August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat -- 9/27/16
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august fagerstrom
11:50
Just a heads-up, guys -- had shoulder surgery on Thursday, and my left arm is currently totally immobilized and hooked up to a cryotherapy unit. Makes it sort of difficult to type, so bear with me on the speediness of this chat.
11:55
Soundtrack: The Antlers - Burst Apart
botchatheny
12:05
you are looking well
august fagerstrom
12:05
about how I've felt the last few days
petey
12:07
Sale/Kluber/Porcello looks like a total dead heat for the AL Cy. How would you decide a tiebreaker between them?
august fagerstrom
12:09
Sale: 5.9 RA9-WAR, 5.2 FIP-WAR, 6.9 DRA-WAR (6.0 tWAR)
Kluber: 5.7 RA9-WAR, 5.1 FIP-WAR, 6.1 DRA-WAR (5.6 tWAR)
Porcello: 6.2 RA9-WAR, 5.1 FIP-WAR, 4.7 DRA-WAR (5.3 tWAR)
Probably start there
I know some folks don't like the "mixing of WARs" approach, because it's a bit disingenuous as all are attempting to measure totally different things
But, I mean, Sale is the best pitcher by all three. I think DRA's capturing of him being severely negatively impacted by framing, which is completely out of his control, is a big point. He's probably my guy right now.
12:10
I lied, actually, he's not the best pitcher by all three. Porcello is by RA9
But, still.
jon
12:10
For all the talk of Cubs BABIP suppression and where it comes from, what's lost is the Cubs staff has the lowest xFIP in the majors.
august fagerstrom
12:10
I think people understand that the Cubs aren't just some BABIP-fueled machine. They're an incredibly talented staff with an incredibly talented defense and what appears to be incredibly talented coaches/front office-types
Mike_C
12:11
Fernandez currently leads the league in K/9, FIPs, xFIPs, and fWAR among qualified pitchers. What are his Cy Young chances?
august fagerstrom
12:11
If the season ended today, he'd have my vote, and it has nothing to do with his demise.
Graves
12:11
Corey Seager is pretty good, can he get... better? In what areas of his game do you see the most potential growth?
august fagerstrom
12:11
Defense. Which seems highly unlikely.
Hideo Nomo
12:13
Is the chance that Jose Fernandez wins the NL Cy Young higher or lower than it was?
august fagerstrom
12:13
Slightly higher, I'd guess. But I think more importantly is that he just deserves it regardless.
M&M
12:13
I don't think I've ever been so affected by the death of someone I didn't know as I have been by Jose Fernandez's. What do I need to do to make myself care about baseball again? I'm saying this as a CLE fan, fully aware they clinched last night. Couldn't even smile once.
august fagerstrom
12:13
It's not something you can force.
12:15
What Dee Gordon and the Marlins did last night absolutely devastating -- I was in my mom's kitchen sobbing like a baby -- but I think it also helps serve as a reminder as to why we watch baseball and what it does for us. It's a distraction, a distraction that can be gorgeous and uplifting. I had wondered how I'd possibly care about baseball the rest of the season until Dee Gordon did the most beautiful thing I've ever seen in the realm of sports. It brought me to my lowest point, and subsequently made me give a shit about baseball again.
Mike_C
12:15
Have you thought about looking into speech to text software during your convalescence?
august fagerstrom
12:17
My mom recommended that. Problem is my FanGraphs posts aren't just something that I write 1,000 words straight through. There's tons of editing and rewriting, not to mention Excel work, table-making, video-watching, gif-making, etc. I've got a decent set-up right now with some pillows and a USB keyboard that get me elevated enough to where I can kind of use my left arm to help with some typing. No scenario would be ideal, I don't think.
Elton
12:17
Tell us more about this cryotherapy unit. Is liquid nitrogen steaming out of it?
august fagerstrom
12:18
It's essentially a high-tech ice box with a shoulder sleeve that applies compression and ice to your shoulder in 30 minute increments, that you wear all day
It's both horribly cumbersome and a massive inconvenience and ultimately soothing and a major relief
FireJoeMorgan.com
12:19
Great article on the evolution of saber metrics & how people are wrong
august fagerstrom
12:19
Agreed. This is a good read.
Elton
12:19
I just finished "The Only Rule Is It Has To Work". Did you read it and if so what did you think?
august fagerstrom
12:19
It was awesome, and nothing like I expected. Leave it to those guys to write such a compelling, touching human-interest book with a nerdy baseball narrative.
They are the absolute best.
ShakeYourTushieHasegawa
12:20
Hope your shoulders are healing okay mr fagerstrom. Thanks for your personal memories on fernandez this morning, they kept the tears coming.
august fagerstrom
12:21
Thanks. It's really bizarre when you cross paths with someone and they're gone three weeks later. That's certainly not to say that I'm more negatively impacted by Jose's death than anyone else, but it makes for a very surreal experience to have so recently felt an energy that has since been extinguished.
I'm really glad I was able to see him acting like a big, exuberant child the way I did. I also imagine he was just like that all the time.
Erik
12:22
Who is baseball's Carson Wentz, a rookie that people think have a chance to be good eventually but everyone expects will take time to develop, but then goes and produces like a veteran right away?
august fagerstrom
12:22
I have no idea who Carson Wentz is, so maybe not a great comp, but your description reminded me of Francisco Lindor. And, really, tons of rookies over the last couple years. Seems more and more these guys are ready to contribute as soon as they get here.
Bruce
12:23
If every manager was thrown into a draft who would go 1-2-3? Maddon, Bochy, Showalter?
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