August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat -- 11/1/16
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august fagerstrom
12:43
not if those minor leagues don't throw major league curveballs, which they probably don't, and which a pitching machine could
TengoPreguntas
12:43
Are you saying baez is a 110 wRC+ as things stand now? Or is that factoring in some improvement in approach as he progresses?
august fagerstrom
12:43
no, I was setting that as the line for what I could see his potential ceiling being
he's a 90ish wRC+ guy now
Dock Ellis
12:44
My rebuttal to your Baez answer is that the point isn't instinctual. It's intellectual. There's literally 0% chance he's throwing a fastball middle middle. He's better off closing his eyes when the pitcher is in his windup so he won't let his instincts make him swing.
august fagerstrom
12:44
0% chance he's *trying* to throw a fastball middle-middle
trying and doing are two entirely different things, particularly with something as difficult as pitching
pitchers make mistakes. more importantly, hitters make their living off pitchers making mistakes
Mike
12:44
Say you can build a team with one elite skill and two average ones (hitting, defense, pitching). Which elite skill do you think would get you the most wins?
august fagerstrom
12:44
hitting
CamdenWarehouse
12:45
Sooner or later Miller has to have a dud, right?
august fagerstrom
12:45
he did give up a homer to Fowler
botchatheny
12:45
i dont know nothin' but i think you are the first person i've read who said they weren't a fan of maddon as a tactician.
august fagerstrom
12:45
really? i feel like i've heard that a dozen times in the last week alone
Mike
12:45
I agree that they'd be willing to pitch 40 pitches tonight and then get the ball again tomorrow, but how much effectiveness does a pitcher lose on day two of a back to back with hard usage like that?
august fagerstrom
12:46
certainly some, but Miller at 80% is probably still the Indians' best pitcher
Dock Ellis
12:46
If I were Baez, in a 0-2 count, I think I'd rather take the gamble that it won't be a fastball middle middle. I haven't been able to look at the graphs you posted, but were there any pitches that were hittable in an 0-2 count?
august fagerstrom
12:47
not sure, honestly. i think the point that's being made, though, isn't specific to 0-2, it's just his bad swings in general. like, of course he isn't trying to swing at pitches half a foot in front of the plate or four feet high, ever. but his quick reactions can be both a blessing and a curese
Mike D
12:47
Do the Cubs have the lineup advantage with the DH? Basically Schwarber is replacing the pitcher for the Cubs whereas the Indians are replacing the pitcher with a defensive sub over Santana in LF.
august fagerstrom
12:48
Yeah, for sure
Don't think that outweighs home field advantage for Cleveland thouh
Matt Damon
12:48
MATT. DAMON.
Precious Roy
12:48
Did the curveball-averse Cubs unwittingly run into the precisely wrong club for them to face in a 7-game series? I can't think of another club whose rotation and bullpen would pose them a greater threat. Bonus question: How would the Cubs fare against their own pitching?
august fagerstrom
12:49
It seems like the Indians ran into a trio of teams whose weaknesses aligned nicely with their ability to throw effective breaking balls, but again, it comes back to the Indians pitcher executing those breaking balls
Erik
12:49
Where do short-rest Lackey and Lester rank among Maddon's bullpen options?
august fagerstrom
12:50
Behind Chapman (obviously), Edwards, Montgomery. Ahead of Wood, and maybe Grimm. Rondon and Strop are total wild cards.
Daniel
12:50
Are defensive metrics based on chances? I ask because it seems like Bryant, and in the past, Zobrist, got a lot of credit for being good at multiple positions - But might there weaknesses show if they played those positions more often?
august fagerstrom
12:51
I'm not sure I follow, re: getting extra credit for multiple positions. That isn't the case
Slew
12:51
What's Napoli worth? (According to WAR, nosomuch)
august fagerstrom
12:53
I'd say slightly more than his given WAR this year, for two reasons. One, I'd be willing to bet that, just based on his previous years' numbers at 1B, that he's not actually as poor of a defender as 2016 UZR makes him out to be. And two, he's a leader in the clubhouse, and I am of the belief that that has tangible, though unquantifiable value. That being said, neither of those things change the calculus too much for me. Our WAR had him as a 1.0-win player, I'd maybe have him closer to 2.0
He's the classic guy who the casual fan overvalues because big dingers and how much teammates talk him up
Erik
12:54
If the Indians win, we should expect copycat teams trying to find and utilize their own Andrew Miller. If the Cubs win, we should expect teams to what? Build and all-around excellent baseball team without any real weaknesses?
august fagerstrom
12:55
Maybe increased emphasis on things like sport psychology? I know the Cubs have done a lot of work in that field, and all the little things they do outside the lines (little nuances in and around the stadium/clubhouse to make everything more efficient)
Maybe increased likelihood to buy into the full-scale rebuild
Perhaps greater emphasis on subtle shifts in defensive positioning and/or defensive versatility rather than full overshifts
Mike
12:56
If its tied, best case scenario for the Indians is probably to have Miller relieve Tomlin and pitch to the top of the order, and then after Schwarber bring in Shaw with that breaking ball to pitch to Contreras, Baez, RF, and Russell, right?
august fagerstrom
12:56
Perhaps, but not if that means taking Miller out of the game before you have to
12:57
If Miller throws two perfect innings with, like, 23 pitches, you send him out for a third
weezy
12:57
How much work are non-WS teams doing right now, and what is the nature of the work?
august fagerstrom
12:57
Tons, and prepping for the winter meetings
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