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August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat -- 9/6/16
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Bork
12:52
Is Brett Cecil a prime example of why you don't pay premiums for relievers? Before the season started he was looking at a giant off-season contract. Now all he has going for him is "am lefty can pitch"
august fagerstrom
12:52
Sure. And Andrew Miller is a prime example of why you do
J
12:52
At what point do we consider a high or low LOB% a skill? We know pitchers can hold runners to varying levels and some get more outs but what about the guys that perform really well/awful from the stretch?
august fagerstrom
12:53
Three years seems like a fair amount of time. If a pitcher runs a LOB% a standard deviation or more above/below league-average, good chance there might be something there
Jim Lonborg
12:54
Um, Andrew Miller tried being a starter and it didn't go well. I doubt he'd be eager to give it another shot. Let us not forget the ghost of Daniel Bard. . .
august fagerstrom
12:54
I'm aware of this, and it's certainly not something I'd actually suggest. But when Andrew Miller was a starter, he hadn't figured out how to pitch the way Andrew Miller is currently pitching. His delivery was completely different, he had no feel for his slider whatsoever, and he threw a bunch of other crappy pitches
12:55
What I'm saying is, hypothetically, what would reliever Andrew Miller, who commands his slider to the same area of the zone 60% of the time with his new, efficient delivery, look like if he stretched out to be a starter?
12:56
Just a fun thought. Feels like he could be an above-average starter. Whether he could provide more value in that role than he does currently as a reliever, I'm not as sure
Julio Pepper
12:56
So, another Hall of Fame question. Cano has 48 fWAR at 33 and looks to be on the path. He has almost 60 bWAR, which makes him close to a lock. I know they use different defensive metrics, but this seems like an enormous gap. I think he gets in easy; any thoughts on this?
august fagerstrom
12:56
Cano Kinsler and Pedroia are kind of all in the same boat. As long as none of them collapse and they all play 4-5 more years, they'll all be right on the cusp
12:57
Let's say one of them ages really well and makes it easy, one collapses and makes it easy, and the other is a really tough decision that we all bitch and moan about a decade from now
Dock Ellis
12:57
Altitude Disc Golf update: yep, discs are definitely more overstable here. Maybe it flies a little further too but that's no confirmed.
august fagerstrom
12:57
This is awesome
And probably frustrating when you're actually on the course
Snarfle
12:59
Too early to be excited by New Buxton? Normal answer is yes, but has he ever had a stretch like this in the majors?
august fagerstrom
12:59
I mean, he had 3 homers in his first 109 games, and then has had 3 homers in his last 5 games
1:00
So no, he's never had a stretch like this
Add to that the four homers he hit in a row in AAA two weeks ago, and yeah, consider me excited
JIm
1:00
The Jays and Boston play each other 6 more times this year - look into your crystal ball and tell me how those 6 games shake out
august fagerstrom
1:00
exciting!
Julio Pepper
1:02
Can you name more than 10 pitchers you'd rather start a single game than Rich Hill?
august fagerstrom
1:02
Assuming no blister issue whatsoever?
1:03
Kershaw
Fernandez
Scherzer
Syndergaard
Sal
Those 5 for sure
Sale*
Probably Kluber
Maybe Bumgarner
1:04
And then Hill is right there, IMO
So, no. I don't think I can
EvanC
1:05
Robinson Cano has a leg up on those guys. I don't care what fWAR says. bWAR considers him easily best player of the three.
august fagerstrom
1:05
what if I don't care what bWAR says?
(I do. But I think you consider all the information, and don't just discard some of it because "reasons")
1:09
Sorry for the delay. Had to take an important phone call real quick
A cat
1:09
When you look at the 15 and 16 graphs for JBJ's offensive production, there are almost identical 35 game spikes. Is it a pattern you need to consider on projections, like that is flukey and would lower your estimates accordingly?
august fagerstrom
1:09
That's random
Or at least: I feel very comfortable in saying that's random
Ben
1:10
Tebow to Braves seems like it's gonna happen. As a Braves fan, part of me wants to be embarrassed, but another part of me wants to just say "eh, he'll probably suck and be gone within a year or so, so whatever".....
august fagerstrom
1:10
A National League team would be a surprise to me
Figured he'd wind up in an AL org so that left field wouldn't be a must-have
Really want the Astros or Blue Jays hitting guys to get their hands on him
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