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August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat -- 1/19/16
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august fagerstrom
1:09
I say the Twins 5th in the AL Central under the presumption that all 5 teams in the AL Central are playoff contenders, as well as the other 10 teams in the American League
Twins have some exciting spots and some not-so-exciting spots, just like the rest of their division rivals
Joe
1:10
When John Coppolella was asked about his opinion of the WAR stat during a twitter question session, he replied that it's a useful stat but overrates defense. Is that a common belief among GMs & front offices?
august fagerstrom
1:10
not sure, but he's certainly not the first to have that opinion
1:11
More often than "overrate" defense, the gripe you hear is that it places too much weight on defense, given our relative confidence in the ability to evaluate single-season defensive performances. Maybe those are the same things, but it feels like there's a distinction
1:12
Like, I don't think it's unreasonable to think a player can be worth 30 defensive runs a season, a la Simmons or Kiermaier. So in that sense, I don't totally agree with the notion that defense is "overrated." But if you don't take defensive metrics at face value, and therefore don't take WAR at face value due to the fact that it treats its confidence in evaluating offense and defense as equal, then I'd say that's a fair gripe
Arthur
1:12
Do you think it'd be wise for the Mets to trade any of their young pitching? If so, who and for what?
august fagerstrom
1:12
nope
1:13
if anyone, Wheeler, but that sure is selling low
Jay
1:13
August who is the better pitcher Tyson Ross or tanaka?
august fagerstrom
1:13
Tanaka, I guess
Derek
1:14
As a Phillies fan, I want Aaron Nola to become an ace. From what I read and see, he has three plus pitches with superb command. However, everyone pegs him as a #2 or high #3. What do you think he could add that would elevate him to Acehood?
august fagerstrom
1:15
same thing that elevates any #2 upside guy to acehood -- improved command, more movement, more velo. hard to see those things coming. with Nola, though, he's young, and he's already been effective, and the upside is there. you hear him pegged as #2 or a higher #3 because people want to be generally conservative when projecting out toward the future. he's got as good a chance to develop into an ace as most young guys with #2 labels being put on them
Raindog
1:15
Do the O's have anything to trade? They desperately need a corner OF and a SP, but what do they have to give?
august fagerstrom
1:17
I was thinking about this earlier. Just given the state of the Orioles roster at the beginning of the offseason, I think they made as much sense as any AL team to blow it up, but there's also not much to blow up. Machado isn't going anywhere, and Jones doesn't have massive trade value, and Gausman's not exactly the kind of piece you want to give up in a rebuild, either. they were in an interesting spot, and that's how you end up trying to stick around contention by resigning Chris Davis and Darren O'Day
which I think were fine moves. just a weird spot for their roster
Sirras
1:17
You need (for some strange reason) to have a pitcher paint your house by throwing a sponge against it. If they throw too hard, they'll break the wall. If they are inaccurate, it'll be patchy-looking. If they throw inconsistent speeds, it'll be patchy-looking as well. Who do you ask to paint your house?
august fagerstrom
1:17
Mark Buehrle is painting this house.
Mark Buehrle might literally paint a house during the 2016 baseball season, too
Jack Glasscock's Cup
1:18
Carlos Correa looks like he has the makings of a masher at the plate, with legitimate 35+ HR potential and good wheels. That's a potential MVP candidate. But have there been rumblings behind the scenes that he may just not have the range for SS? He looks like a future 3B once he fills out. Maybe within the next 3-4 years.
august fagerstrom
1:19
yeah, this has been the thought for a while. he looks fine for now, and it seems like guys who impress early end up sticking longer than what was expected before their debut. he probably won't be a SS forever, but it's not unreasonable to think he lasts beyond 3-4 years
Raindog
1:19
Fowler, if they can afford him, would make a ton of sense for an Orioles team that needs another OF and a leadoff man, yes?
august fagerstrom
1:19
it's another fit that makes some sense, yeah.
Bork
1:20
Brett Cecil continues to dominate this season. What kind of contract does he get next off season? 3/30 a starting point?
august fagerstrom
1:20
O'Day money seems reasonable
Morris
1:21
What kind of player will michael conforto be in his prime? Can you see him putting together a few 5 WAR seasons?
august fagerstrom
1:21
not sure he'll have the defense/baserunning numbers to go along with the bat to rack up that kind of consistent overall value, though my god did he grade well in left last year
there's certainly some sample size issues in 400 innings of left field, but I guess better for the numbers to have a plus sign in front of them than a negative
GN
1:21
Any idea if anyone else was truly in on Davis or what the next best offer was?
august fagerstrom
1:22
nope. all anyone ever heard for real was Baltimore
Cam Newton
1:22
When will someone get 100% hall of fame vote and who will it be?
august fagerstrom
1:22
Jeter challenges Griffey. if Jeter doesn't get it, it might never happen, and if it does, I'd guess it'd be someone we don't yet know about
Zonk
1:22
I wish I was GM of the Phillies right now. Because I am going to look like a genius when we are the beasts of the NL East in 2018+. Want to join me as an assistant?
august fagerstrom
1:23
Phillies future is shockingly bright, given what we all thought of that organization just a couple years ago
they appear to have done well in their rebuild
PS
1:24
If you were the Yankees, would you ever be tempted to try and stretch Dellin back out to a starter?
august fagerstrom
1:24
nah
he's immensely valuable where he is, and he throws 2 pitches. he's a reliever
Ernie Camacho
1:25
Yo August! Are the 2016 Steamer splits you drew from for your Tigers post this morning publicly available? I'd love to see how some of the Tribe platoon pieces are projected to split.
august fagerstrom
1:25
I got those from Jared Cross, who does the Steamer projections. they're not public yet, but they will be
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