August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat -- 5/31/16
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august fagerstrom
11:51
Hello! I feel like crap. This one probably won't go for more than an hour. Nevertheless, we chat!
11:52
Music: Talking Heads - Talking Heads: 77
Going to put some food in me before we start. Be back in 10
Bork
12:01
Hello, friend!
august fagerstrom
12:02
Hi, Bork! Your presence was sorely missed in last week's chat. Glad we can get off on the right foot this time.
Zonk
12:02
I was critical of the Indians for their patchwork approach to filling the OF. Apparently I was wrong! Davis-Byrd-Ramirez-Chisenhall on pace for 12 WAR! The Indians are smarter than me, aren't they?
august fagerstrom
12:03
They've been pretty fortunate with the play of Davis and Byrd. It's still not a good outfield, but it hasn't been the disaster is could have (should have?) been
Guest
12:03
So how often do you get the Conan "Fagerstrom!" treatment? http://fagerstrom.ytmnd.com/
august fagerstrom
12:04
Nearly every chat.
Bork
12:04
Does Marco Estrada have the best changeup in the AL? In the whole league?
august fagerstrom
12:05
Almost impossible to declare individual pitches the "best" in a vacuum because they function as part of an entire repertoire, but Estrada's changeup works very well with his fastball, and its extremely unique nature make it stick out even more
Q-Ball
12:05
Kyle Hendricks rankings among all NL Starting pitchers: WAR-10th, FIP-8th, xFIP-10th. Do you believe he is THAT good? Like top-10 good? Or just sneaky-good?
august fagerstrom
12:06
He's not a top-10 pitcher, but he's definitely sneaky-good. He reminds me of Jose Quintana from a years ago, maybe not so much in the way they pitch, but in the difference between perception vs. reality
I think Quintana is now viewed as an ace by many, but it wasn't always that way. Hendricks is legit.
Erik
12:06
Aaron Nola is one of only two pitchers (along with Noah Syndergaard) to be in the top 10 of both K%-BB% and GB%. Is he a top ten pitcher? Has he done enough to join the small group of pitchers who are undisputably aces?
august fagerstrom
12:07
He sure has pitched like one. Not ready to say he *is* one yet, just because others have done it for longer
He's got the makings of an ace though
Matt
12:07
What are the odds Julio Teheran us traded? Will it exceed the return they got for Miller? Teheran is better, cheaper, and signed longer than Shelby.
august fagerstrom
12:07
High. No.
The return for Miller is an exception. Unfair to compare any other return to that one, because the Braves absolutely fleeced the Diamondbacks
Tom
12:09
Who is Rich Hill traded to? Will that end up being the best signing of the off season?
august fagerstrom
12:09
The White Sox are probably the most obvious fit as a contender in need of another arm, though it sounds like Shields might have legs
Pirates? Giants? He'll be going somewhere
And yeah, it might already be the best signing of the offseason
Zonk
12:09
Who is the genuine coolest MLB player in your opinion that you have interviewed or spent time with?
august fagerstrom
12:11
Chris Archer. Went to a little league park in Cleveland last year to interview him for one of those camps that get put on for underprivileged kids. The fact that he went out of his way to give back to a city that he doesn't even call his own was cool enough (especially because it was his initiative, not the league's or the Rays'). We did the interview for 15-20 minutes or so, then he sat on the bench with me for another 20 minutes and we just talked about books and writing. He's a really thoughtful, genuine dude
Andrew
12:12
Any chance Neil Walker's performance as an RHB this year is more than a SSS fluke? Chipper improved his weak side over time, but then again Neil Walker isn't Chipper...
august fagerstrom
12:13
He's nearly doubled his career home run total vs. LHP in 43 plate appearances!
Wow
That's something. I'd have to see the homers, but that seems like something. That being said, you still regress heavily
A sub-90 wRC+ over 750 plate appearances still means a lot more than the most recent 43
12:14
But maybe he's closer to a league-average hitter from the right-hand side now?
Erik
12:14
The average career WAR of a #1 overall pick in the draft is about 20. In other words, Raul Ibanez or Joe Blanton. Is it right for me as a Phillies fan to not be excited about drafting Raul Ibanez or Joe Blanton? On a similar note, doesn't that make tanking seem a lot less worthwhile? Nobody would tank for Joe Blanton.
august fagerstrom
12:14
Baseball players fail a lot.
If you think the average career WAR of the #1 pick isn't exciting, don't look at #2
12:15
There's a huge dropoff. The #1 pick is immensely valuable. You don't get excited over the median -- tons of players do nothing, which in retrospect makes Raul Ibanez's career pretty amazing -- you get excited over the upside
Nathan
12:16
I don't understand what just happened with the Joey Gallo (non-)experiment. Why didn't they play him? Did he sleep with someone's sister or something?
august fagerstrom
12:16
Wasn't it the same thing as Urias? I don't think his stay was intended to be a prolonged oe
one*
Charlie
12:16
Thoughts on Brantley's shoulder - can he return to being the Brantley of old this year?
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