August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat -- 5/24/16
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august fagerstrom
12:24
With limited/no texting between the invitation to said lunch and the lunch itself
Pablo
12:24
Pomeranz killed it again last night. Who's a good comp for him? How does he rank compared to someone like Gausman or Velasquez?
august fagerstrom
12:24
I like the Rich Hill comp that Eno made
Crispy Coco
12:26
Any idea who may be the 1st OF callup for the Indians, Bradley Zimmer or Clint Frazier?
august fagerstrom
12:26
Barring an unforeseen circumstance, Zimmer will be the first one up
Erik
12:27
Will JP Crawford be a better player 6-8 years from now based on the things he will learn in the next few months in AAA? Or could he learn those things in the majors without hurting his future?
august fagerstrom
12:27
Probably not significantly. The point of teams delaying a top prospect's clock is far less about that, though, and far more about that top prospect's age-28 season being way more valuable than his age-22 season
chris
12:27
Catch wainos last 2 starts? Velocity seems up. Not expecting star numbers, but is a 3.5 era and 1.2 whip reasonable?
august fagerstrom
12:28
He says he's ironed out his mechanics, and video confirms a noticeable change. Command of the fastball's been better than it's been all year. Not ready to say an ace is back (not sure an ace is ever coming back), but I'm certainly more encouraged than I was a couple week ago
Slothrop
12:29
If by the end of it all Syndergaard's career was exactly as good as Dwight Gooden's statistically would that be a disappointment or success?
august fagerstrom
12:29
Dwight Gooden finished his career with 56 WAR
Borderline Hall of Famer. Mets would take that
Colin
12:30
Pujols's BAPIP is settling in at ~.215 for the 2nd straight season. How is that possible? FWIW Steamer/ZIPS project ~.250 but that seems like a total long shot at this point. Has he become a true three-outcome hitter?
august fagerstrom
12:30
Extremely easy to defend him + horrific foot speed + high percentage of balls in play going toward home runs
.215 is still a bit unlikely, but it's probably safe to assume his true-talent BABIP is sub-.250, which is still pretty rare
Raindog
12:31
Russell Martin .008 ISO, 33 K% - he must be seriously hurt, right?
august fagerstrom
12:31
Hurt or just broken. This is well past the point of "guys get to their level eventually"
Mike
12:32
Are the Angels still a dumpster fire, or are they a .500 team ros?
august fagerstrom
12:32
I do not think they are a .500 team the rest of the way
The other Kyle
12:33
Does Daniel Hudson get a crack at closing this year? Next year?
august fagerstrom
12:33
Might be soon if Ziegler doesn't get the walks under control
Raindog
12:34
Leonys Martin has had a big drop in GB% and substantial gains in Pull% and Hard%. So do we think his newfound power is actually a result of new approach/swing and not just early season luck?
august fagerstrom
12:34
Those are the signs you'd want to look for, yeah. Also, I believe a Jeff Sullivan-Leonys Martin article is coming later today, so maybe you'll get an even more detailed answer!
Replacement Bork
12:34
Hi friend!
august fagerstrom
12:34
:(
BakedBean
12:34
Why do sports media keep pointing to the Shelby Miller trade as a precedent for trading other young SPs? Surely, GMs are smart enough to realize that this was an overpay and not a precedent to set or exceed for future trades, right?
august fagerstrom
12:35
Yeah, Shelby Miller being bad really shouldn't shift the perception of that trade too much. It wouldn't been a complete disaster even if Shelby Miller was Shelby Miller
would've been*
GERB
12:37
Debate I've been having with a friend; If a theoretical player exclusively hit home runs and struck out, how often would he have to homer to get a full time DH job? 1 in 10?
august fagerstrom
12:37
well that's like a 21 wRC+, so, no, that won't cut it
12:39
9-for-50 with 9 homers is like a 136 wRC+. The 41 strikeouts would likely depreciate his value a bit as those are all completely empty plate appearances, and it seems safe to assume he's got poor footspeed as well. Even with those things considered, I think a 136 wRC+ would do it, with some room to spare
So that's 108 homers over a 600 PA pace with no other production
All it takes!
Hope I did my math right!
Kylo Ren
12:39
Sorry, really stupid question about the new awesome rolling graphs feature: Each data point is the average/summation of that X-game period, correct? It's a summation of previous data, not in isolation, correct?
august fagerstrom
12:40
Yes
TJ
12:40
Talk me off the ledge about Carson Smith, the Red Sox bullpen, and the Red Sox by extension.
august fagerstrom
12:41
the Red Sox bullpen still has Craig Kimbrel, Koji Uehara, a better-looking Junichi Tazawa and suddenly pretty awesome Robbie Ross. AKA more than most bullpens. and the Red Sox as a team have the most wins in the American League, the best offense to date in baseball, and the best rest-of-season projection in the AL
the Carson Smith thing makes them... a win? worse the rest of the way? less?
Snowflake
12:42
Mark Reynolds has accumulated 10.2 WAR in the 10 years he's been in the majors. Mike Trout accumulated 10.3 WAR in his first full year in the majors
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