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August10 2020 Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:03
Greetings, all! Back for another week (though sad to say the Cardinals are not joining us just yet), so I'm at least thankful for some baseball. Lots to chat about, see the queue is filled up; and we're off ...
Richard
12:08
Would you drop Senzel for Ian Happ in a 5x5?  Myers and Santander are also available.
Brent Hershey
12:08
Yeah, think I might, based on two factors: 1) Senzel's injury history, which seems to be cropping up again (though they say the groin issue not serious); and 2) Happ's made gains that have seemed to stick. Honesty I'd slightly prefer Senzel's talent in a vacuum, but all of that is out the window this year. Trust Senzel over Myers/Santander, tho
Rich
12:11
Hi Brent.  In a 5X5 redraft, should I hold onto Spencer Howard or drop him for Jordan Montgomery, Corbin Burnes, Trevor Mahle, Josh Lindblom, Tyler Chatwood, Framber Valdez, or Merrill Kelly?  Thanks!
Brent Hershey
12:11
I prefer Howard to the others on that list, even acknowledging the rookie pitchers syndrome. I've seen Howard live several times through the minors, and overall was encouraged yesterday. He really didn't have his crisp, high-90s FB yesterday and yet made it work. As long as Phils give him rotation shot (I THINK they do, but still TBD), I like his chances to improve as the year goes on. Like other guys some on that list (Burnes, Mahle, Framber to some extent) but pref Howard to all right now.
Jeff
12:15
In an AL-only league. Is Lance McCullers worth holding onto? Small sample sure, but is his low swinging strike % a sign that he's nowhere near back to normal after TJ?
Brent Hershey
12:15
Yeah, been a rough go for McC so far and the SwK drop as you say is concerning. Still only three starts, but if you have better options on your bench or free agent list (really depends given you're in an AL-only), then I'd explore. Injury history, coming back from TJS, results so far don't look promising for this year at least.
Other consideration: With Astros rotation devastated by injury, team is more likely to throw him out there every 5 days. Which may not be good for your fantasy experience.
Rich
12:17
Further to my previous question, Howard hadn’t pitched competitively in quite a while and it was his MLB debut, after all.  Should we attribute at least some of his command issues (lots of strikes, but too many down the middle) to those factors?
Brent Hershey
12:17
Sorry didn't see this followup, Rich -- but yes, I think so. Local reports say while he was working out at satellite camp, hadn't really faced live batters in a while, which is surprising and could have something to do with lack overall crispness and maybe the slight velo drop. I hope they get him on a regular schedule here in the majors.
Jeff
12:21
Thanks for today's HQ article on slow-starting hitters. The article highlights batters who, to quote, "stand great shots at rebounding." For my AL-only team, one notable name was missing -- Gleyber Torres. His base skills look similar to last year, but low hit rate and no power this year. So what's his outlook for a rebound?
Brent Hershey
12:21
Thanks for subscribing, Jeff! But yes, you're on the right track — Torres could have absolutely been a part of that article for the reasons  you mention. HR/F% is way down from his historical spot, too, which points to the just 1 HR so far. I know it's hard here in the short season, but I'd not be moving/benching Torres at this point given what we know. He should come around.
10Tm 4xAL OB-TB
12:25
Any chance Benintendi will be sent to ICU (or whatever they're calling it), soon? I need this LTC off my active roster--a reserve slot does open up next week. Do you think he has the same thing that Vogelbach might be getting over, and that Altuve, Bregman and Brantley might have caught this last week? My team is sick, but not in the good way right now.
Brent Hershey
12:25
Oh, Benni .. this is tough to see (and experience) as he was an offseason fave of mine to rebound. But unlike Torres above, his (too?) early returns are just horrible when compared to his previous metrics: 56% ct%; 0 HR/1 RBI. I mean, sure, he's getting BABIP'd to death, but here's also a guy with a mid-20s line-drive% history with a current LD% of 5%. He's one I'm looking to bench or cut right now depending on other options.
Titan
12:31
What could the Tigers receive for Turnbull?  He has a lot of control years left and imagine his stock has never been higher.
Brent Hershey
12:31
Have no way of knowing the answer to that question, but I'm not sure it would be a big windfall. So far, his underlying metrics very similar to his 2019 full season; he hasn't giving up a HR yet and getting a BABIP boost, both of which could change (and perhaps that's what you are saying). But I don't think MLB teams will look at say that this 2.00 ERA after 3 starts has altered what they think of him.
As for Turnbull himself, I like the GB% and think he's a perfectly usable starter; and feel he's somewhat undervalued in fantasy. But he's still a back-end guy once the Manning-Mize-Skubal calvary arrives.
Ryan
12:34
Thoughts on Mackenzie gore call up when u think he makes it too the  big leagues?I seen padres sent Joey l to alternate camp.
Brent Hershey
12:34
My own speculation is that Gore could be called up here at any point -- but that's pretty much my standard answer for any/all top50ish prospects who have got at least some AA experience under their belt. The Pads do have some SP options now, esp with Patiño up, though he might take this year as a multi-inning guy in teh pen, as we've seen his first two outings. Gore, I think, will be a starter from the get-go, so the team will likely be thinking along that line -- which current starter would Gore be replacing? Right now, doesn't seem like Lucchesi's spot is open just yet.
Rob
12:39
What do you make of Cristian Javier? 2 impressive starts followed by a dud in Oakland. His career minors numbers are better than I expected  but he walked too many. His projection on the site was quite favorable after his first two good starts and still is though it looks like he is being projected for some relief work. Control issues resurfaced yesterday and 3 homers allowed won’t get the job done but Oakland has that kind of lineup. Can Javier get it done in the rotation or is this more likely a bullpen arm long term?
Brent Hershey
12:39
Thanks for subscribing, Rob! I think it's par for the course on Javier so far. He's not a pure 'stuff' guy at this point; has had success in minors and some in MLB helped by his deception. So in that light perhaps our original proj was a bit too rosy. But that is likely where the bit of relief work comes in -- and it's still minuscule to be fair. I think long-long term (beyond 2020), yes, this is likely a bullpen piece; but for now I'll bet HOU gives him his shot in the rotation (esp when they have few options right now). But ... expect some ups/downs via his performance, as with a lot of rookies.
Guest
12:43
Vlad a mess?
Brent Hershey
12:43
I wouldn't say a mess -- in the way that someone like Benintendi is trending. In fact, Vlad is killing the ball on contact -- a full 50% of his batted balls have been classified as "hard hits" in our system (and I expect Statcast would tell you the same think via exit velo). But ... results, yes, have been disappointing. Tons of grounders early on; plate metrics in step with last year. No reason to jump ship here.
WayOffBase
12:47
When will the Cards play?  I just put Goldy back in my 5x5 Mixed lineup yesterday, thinking they would be playing. :-(
Brent Hershey
12:47
Really, these situations creating roster havoc for fantasy. I'd say the earliest they get back (best case scenario) is for the weekend series with White Sox (pretty sure that Thu DH w/ DET will be called off soon). But that's only if everything is clear until then. I def made some FAAB bids last night with STL/PIT off for that first series in mind. Really affects those of us who have rostered cornerstone guys like Goldy, Flaherty, etc.
Just remember ... this is NOT normal. It's an asterisk season.
Guest
12:50
Any words of advice for a Paxton owner?  I played him in his first 2 starts but not yesterday in TB.  Do you think he has turned it around or will continue to be inconsistent?
Brent Hershey
12:50
I'm hopeful. Only 3 starts and velocity is down a bit, but 16/2 K/BB ratio so far in those three starters (just 10 IP); SwK and FpK are steady, a full HALF of the batted balls agains him are falling for hits. Might be too early to be using these metrics, but it's all we got so far. Unless there's an injury, I think he rebounds.
Rod
12:54
Is this level of dominance sustainable for Shane Bieber? I know there were some analysts who were cool on him going into this year. Curious because I'll have a keeper decision to make on him next spring.
Brent Hershey
12:54
Boy, I think it is. He came into the league with pinpoint control but I had questions about his hitablity -- that a mediocre FB would lead to tons of contact and long balls. But he's just gotten better over last year and these four starts -- more swing and miss, a tick higher on FB, way he works through games controlling his arsenal. I mean of course you can't predict 1.63/0.76 ERA/WHIP out long-term, but I def feel like it's legit ace stuff at this point.
Dennis
12:58
Can you give some perspective on Matt Boyd's troubles so far this season. Should we expect him to right the ship?
Brent Hershey
12:58
Worried about the K rate snapping back to pre-2019 levels—actually, all his skills—and the fact that he just gives up a lot of HRs. I mean it's not this bad and he should improve some, but so far some significant 2019 skills gains have not held over. Jury still out.
Brian
1:02
Hey Brent - received an offer of Paddack for my Urias, Paxton, and Pearson in a keep 22 dynasty league. I’ve done well to make a number of 2 and 3 for 1 trades but I’m worried that Pearson May be paddack only a few months from now. Would appreciate any thoughts you have. Thanks!
Brent Hershey
1:02
No, would not make that deal. I'd keep that young pitching depth. Sure, Paddack is the 'sure thing' among that quartet, but could easily see either Urias OR Pearson being at Paddack's level in another year or so. And if that's the case, then you 'lose' the deal by also including the two other pitchers. Counter with Pearson (highest upside of the 3 IMO) for Paddack straight up. Depending where your teams are in the dev cycle, that could actually be a fair now-for-later type of trade.
DrDave
1:05
Been playing roto for 36 years.  But something in intensity is missing for me this year.  Are you feeling it too or is it just me?
Brent Hershey
1:05
Well, could it be this global pandemic that has fundamentally altered our world, let alone our baseball season in the past 6 months? :-) Seriously, though, that needs to be a consideration. I think we're all feeling it — and should be, really. The difference in length of season and that routine being a big part of it.
Brent Hershey
1:06
OK, lightning round here as we finish up ...
Rob
1:07
With an eye towards next year, are there any younger players without much opportunity right now that you think could see a spike next year? I'm currently holding Dom Smith who is already starting to get more playing time and Edwin Rios. Looking for those types that I may be able to stash cheap with an eye towards more opportunity opening for them in the future.
Brent Hershey
1:07
Smith more than Rios at this point (not sure Rios has an opening). Pick any top-rated rookie who is currently struggling but getting experience. This season will continue to provide opportunities like that.
Greg
1:08
Hey Brett- Who do you like rest of year between Gregory Polanco and Sam Hilliard. I have Polanco at $3 second year and Sam Hilliard attached to him $10 1st year. Thanks
Brent Hershey
1:08
Go with the vet for ROS; Polanco
terp
1:10
Good afternoon. What are your thoughts on some of the younger big time prospects like Adell and Harrison who have gotten off to slow starts. anyone you really like to rebound?
Brent Hershey
1:10
Hard to say on those two with less than a week. Adell better; since he was better prospect overall. Remember that the world is discombobulated for these guys, too. Routines different, etc.
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