August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat -- 8/9/16
powered byJotCast
august fagerstrom
1:04
that was fun
Matt
1:04
So last night I thought up and started playing with the concept of building an "environmental" model for RBI/R for fantasy. Using daily data, took each player's avg spot in the lineup. Then for R, I went through and did some expectation formula of hitter's OBP (adjusted with SB to try to mimmick "scoring position") along with the combined AVG of all batters on the same team with an AVG order position within 2 of said initial hitter. Similar but opposite for RBI. Thoughts on the concept?
august fagerstrom
1:05
I've done something similar like this for fantasy projections. Ended up taking too much of my time and I just went with whatever ZiPS projected
Like the idea though!
Ryan
1:05
Are you buying the Pirates line that they like Drew Hutchison? Do you think he turns into anything?
august fagerstrom
1:05
I do buy it. I do not buy that the overarching goal of that trade was not a salary dump.
Dallas
1:05
Javy Baez has the hardest/quickest tag I've ever seen; it's the only time I've every noticed this in baseball. Is there anybody current or past that has been like this?
august fagerstrom
1:06
no idea but now I'm watching!
also writing this down for an offseason post idea so thanks
Toki
1:06
Seriously Machado isn't the #1 SS in baseball!?!?!?!?!?!?
august fagerstrom
1:07
Machado hasn't played SS in two months and has played 91% of his career innings at not-shortstop
People get so worked up about this every time the "best SS" question is brought up
Do you stretch enough?
1:07
Stetching is important.
august fagerstrom
1:07
I stretch rigorously before any sporting event. Maybe not enough on a daily basis, though?
Andrew
1:07
Who will be the best SS named Crawford by 2019?
august fagerstrom
1:08
MANNY MACHADO!!!!1!!1!!111one11!!!!1!
John
1:08
Buhner was awesome, and not just because he could vomit on command.
august fagerstrom
1:08
oh?!
did I just learn something new about Jay Buhner
Jeff in T.O.
1:08
No love for Xander in your list of best SS?
august fagerstrom
1:09
I don't think he's on the same level as Lindor/Correa/Seager/Crawford
Great player, probably the next guy on the list, but he's not an elite glove or an elite bat
Lindor and Crawford are elite gloves with similar bats. Correa and Seager are elite bats with similar-ish gloves. Bogaerts is just good and good, which makes him a great overall player
Steve
1:09
O/U 10 WAR rest of McCutchen's career?
august fagerstrom
1:10
way over?
Bill
1:10
I thought the two pieces on Kepler were interesting last week. Could Kepler's pitch recognition ability account for any of his unexpected power, or does the batted ball/expected power profile (both articles from last week on Kepler) mean that despite advanced pitch recognition he is still not making the type of contact that would lead you to expect more than 15 or so homers in a season. Where do you see his power/average falling
august fagerstrom
1:11
I could see elite pitch recognition as something that leads to a player outperforming what scouts perceived to be his true raw/game power because it would lead to more consistently barreling the ball
Writing about Kepler reminded me a lot of Kyle Seager
j6takish
1:11
Carsons disinterest in baseball while being employed by a baseball related website is a running gag amongst all the other writers. How do you all feel about his savant like ability to identify under the radar guys?
august fagerstrom
1:12
I think it shows there's merit to "scouting the stat line"
Outta my way, Gyorkass
1:13
I had a few dislocations too. Shoulda mentioned it. They're rare, but they happen if I jerk that shoulder really hard too quickly. In all honesty, I probably need surgery again :(
august fagerstrom
1:13
gahhhhh this is not what I wanna hear!
but thanks for sharing
Josh
1:15
FWIW, actual WAR per 600 PA: Seager 6.7, Lindor 6.0, Correa 4.6
august fagerstrom
1:15
FWIW!
John
1:15
How many games does a team of Good Clubhouse Guys (Aviles, Francouer, etc.) win in a season?
august fagerstrom
1:16
well see this is an interesting thought
when they're all good clubhouse guys, are there diminishing returns on the value of the good clubhouse tool?
isn't the value of a good clubhouse guy being there for young guys/guys who need straightened out, etc.?
1:17
in other words, they're a stabilizing force. but what if no one needs stabilizing?
Connecting...