's probably the swingman right now, right? Could be an interesting option out of the bullpen, as any former starter is
12:27
Beyond that, the middle relief work might be sketchy, but between Shreve/Lindgren/Rumbelow/Mitchell/Pinder you hope you find something, and those guys only matter if the starter can't make it 6, for the most part
12:28
I think they'll be able to live with occasionally having to bridge the gap with one inning of those guys
bobthewalrus
12:30
What kind of return could the Os get if they wanted to trade Adam Jones?
august fagerstrom
12:30
well, a trade of Adam Jones in the present seems entirely unlikely, to begin with. the Orioles didn't sign Chris Davis to trade Adam Jones
12:31
so assuming this scenario begins next year, that leaves 2 expensive years of Jones at ages 31 and 32. the bat has been declining for four consecutive seasons, and the plate discipline seems to hint at a high potential bust rate when some of the power goes. Jones, to me, seems like a scary aging bet. I'm not sure the Orioles would be able to get a very substantial return
12:32
perhaps a flawed prospect or a couple interesting lower level guys
2-D
12:32
What do you think of the Dee Gordon extension?
august fagerstrom
12:33
I think it's fine. Gordon improved offensively and defensively last year, is in his prime, and extensions usually look team friendly when they happen
whether it actually keeps Gordon in Miami is anyone's guess, but the value seems in line
Cory S.
12:34
Do you get the feeling that even though the Tigers' added lots of depth to their BP, it will still be a glaring weakness? Depth Chart has them ranked 27th with a projected 1.8 WAR.
august fagerstrom
12:34
I actually kind of like the look of the pen. It's the rotation that I think could burn them
Bill
12:34
Central?: Indians, Tigers, Royals, Twins, White Sox?
august fagerstrom
12:35
I switched a couple teams around when I did this earlier, but this is close to what I had and also entirely reasonable. I don't think there's any arrangement that would look silly, really, aside from maybe a first-place Twins/last-place Royals argument
Kvn
12:35
Cespedes likely goes to ChiSox or Angels now, right?
august fagerstrom
12:35
Seem like the two most likely destinations, though I still wouldn't rule out Texas, St. Louis, or apparently even the Nationals yet
Guest
12:36
How good do you think Justin turner can be next season?
august fagerstrom
12:37
as good as he's been the last couple years, which is a 4+ WAR player when healthy, but I certainly wouldn't count on anything more than that
Lars
12:38
At the end of the season, which of Dipoto's moves do you think will look the best? The worst?
august fagerstrom
12:39
Aoki at 1/5 strikes me as particularly shrewd, and Iwakuma at 1/12 could pay major dividends, given innings
12:40
Not crazy over Cishek 2/10, and especially not crazy over their apparent insistence of using him in the 9th rather than Benoit, but roles can easily be changed, and that's the worst that two payments of $5M can do to a baseball team?
J
12:40
Doesn't it feel like pitchers are being highly prioritized this offseason?
august fagerstrom
12:41
yes. the amount of money given to mid-rotation innings-eaters is particularly surprising. it should've always been considered a possibility that Price and Greinke blew what we expected out of the water. the 5/80 baseline for the Leake's and Kennedy's of the world are the unexpected ones
Curtis
12:42
Knebel a good late flier for possible saves in MIL?
august fagerstrom
12:42
Blazek and Jeffress in the mix, too
K-Man
12:43
Who is the greatest living player?
august fagerstrom
12:43
Barry Bonds
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