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BaseballHQ Chat - April 17 2023
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Brent Hershey
12:02
Hello Friends! Great to be doing this again. Thanks to the several of you who reached out asking about this ... these will be weekly from here on. You all showed up here in April, tons of questions to get to!
12:04
Reminder from the top (if you've not submitted already)... context matters for the best answers. So a brief description of format, teams, choices between players is your best chance to get an answer. With the volume we have here, open-ended questions (Who's your favorite sleeper?) are more likely to be pushed to the bottom of the pile. Excited to do that again .. and maybe (?) we'll have  the Patriots game on in the background... Let's get to it!
Johns
12:07
Pick 1 SP for this week: Eovaldi @KC, Bello vs LAA, MIL, or Musgrove @ARI?
Brent Hershey
12:07
Our numbers have Eovaldi by a pretty wide margin. That KC offense that musters just 3.38 R/G so far is a big part of it...
Jack
12:11
Brent, welcome back! I hope the offseason (and early season) is treating you well. Is it too soon to play “buy low”?

I’m wondering your thoughts on these players, within a dynasty context:

Alejandro Kirk – Struggling and not playing every day.
Gabriel Moreno – Where’s the pop?
Shane Bieber – Velocity down another tick. Is he still elite?
Alek Manoah – Velocity down, as well. Horrid start.
Juan Soto – SD has been a nightmare.

Thanks!
Brent Hershey
12:11
Thanks, Jack! In a dynasty context, never too soon to play buy low. Quick thoughts on this quintet:
Kirk: was always gonna be a job share this year, especially if both are struggling, which is the case. Med interest in dynasty
Moreno: Shouldn't expect near-term pop; if that comes, likely will be later (poss even future seasons)
Beiber: he's one that can make it work; very good but prob no longer elite
Manoah: shaky peripherals coming in; not one I would expect for quick rebound
Soto: Weird; very weird. Maybe TatisJr helps? Still believe in skillset, but can't figure it out

Good luck!
Beano
12:13
I threw a dart at McGough as a potential saves choice. Is it time to retrieve my dart & throw again? I’m looking at Nick Anderson in Atlanta
Brent Hershey
12:13
Yes, it's time, and Anderson is a great choice - though realize it's still just a dart, esp if saves are the ONLY thing you're chasing (NA can be a deep-league asset methinks given some of the SP performances we've seen so far)
Beano
12:14
and - welcome back & thanks for these chats
Will
12:14
Thank you for doing this!
Brent Hershey
12:14
Great to hear from you both!
Will
12:16
4x4 al only keeper league.is Belt gonna be fine? and Emmanuel rodriguez. lots of varying opinions on him, i got him in  my minor league draft. top 20 prospect MLB end of year? Thank you
Brent Hershey
12:16
Gonna assume that if you're AL 4x4, you're probably 12 or 10-teams (IE, deep). In that case, pretty much have to hold onto Belt, I'd think. Does have a RHP-heavy week this week, so I'm looking for SOME signs of life I hope. Rodriguez -- yes, talent is there for him to be a Top 50 guy (20 might be pushing it). But error bars are wide. Good AL-only stash for now, though.
Mr. Mets Maniac
12:19
Brent,

They finally did it! Baty's back in the show! How good do you expect the kid to be both this season and long-term? Is Top-5 3B realistic?

Go, Mets!
Brent Hershey
12:19
Hmmm ... eventually top-5 -- maybe? Like him a lot, though it's more of a hit tool plus power now than a true 3B masher in the Riley vein. Has the skills to do well right off the bat; one key will be how much the Mets will play him, as well as if they just insert him at one position. Fun player to watch for sure.
Kathy
12:22
Brent's back! =)

Quick question. José Alvarado looks to be the best BP arm for the Phillies. Do you think he eventually emerges as the team's closer?

TY!
Brent Hershey
12:22
Thanks, Kathy! I doubt that Alvarado emerges as "set" closer -- all that Thomson and the FO has said for almost a year now is that they play matchups, and they got to a WS with that formula. Yes, JA is the best of the current lot, and his start is amazing. I suspect he'll move closer into that saves "circle" if things continue to trend this way. But I think the org philosophy for now is not locking into ONE closer.
Koz
12:24
Welcome back HQ Chat!!  I drafted Max Kepler this year thinking (hoping!) that the shift was partially the reason that he has dropped off a cliff since his 30 HR season..and the early returns are...well, don't think they can get worse.  Nothing in the underlyings so far suggest that his results aren't warranted...what say you?
Brent Hershey
12:24
Kepler's small sample smaller than other small samples b/c of the knee injury. Am with you on hoping for a better season, but still too early to make any conclusions.
David
12:26
I picked up Avisail Garcia in my NL only 12 team league as my last pick for $1.  I've seen a few of his at bats and he looks like an over matched little leaguer.  Is he Done?
Brent Hershey
12:26
Yes, has been rough. Don't think he's done, though. Wrist will need to be monitored, however, but in a deep NL only, you probably just need to hold.
Greg
12:29
AL 5x5 AL Keeper Dynasty League-Do you think Kolten Wong turns things around? He has been horrible here to start the season. I have decent draft capital in him and Baseball HQ still has him projected for 9 HR and 13 sb-keep or time to cut bait here? Thanks as always
Brent Hershey
12:29
I do think Wong turns it around. Plate discipline skills within reason; getting BABIP'd to death right now. Maybe bench if you can, but would not cut just yet.
Frank
12:30
Do we think Johan Oviedo is legit?
Brent Hershey
12:30
I do -- though not starting him in COL this week, and there will be some bumps along the way. And PIT not exactly a SP factory. But some real good things going on there.
Jesse
12:32
Nolan Gorman looks exciting early on, you buying a breakout for him this year?
Brent Hershey
12:32
Inclined too, yes. Worked on a swing tweak in offseason that addressed his weakness in hitting high fastballs. Early indications are exciting -- at least in part due to his power potential.
Jeffrey A.
12:35
Brent ..

Are you up for an early round of “Would you rather …”? In a keeper league, are you going with:

1. A. Jordan Walker or B. Brett Baty?
2. A. Andres Gimenez or B. Jazz Chisholm?
3. A. Josh Lowe or B. James Outman?
4. A. Gabriel Moreno or B. Endy Rodriguez?
5. A. Luis Robert or B. Michael Harris II?
6. A. Ben Joyce or B. Andres Munoz?

Enjoy the early baseball, everyone!!
Brent Hershey
12:35
Missed these, Jeffrey!

  1. A
  2. B
  3. B
  4. A
  5. A
  6. A

Wow, these are good ones -- almost all were close. Comments: Walker/Chisholm more explosive bats than those other (VG) choices. Joyce > Muñoz b/c I think SEA will likely continue to be a job share
Carl
12:37
Thoughts on Trevor Rogers so far? Is he a solid rebound candidate?
Brent Hershey
12:37
Yes; tentatively optimistic. Draft results (ADP) seemed to not take his late-2022 tweaks into account. Encouraged so far.
Tony from The Bronx
12:38
Will Volpe have enough pop/contact to make a difference this season?
Brent Hershey
12:38
That will be the question, as obviously the legs (SB) are there. My hunch too, is that if the defense sticks, the Yanks won't replace him.
D-back Nailbiter
12:40
Hi Brent. Too early to worry about Jake McCarthy?
Brent Hershey
12:40
Yes, I think it's too early -- though the full Backs outfield works against him. A slow start or slump could take him out of the OF rotation.
Mark
12:41
In a 15 team NL-AL points league, would you drop Brady Singer or Eduardo Rodriguez for Bello, Braxton Garrett, or Drey Jameson?
Brent Hershey
12:41
Despite the early-game Patriots Day results, Bello seems to rise to the top here. But probably Garrett over Singer/E-Rod, also.
Guest
12:44
What do you make of the early szn skills from Cody Bellinger?
Brent Hershey
12:44
About what I expected -- but if he keeps up this contact rate, could be even better than I expected from a BA upside. CF defense means he will play; power + speed will be there.
Guest
12:46
Is Miguel Vargas a must roster in 12 team category redraft leagues?
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