JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/11/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/11/21

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Ben Clemens

2:35

And first base coach I dunno, let's say Scarlet Witch, b/c she's high on my avengers character power rankings so let's get her in there somewhere

Will

2:35

What is the best stat you look at if you want to bet the Over or Under on a game?

Ben Clemens

2:36

probably RS/RA for each team, plus for the starters?

barney gumble

2:36

is there some legitimacy to nestor cortes? obviously he's not a 2.50 ERA SP, but could he force himself into the yankees' rotation?\

Nestor Cortes

2:36

I know he's not this good, but he's doing some genuinely skilled things out there.

Ben Clemens

2:37

there's definitely some reality to it, but it kind of feels like his ability to live on soft contact is tenuous

2:38

Shades of Ivan Nova to me, as a Yankees rando who came up and was better than I expected despite stuff that doesn't jump off the page

Nestor Cortes

2:38

So could he be a... 2 WAR guy going forward? He's only 26, he could be an average pitcher.

Ben Clemens

2:38

Yeah Nova had 4 2-WAR seasons, that's exactly the band I'm looking at

Mork Borg

2:39

"shallow retools the Red Sox did (sometimes not on purpose) " - could you expand upon this? When you say not on purpose, what does that mean? Like they didn't mean to contend or they didn't mean to retool?

Ben Clemens

2:39

Oh, they didn't mean to retool

That worst-to-first-to-worst stretch was presumably not on purpose

Chris

2:39

Mariners are still only at 3.2% to make the playoffs. That's less than the mets, Cardinals and blue jays....

Ben Clemens

2:40

Yeah, that sounds about right! They're marginally worse off than the Cardinals odds-wise... 1.5 games closer to the WC but with a team in their rearview and obviously they've been outscored by 62 runs this season so we're skeptical about them

2:41

Worse than the Jays, basically same reaosn

I'll give you that the Mets look weird though

They ahve really fallen out of it

2:41

Ben Clemens Has Arrived* (No question just thanks for everything you bring to FG)

Ben Clemens

2:41

Why thank you

Not loving the asterisk though :)

Ryan

2:41

Nats would be following the Freddie Freeman model

Ben Clemens

2:41

Yeah, this one is close enough!

2:42

I guess Turner is Simmons/Kimbrel in this analogy

Derek

2:42

I get to see two-way Ohtani in Baltimore on Wednesday and I am unreasonably excited for it. Any players in your lifetime you remember being similarly excited to see play in person?

Ben Clemens

2:42

First time I saw Trout was like that

Other than that, I saw Michael Jordan in Double-A when I was a kid

Well, that's not true, the game got rained out

But I saw him get off the bus

Appa Yip Yip

2:42

If you're the Jays do you try to bring back Semien, Ray, both, or look to find next year's bounceback/breakout candidate?

Ben Clemens

2:42

Ray for me

2:43

I'm a long-term Robbie Ray believer

Mi Nombre

2:43

Brent Suter is 18-4 with a 60 ERA- in 95 relief innings since 2019 all while throwing his 87 MPH heater over 75% of the time & working at a Buehrle-esque pace. Is Brent Suter the most interesting pitcher in baseball?

Ben Clemens

2:43

Yeah he's the best! Really fun to watch

CoryMC

2:44

In the NFL, a team's record in close games tend to stabilize year to year. Is this true in the MLB as well? Does a team's record in which 3 runs or less is needed to decide the outcome shift dramatically year to year?

Ben Clemens

2:44

Not exactly sure what you mean by stabilize, but it tends to revert heavily to the mean over time

2:44

Reliever WAR is... odd but would you care to guess who is the top AL reliever by fWAR?

Ben Clemens

2:44

I haven't looked, so I'm gonna be way off probably

But I have to think it's gonna be someone weird like.... Paul Sewald maybe?

He's been wildly good, as this chat comment helped remind me:

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