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August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat -- 1/5/16
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Are the Marlins going to put Edwin into the rotation? If so, are they trying to tank?
august fagerstrom
my initial response to this was to make a not-funny joke about how the Marlins just learned about xFIP and think Edwin Jackson is due for a bounceback
because that's been Edwin Jackson's entire career
but now I'm looking at his player page and I see that his peripherals tanked last year and he actually had a 3.07 ERA
granted, it was out of the pen, so a 3.07 ERA and 3.82 FIP isn't exactly dominant. but it's a major leaguer
he'll be in the pen, for sure, and I guess they're hoping to build on that with a strikeout boost
Starlin Castro or Dustin Pedroia..who has the better next two seasons?
august fagerstrom
In 2014/2015, Scott Kazmir looks like he's had a pretty significant first-half/second-half split, where his performance has dropped off considerably in the second half. Is there any way to know whether this kind of split is just random, or if it signifies a durability issue that will get worse with age?
august fagerstrom
no real way to know with any significance in one specific case like that, but given Kazmir's history, I don't think it would be too irresponsible to put two and two together there
Any chance the Astros do something crazy like sign Upton/Cepedes and deal Gomez? And move Springer to CF?
august fagerstrom
seems way more likely they'd just sign Chris Davis
I personally think the Phillies are going to be a freight train. Good TV money, good stadium, good farm system, all the dead money goes away after this year, and they are committed to rebuilding. Am I right in thinking they could dominate the East in 2018+?
august fagerstrom
yeah, you are
Phillies are gonna be really good really soon, methinks
Orioles are deluding themselves, no? They want to contend, but don't quite have all the pieces and refuse to go all the way but at the same time refuse to rebuild.
august fagerstrom
yeah, I considered bringing them up earlier when I was asked about an AL team that should rebuild. if they go get Davis back though you can squint and see a .500 team which is really all most teams are shooting for nowadays I think, so I can see it from their side
at the same time, that team probably reminds me of the Reds/Brewers from a couple years ago more than any other
Loved your piece on Kazmir, Dodgers and Health. Why do you think the White Sox are always at the very bottom in terms of pitchers' injuries ? And by a pretty large margin when we look back at the 15 years back.
august fagerstrom
no idea. it's truly one of the great mysteries of the game, and it gives the White Sox a pretty sizable competitive advantage
part of me thinks that information should have to be shared with the rest of the league though. if every team were able to prevent injuries like the White Sox, it would be better for the fans, the teams, the owners, the players...
Which player were you most disappointed in (all time) - where you were hoping/expecting them to be great and they turned out meh (or worse)?
august fagerstrom
this is a weird name to come to mind because I probably haven't thought about this guy in a decade but I remember being bummed that Alex Cintron never built on his rookie year
the real answer though is Grady Sizemore
he was a sure-fire first-ballot HoFer after his first 4/5 years in the league
closest thing we had to Trout
and then nothing
couple tweets I sent out a few months ago:
Four-year peaks:Grady Sizemore: 25.8 WAR Willie Stargell 25.6 Pete Rose 25.4 Tony Gwynn 25.4 Brooks Robinson 25.3 :(
In Grady Sizemore's first 5 MLB seasons he had 28.3 WAR and seven years later he's at 28.9
Do you crap your diaper
august fagerstrom
been a while
How many teams do you think would rather have the "Free Agent Team" from your post today than their current team?
august fagerstrom
the teams that are really bad wouldn't take it because they're really bad for a reason, right?
the tanking teams don't want a .500 team
and then, while it's a good team, it isn't a real contender
so the real contenders wouldn't want it
maybe like the A's or Rays or Padres or something but they wouldn't have the payroll. don't know if we're considering that or not. in fact almost nobody would want that payroll, and if they did want the payroll, they'd want a better roster