August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat -- 3/1/16
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jtt
12:57
Im rooting for the tigers but a weird part of me wants to root for the royals when dave posts his inevitable "defend the projections" post. Do I have psychological issues?
august fagerstrom
12:57
We've questioned the projections all winter
12:58
You've got to look at it from both sides
Otherwise you won't learn anything
I for one am rooting for the Royals again too. The more they do this, the better we can understand where we are
Sean
12:58
Are you buying the Marlins being projected for more wins than AZ?
august fagerstrom
12:58
nope
NutButters
12:59
Based on the overinflation Boston seems to get amongst projections over the last few years, is it fair to say that their 88 wins and the best odds of making the WS roughly equate to 81 wins and a feasible chance at the WC? I'm really starting to see the "FenGraphs" trend, and it's perplexing to me.
august fagerstrom
12:59
there's no historical precedent for teams under/overperforming their projections for multiple years, so, no
guest guest guest
1:00
best looking swing you've ever seen? mine is cano's
august fagerstrom
1:00
cliche but Junior
when I mentioned Manny for "coolest" earlier, too, what made it so cool to me is how pretty and easy it looked
senpaisanto
1:01
Ruby
1:01
Biggest positional hole on a contender? Indians OF, Astros 1B, Royals 2B, Giants LF, Angels LF seem like top candidates.
august fagerstrom
1:01
Royals entire rotation
Matt
1:01
Re team projections: Are they just composites of the individual players comprising the depth charts? Or is there any kind of "schedule simulation" going on at all in the recipe? I'd think that a strong team in a weak division would get a 4-5 win boost from the extra opportunities to beat up on the bad teams they play more often.
august fagerstrom
1:02
I *believe* the WAR projection is just a sum and the standings are a schedule simulation
Don't quote me on that though
Bork
1:02
Who breaks camp as the Jays 5th starter?
august fagerstrom
1:02
Chavez I'd imagine
Bad Hermit
1:02
Hate to keep bringing this up, but looking at past season's playoff odds still doesn't work for me. It produces an error. I know you don't deal with the back-end, it just happens to be your chat day.
august fagerstrom
1:03
I'll let Appelman know
MikeD
1:03
Thanks for chatting August! Thoughts on Raisel Iglesias? Depending on where you look he seems like one of the more polarizing guys this spring, some have him verging on top-25 while others have him barely in top-75.
august fagerstrom
1:03
I love him. The stuff is nasty. He's probably my favorite under-the-radar breakout guy this year
1:04
Top-25 seems insane though
Ol Sea Capn
1:04
Percentage chance that Ketel Marte is just as good as Ian Desmond but at reduced cost and no media spotlight?
august fagerstrom
1:04
>50%
Ben
1:04
Swisher's been really bad the past two years, but he's also had knee injuries. With him supposedly being healthy, can Braves expect anything close to the .240avg/.340obp with 20hr he put up in 2013?
august fagerstrom
1:05
Swish is toast
Don Von Handburger
1:05
What is the chance that Syndergaard is the best of the Mets pitchers over the next 2 years? 15%?
august fagerstrom
1:05
33% deGrom, 32% Harvey, 31% Syndergaaard, 4% other
kevinthecomic
1:06
Coolest Swing (past): Garth Iorg. Seriously, look it up!
You Better You Better You Betts
1:06
Does Mookie get to 20-20 this year? Hit a really nice home run yesterday(albeit against a college pitcher), but I like his potential power.
august fagerstrom
1:06
yeah, he's as good a 20-20 bet as anyone
Connor
1:06
Given how terrible the Tribe's outfield options are, could you see them moving a pitcher for someone like JBJ/Soler? What would such a deal look like?
august fagerstrom
1:07
Would've happened by now if that would've happened
Bork
1:07
Do you believe Kevin Pillar can maintain his 5 WAR production? Or better yet, improve his hitting and get even better?
august fagerstrom
1:07
I'd confidently bet against that
The Other Sox
1:07
Is there a team everyone expects to contend that you are particularly down on?
august fagerstrom
1:07
the Giants
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