August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat -- 10/18/16
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august fagerstrom
12:02
hello!
I now have bagels, so I am ready to begin the chat
Bork
12:02
Hello, friend!
august fagerstrom
12:02
hello, Bork!
Bork
12:03
Is Bauer done for the off-season? That finger looked naaaaaaaaasty.
august fagerstrom
12:04
well, if the Indians advance, they wouldn't *need* Bauer until Game 3 of the World Series, which is on October 28
That's 10 days from now
Gut tells me it'd have sealed up enough by then to go?
But, yeah
The way that finger looked is not what you want
Wazzup
12:05
Dave mentioned the other day about Front Offices having advanced stats that we don't have access to yet. Like for example, HITF/X that was made public a few years back. Is that true? We see so many of these saber metrics these days and some are very very weird/creative. Can you think of any type of saber metric/advanced stat we don't know of yet? Or even "create" one?
august fagerstrom
12:05
Yeah, I'm sure teams have all sorts of proprietary measures, particularly with things like fielding
12:06
But I'd bet most teams have their own WAR/FIP models that, while they may not look too different from what's in the public sphere, have little tweaks based on what the organization values
Otis Redding
12:06
Do the Blue Jays have any chance of making the comeback?
august fagerstrom
12:07
Sure! Our playoff odds page has them at 7%, and the 3-0 comeback has happened before (albeit, once in 35 tries)
So, somewhere between a 3-7% chance
Seems about right
Slew
12:07
Would you start Kluber on short rest? The history isn't good, and if they do get to game 7 (Tito's stated reason) he'd be doing it again. Why not sacrifice Clevinger and Meritt to the 'everyone needs rest gods, punt game 4, and go after 5 fully rested?
august fagerstrom
12:08
I don't think there's another option, really. Kluber on short rest is still probably their best option in this series, so you've gotta get that guy on the mound twice is needed
Jesse
12:09
What type of production do you see from Swanson in 2017?
august fagerstrom
12:09
Similar to this year, probably. League-average or slightly better bat, plus baserunning and defensive value, 3-4 WAR player
Minty
12:10
I don't want to extrapolate SSS, so what do you expect from Benintendi next year?
august fagerstrom
12:10
The same things I just said for Swanson but with a better bat, so more like a 4-5 WAR player
Benjamin Dover
12:10
Is baseball ever going to see mic'd up umpires explain certain calls/decisions? From what I've been reading, no one at the game last night could see the blood.
august fagerstrom
12:11
The ump was mic'd up last night and told Bauer as soon as he got to the mound that it was too much blood
Unless I'm misunderstanding the question
Michael
12:11
What would be your solution to some of the Angels large holes? Wait for Jahmai Jones for left field? Go ofter someone like Justin Turner for 2B/3B?
august fagerstrom
12:11
Honestly? I would trade Mike Trout
Which is much easier said than done when you aren't the one who runs the team that *has* Mike Trout
But I have a really hard time seeing any option that doesn't result in "Mike Trout leaves in free agency and we have nothing to show for it"
Greg
12:12
If Andrew Miller was a free agent would he be worth #2 starter money, say 3 years 60m, if only for postseason value?
august fagerstrom
12:12
Maybe a bit high on the AAV but honestly don't think that's too far off
12:13
It's funny, his contract looked big for a reliever at the time, and now at $9M per, it looks like an absolute bargain
Hannah Hochevar
12:13
For real, though: how many innings can Andrew Miller pitch this post-season? Seems like it's 'all of them.'
august fagerstrom
12:13
They're not gonna start using him any differently than they have been
12:14
So, like, 1.5 innings per game, on average
Usage might even ramp up as they get closer to finish line
Youngman
12:15
Do you agree with Keith Law's assessment on Tim Tebow?
august fagerstrom
12:15
I mean, I'm not a scout, so I have no idea
But, yeah, he's probably not very good
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