JotCast | August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat -- 9/20/16

August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat -- 9/20/16

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august fagerstrom

12:34

if the White Sox injury prevention guys can just join forces with the Mets pitcher development guys...

Johnny

12:35

How much MVP consideration could you see Freddie Freeman getting?

august fagerstrom

12:35

about none

Eric

12:36

Why is Nick Markakis viewed so bad by so many fangraphs folks?

august fagerstrom

12:36

is he? I think he's just viewed as what he is: an average player, and nothing more

12:37

he's a league-average hitter who doesn't run or play great defense. how should he be viewed?

James

12:37

What are your thoughts on Patrick Weigel and Max Povse, starters?

august fagerstrom

12:37

I swear you guys make up these names to screw with me

12:38

(Eric Longenhagen is the prospect guy, if these are real major league prospects. I have no thoughts on them)

Blaine

12:38

Even tho Kemp has 30+ HR he's still pretty worthless right?

august fagerstrom

12:38

Pretty much, yeah. He's too bad in the field to be worth anything to a National League team, and he's not a good enough hitter to be worth anything to an American League team as a DH

Jim Lonborg

12:39

Has there been work on whether starters going deep into games has a measurable impact on bullpen effectiveness? (I'll admit I'm trying to make a saber-friendly CY argument for Porcello.)

august fagerstrom

12:39

I'm honestly not sure, but it's funny you mention that because I was thinking the same thing last night.

12:40

Although my line of thinking was talking myself into giving him some credit for his pitching wins (gasp!) by sticking around long enough in games for his offense to score him runs

CamdenWarehouse

12:40

The league's slugging % is the same as 2009. 2007 was higher.

august fagerstrom

12:40

Slugging% isn't a measure of power, though

Johnny

12:41

You realize 19 players in the NL received MVP votes in 2015, over 20 in the AL. Freeman is the 3rd best position player in the NL this year. Not saying he should win, but should get plenty of votes.

august fagerstrom

12:41

I take "consideration" to mean "first-place consideration"

Khan

12:42

Nick Markakis has been really good over the last 2 months or so.

august fagerstrom

12:42

Guess we can throw out the past seven and a half years then

Joe W

12:43

On the playoff odds page, could you explain why the Astros are expected to win a tenth of a game more than the Mariners, yet have a tenth of percentage point less than the Mariners of making the playoffs?

august fagerstrom

12:44

I can not, though I'm guessing it's got something to do with the remaining schedules

Youngman

12:44

At what point does FIP not mean as much for a pitcher? Like for example Julio Teheran? He's out-performed it his whole career, yet he takes heat every year for not being as good as it seems.

august fagerstrom

12:44

By year three or so I start to consider the possibility of a guy as a FIP-beater/underperformer, and by about year five I fully believe in it

12:45

So, like, I just published a post on Tanner Roark, FIP Beater

He's three years in. I'm starting to consider the possibility that he actually possesses contact suppression/called strike/whatever skills. But I'm not *totally* buying it until he does it for another year or two

Teheran gets a little extra credit for his pickoff move

jon

12:45

Theo said Chapman upped the Cubs internal World Series forecasts by 5%. Does that seem high/low/rght?

august fagerstrom

12:46

Seems high

Justin

12:46

Braves fans must be bored.

august fagerstrom

12:46

Yeah, I don't know what's going on. There's been a disproportionate number of Braves questions in the queue. Is this Kiley's doing somehow?

Eric

12:47

I think these Markakis folks are trolling. Dan or Dave (I forget which) said there were at least 50 Markakis questions in his chat the other day.

august fagerstrom

12:47

hmm...

Arnie

12:47

For awhile it looked like Dylan Bundy was going to be the pitcher that he projected to be when in the minors. His last couple of outings it seems he has hit a wall. Which Bundy will we see next year?

august fagerstrom

12:48

The recent performance probably isn't totally shocking, given he's thrown twice as many innings this year than he has in any year since 2012

He showed the flashes this year. Give him an offseason of prepping as a starter and count in me as interested

Matt

12:49

Your 3/5 rule for FIP beaters...is that just a point that seems to make sense, or is there analysis on that? Just curious

august fagerstrom

12:49

Just makes sense to me

12:50

It's probably subconsciously informed by analysis I've read, though

Hank

12:51

Do you see Folty figuring it out and being a pure #3 or better?

Connecting…

Matt Damon

4:02

MATT. DAMON.

John Stamos

8:21

Matt Damon

Oneear

4:04

What color skittles are the most poisonous?

pirates hurdles

4:47

Can Braves fans please stop whining about Markakis

Jo-Jo Reyes

4:01

Who's better in 2017, Freeman or Rizzo?

4:02

Rank these hitters: Big Hurt, Pujols, Miggy, Votto, Trout

jon

4:03

ESPN has an article about Epstein up today. Epstein said that acquiring Chapman raised their World Series odds, based on their own modeling from "less than one in five" to "slightly less than 1 in 4". Aroldis Chapman, 5% of a World Series title? Now we know why they made that trade.

Kiner's Disembodied Hands

4:04

Can you see a 5+ WAR season or two from Kang if he can stay healthy? How about 40 homeruns?

A. Reitz

4:04

I'll do it since nobody else will. Bumgarner is a douche. Deshields, Gomez, Puig, Guerrero, Heyward, Myers. All guys who's barked at the last season or so because they don't play the game to Bumgarners sensibilities. He deserves a little old fashioned chin music, if you ask me.

2-D

4:05

Fagerstrom- 20 grade punctuality

CamdenWarehouse

4:05

How did Todd Helton not win the MVP in 2000?

Fire Kevin Cash

4:06

Why don't we adjust wRC+ for the quality of opposing pitching?

Ben

4:07

If I showed you Freeman

Mike_C

4:08

Please watch Freddie Freeman lumber around the bases and explain to me how he is currently putting up positive base-running value.

Ben

4:08

Freeman's HR spray chart is phenomenal. If you didn't know who'

Oneear

4:08

Hot debate on Cubs blog: How many pitchers should Cubs carry into the play-offs, 10,11,12?

nelson

4:09

If mlb went to 9 DH spots in the lineup, how long until there were no 2-way players?

Ben

4:10

Freeman's HR spray chart is phenomenal. If you didn't know whose it was, there's no saying whether it's a right or left hander (sorry, kept pressing enter prematurely).

Avi

4:12

How soon is now?

Guest

4:13

Does Theo Epstein have a reputation for being a jagoff, or is the obnoxious dudebro bs described in today's ESPN article just the culture in MLB front offices?

Matt

4:13

What are your thoughts on Jharel Cotton?

Aladdin Sane

4:14

Minor 80-grade skill: Puig inciting anger

Roadhog

4:15

Is it crazy to see the 2017 A's as a wildcard playoff team? They've looked like the Giants of late, with non-heralded prospects (Healy, Wendle, Cotton, Mengden) coming up and immediately slotting in on a regular basis as above-average players. Then you've got Khris Davis with 40 HR and still more prospects to come...

Sean

4:16

Would baseball be more entertaining if all of the coaching and management could only be done by active players?

Robbie

4:16

With the well publicized effects of Coors on offense numbers and pitching, does that hurt Mexico City's chances of getting an expansion team? They're over 2,000 feet higher than Denver.

Aaron

4:17

Kershaw is back to tied for first in the NL in fWAR and trails only Scherzer in bWAR. With his limited innings, does he have a legitimate shot at Cy Young?

Mike

4:17

Considering the large gap between his power numbers this year and his abysmal WAR, how much do you see Mark Trumbo getting paid next year?

Aunt Jessie

4:18

Please say something about the Giants that will make me laugh and laugh and laugh for the rest of the season?

Hideo Nomo

4:19

Ben Zobrist used to be the most underrated player in Baseball, Instagraphs mentioned Anthony Rendon. Who is your favorite underrated player?

Matt

4:19

Do you think that Russia/Putin is somehow behind the HR spike?

Disco Dan

4:19

At the end of a season, Arod heading into his last inning of his at bats, was sitting at 28 home runs and 93 RBIs. In that inning, he hit a grand slam and a 3 run homer, getting to exactly 30 homers and 100 rbis to keep that streak going. fun fact

Matt

4:21

Does the fact that Kershaw is in the Cy Young conversation while having missed so much time make his Cy Young case even stronger?

Mike

4:22

how unique is Kevin Kiermaier? How rare are his defensive skills? Are players like him changing the way teams scout CF prospects? Seems like defensive stats are getting more robust, but I imagine they are hard to gather for college players, and obv high schoolers. it'll be interesting to the age curve on his defensive skills...

Alex

4:24

Adrian Beltre 80 grade Home runs on one knee

Ceej

4:25

What do you make of Moncada for '17? He's young and it's only been SSS

CamdenWarehouse

4:26

Swanson's OPS+ is 110

Modest Fagersbomb

4:26

Did you see Freeman's at bats against Syndergaard last night? Dude rocked over the left field wall a perfectly spotted 98mph fastball knee high on the outside corner, then smacked into the left field corner a perfectly spotted 93mph slider on the outside corner and well below the zone. Dude is on fire.

Egor

4:27

Kemp has hit .296/.348/.503 with 121wRC+ with Braves. What AL club in need of DH trades for him in the winter?

Daniel C

4:27

Gary Sanchez now leads all AL position players in WAR and has a slightly higher WAR than Fulmer (0.1). Is it possible that a 2 month guy can convince the voters that he should be ROY? Also, considering a total season has the ability to pull value back as players regress, would it be fair?

Vic Romano

4:27

Seems odd to me that in all the NL CY talk, Jon Lester is often left out of the conversation. Do you think that's because (like Hendricks) doesn't have the strikeout numbers of the assumed frontrunners, or (like Hendricks) people are discounting his performance because of the defense behind him?

Ronnie

4:28

Guys who DIDN'T play in MLB: Brien Taylor, Colt Griffin, Kyle Sleeth, Wade Townsend, Kasey Kiker.

Pauly

4:28

Any positive thoughts regarding Matt Wisler and Aaron Blair?

Logan

4:29

Would the Braves be better off getting rid of Markakis for whatever savings they can get and moving Ender to RF and putting Mallex at CF?

botchatheny

4:30

i think the rock could do better than tebow in baseball

4:30

Jon Gray - Legit #1?

Chicago Mark

4:31

What do you do if Maddon, Heyward or ???

Tim

4:31

If the Braves give Rio Ruiz a shot at 3rd base in 2017, what should we expect?

Aaron

4:32

I was just browsing league stats from year to year and noticed that the average WAR for a team's position players has been stable at 19.0 WAR +/- 0.0 for 40 years which is when I stopped looking. Since MLB expanded and added TB and AZ the league's position players have totaled between 569 and 571 WAR annually. Basically a 9-10 WAR player gets his team half-way to having an average roster of position players by himself. I have no point to make, just an observation.

Kevin

4:32

Will Jose Bautista be offered a QO this offseason? Will he accept it?

Doug

4:33

Could you see Ronald Acuna rising quickly among the prospect ranks? Similar to Anthony Alford?

ben

4:34

Mike Trout should have four MVPs :(

Nick

4:34

Are the 2016 Giants the worst 9th inning team ever?

Frank

4:34

Do you think Travis Demeritte has enough potential that the Braves could ponder Albies being a main piece of a package to bring in a power bat or #2 type starter?

Steven

4:35

With the Braves being loaded with arms, wouldn't it make since at this point to just move Lucas Sims to the bullpen?

Felix

4:36

Do you believe Sonny Gray can get back to where he was next year?

Kevin

4:36

Who will be the Jays' starter in a wild card game scenario? Happ? Sanchez? Goins?

Moltar

4:36

Found this hot new rapper with a weird name, maybe you'll like it? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPYnxDsVneQ

Matt

4:36

I left before you answered. Got a burrito. Great minds think alike

Guest

4:37

Pterodactyls aren't dinosaurs. Koala bears aren't bears. "I before E except after C" except for almost 1000 words that don't follow the rule.

Kenny

4:39

Do you think Coppy should abandon the idea of trying to improve the MLB product in 2017 and instead net monster packages for Freddie, Ender, and Teheran in trade?

CamdenWarehouse

4:39

The Atlanta version of Kemp could be a viable DH if he can keep up that production.

Guest

4:39

Assuming the Nats host the Dodgers, what are your thoughts on Gio, Scherzer, Roark, Ross, Scherzer in the first round. This way Gio (a bit of a head case) pitches at home and Max is ready for game 5 on full rest if needed.

hjh0000

4:39

Markakis has put up almost 3 WAR through the first two years of his 44M deal. HE might actually be worth his contract!

Jim Lonborg

4:40

Did you read Laurilia's piece on Buchholz just now, and do you have thoughts? Separately, do you think he can be a feasible fourth starter in the playoffs? (Clay, not David.)

Boss is out today

4:40

Do you see six man rotations becoming more common, both by contenders late in the season and in a broader application - is there a fundamental change coming like when rotations moved from four guys to five?

CamdenWarehouse

4:42

If you are going to make that argument for Porcello, you have to also for Verlander who on many occasions was pitching when he would have had no business being on the field if the Tigers had a real pen.

desertfox9139

4:42

Do you think guys like Kemp & Trumbo might be underrated in the new analytical age?

Matt

4:43

If Gary Sanchez were to enter a game as a relief pitcher and strike out 6 of 6 batters faced, does that guarantee him ROY?

Felix

4:44

Do you think Desmond can stick to CF?

Gregory

4:44

What should be Coppy's #1 priority this offseason, what would you do?

Thomas

4:44

Do you think the Blue Jays should turn Osuna into a starter next year?

Justin

4:45

If the Mets and Cards end up as the NL wild card teams, is that a historic collapse by the Giants?

The other Kyle

4:45

Why do FG writers and saber writers, in general, get so snarky when they're questioned on their opinions? If a better understanding of how baseball works and what metrics should be tracked to measure which things is the ultimate goal, then shouldn't you welcome differing viewpoints?

Ryan

4:46

What's your ideal playoff bench look like? Mine is catcher (obviously), LHH with some pop, RHH with some pop, pinch runner who can play almost anywhere, guy who doesn't strike out much. I feel like you need more of the guys who can help you with a HR in the playoffs.

The other Kyle

4:46

And before you respond, I assure you that the median snark level for a saber writer FAR exceeds that of a non-saber writer. It's Science.

Rex

4:46

Kolby Allard for Jorge Soler, who says no?

bananastand

4:47

What scares you the most about signing Rich Hill during the offseason: injury history, age, or light track record? And even with all that, doesn't it seem like he should be valued higher than 15 a year?

Matt

4:47

Do you think Russia/Putin might be behind the quantity of Braves questions in the queue?

Jane

4:48

Hey August big fan here! What type of player do you see Swanson ending up after a couple years? Thanks! (Love you Hair)

Phil

4:48

At this point, the Giants WS % needs to be at like 50%. It is playing too perfectly into their narrative.

jon

4:48

If the Mets get to the NLDS, Bartolo will start game 1.

NatsFan

4:49

Sidenote to your (great) article on Roark. He's tied for second in baseball with hit batters. I'm under the impression that if he messes up his sinker for one pitch and doesn't get the armside run that he depends on for called strikes, it goes right into an LHB's hip

Hannah Hochevar

4:49

Given the crazy closer market, do you think teams deal set-up arms with closer experience (Grilli, Gregerson come to mind) and that said arms become closers again?

Ryan

4:49

Thank you Cristian Guzman

Avi

4:51

So if all of the Mets pitchers come back next year (A big IF), does that give them a top 5 all around pitching staff (not just starters)?

Ted Bundy

4:51

What constitutes a shift? Like, at what point do you say "that's a shift"? Is there a set distance from normal position or something? Or how far does 2B/SS have to move to be considered a shift?

Victor

4:51

How long before the Braves trade for Anfernee Grier (DBacks 1st rounder in 16')

4:51

Porcello ranks among AL starters: WHIP (1), K/BB (1), ERA (3), FIP (6), innings (tied 2nd), wins (1). AL CY?

Bork

4:52

You're favorite Eno Sarris album?

Zonk

4:52

The Reds just broke the all-time record for home runs surrendered, at 242 and counting. By WAR, they are the worst pitching team of the modern era. I feel another article is in here somewhere, not to kick them when they are down.....

EvanC

4:53

What are the players of this generation that won't make the HOF but were great and our kids will have to ask us about? For example, my uncle's favorite player growing up was Cesar Cedeno. When he told me this (I was about 15, now 22), I had never heard of him and looked him up. I'm thinking Adrian Gonzalez might get lost in the shuffle.

Mankey

4:53

How close is Porcello in the cy young race? He just keeps chuggin along

Merv Throneberry

4:54

Chris Devenski or Grant Dayton or both next year? Who could you love?

Zonk

4:54

Javy Baez is 3rd in MLB in DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) at 2B. He's started 37 games at 2B. That's crazy good, isn't it?

Bork

4:55

Is JR Smith worth $15m a year to you?

Oddish

4:56

Is Uehara back? There was a stretch there where it really seemed like he was cooked. Also are you a believer in the Joe Kelly bullpen revival?

Steve

4:56

Will the Braves net a couple of solid prospects moving Kemp and Markakis this winter?

Zonk

4:56

"I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends, and a good bullpen"--Bob Lemon

Earl

4:57

Any thoughts on whether Daniel Norris will develop into a reliable 2/3 starter type?

Snorlax

4:57

Is this offseason going to be a gold mine for teams willing to part with good pitching?

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