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August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat -- 8/30/16
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john
12:24
Can Ryon Healy be a consistent 125~ wRC+ dude? Maybe in the .280/.330/.480 model? Move him off 3B and that's a pretty awesome player.
august fagerstrom
12:24
I'd take the extreme under on that
Fire Kevin Cash
12:25
Second-half Odorizzi sports an 1.59 ERA, tied with Hamels for the AL lead, but an xFIP of 4.58 (4.42 on the season). He's looked sharp, but should we expect him to come crashing down?
august fagerstrom
12:25
Well Odorizzi's always been an xFIP outperformer because of his extreme fly ball tendencies
But, no, he hasn't been *that* good
Dylan
12:27
Besides Hamilton's speed and Stanton's power, what do you think are some 80-grade tools in the MLB right now?
august fagerstrom
12:27
A lot of what Clayton Kershaw does?
Command? Curveball? Slider?
Chapman's fastball, Kiermaier's field
JT
12:28
Reading through your recent post on increased breaking ball usage. Do you think this is something that will be sustainable, or is it more of an element of surprise type deal that will be adjusted to?
august fagerstrom
12:28
Like Callaway said in that piece, with a pitch as good as Kluber's curve (or Hill's, or Fernandez's, or Tanaka's splitter, etc.) increased usage shouldn't suddenly turn the pitch ordinary
12:29
Those are elite-level pitches. I think the usage would have to be crazy-high before you'd start seeing diminishing returns
I see little reason why guys with pitches like that couldn't/shouldn't throw them 40%+ of the time and be fine
12:30
I asked Callaway, hypothetically, what a cutter/curve-exclusive version of Kluber might look like. Essentially, if he pitched exactly the way he would if he were a reliever. Callaway smiled and said, "Who knows, maybe he'll be that guy when he's 35, 36?"
jon
12:31
Cubs BABIP Suppression update: Cubs .256 BABIP allowed, .297 league average. 86 BABIP+. They need to run about a .277 allowed over the remaining month to take the record. Concurrently, the Dodgers have gone from running a .267 at the time of your article to a .285. The Cubs have gone from a .250 to a .256.
august fagerstrom
12:31
Yeah, Cubs sure look like they're gonna set the record.
An all-time record!
Pretty amazing.
Slew
12:32
The Indians aren't going to choke the division away, are they?
august fagerstrom
12:32
Got about a 1-in-10 chance of doing so, according to math
Dock Ellis
12:32
So I just moved to Denver. Do you know how much of a Coors Field effect there will be with my disc golf game?
august fagerstrom
12:33
Wait, actually this is fascinating. Would hyzers suffer more extreme effects the way curveballs do because of their break?
TJ
12:34
Donaldson has been murderdeathkilling baseballs recently. Any shakeups in your AL MVP ballot?
august fagerstrom
12:34
I think that when he wins the MVP again over Trout it'll make me a little sad but I certainly won't be able to argue with the choice, just like last year.
Argue with convinction, at least.
Kristen
12:34
Thoughts on Carlos Gomez being 1 for 19 with the Rangers? Puzzled by his addy as I don't know what he brings to the table that incumbent LF'ers DeShields/Rua/Profar didn't.
august fagerstrom
12:34
Upside
He's not very good, though.
another bad dynasty manager
12:35
So where do the Orioles go from here? With Tillman on the sideline indefinitely, shouldn't they concede this season is lost? And if they're smart enough to face that reality, shouldn't they shut down Dylan Bundy (or at least move him back to the bullpen) for the rest of the year? Why risk another injury to him when the odds of making the playoffs get lower with each loss?
august fagerstrom
12:35
They're currently the second Wild Card team with 31 games remaining. Go ahead and try selling your team that the season is lost.
Nelson
12:36
Roto question- start Hill in Coors tonight?
august fagerstrom
12:36
I have like 1/14th the necessary information required to answer this question with any amount of confidence
Andrew
12:36
Is Michael Conforto still likely to turn into a foundational offensive piece for the Mets? Or is his trajectory significantly worse after this lost year?
august fagerstrom
12:37
Michael Conforto is still a very good baseball player who is very young and whose career is far from over. He looks less good than a year ago but still could be very good in the future
Zach
12:38
I'm not entirely sure if he'll be eligible, but I feel like Josh Bell should go into next year as a pretty strong NL ROY contender, right?
august fagerstrom
12:38
He *should* retain his rookie eligibility
And, yeah, he'll likely be in the mix, though without defensive value he'll, of course, really have to hit
natsfan
12:38
How would you rank Cole Hamels? Top 3 pitcher in AL?
august fagerstrom
12:38
Results-wise this season or true-talent wise?
12:39
Either way, outside the top 10, I think.
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