JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/11/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/11/21

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, welcome to another Monday baseball chat.

The offseason continues to slowly grind along, though I do like the Schwarber deal for both him and the Nats

And obviously, Francisco Lindor just got traded!

2:01

Let's talk baseball, and also the roast chicken I made and carved last night, not that I'm bragging or anything

Craig

2:01

Can the Mets start the season ? I’m so pumped

Ben Clemens

2:01

As a former NY resident, I know plenty of Mets fans. "So pumped" is putting it mildly. We still don't know how Cohen is going to do long-term as an owner but this is a pretty solid win to bank

2:02

This Mets team is gonna be a ton of fun. I already thought they were more fun than their record, and Lindor is just the best

Tacoby Bellsbury

2:02

If you were to create a relief pitcher of average overall talent for you to get the maximum possible enjoyment from watching them, what would you choose? A somewhat wild flamethrower? A screwball specialist barely scraping 90 mph? Someone with a Frisbee slider who struggles to get ahead in the count? A sidearmer with a wicked sinker and a delivery that looks like it hurts? The options are limitless.

Ben Clemens

2:02

What a wonderful question

2:03

I think I'd go for a knuckleballer

But the screwball specialist works too

2:04

The idea of someone coming in and just being bizarre and not very good but also not very bad is just funny to me

Like late-career Chris Young

JJ

2:05

Padres about to sign Tatis Jr to a long term extension after acquiring Snell, Darvish, Kim this offseason. Great for baseball! What type of terms do you think they'll reach?

gcat

2:05

what do you make of the rumored 300/11 year deal for tatis? would that even be a wise decision for the padres, considering that (a) tatis is still under team control for many seasons and (b) we only have a sample size of 143 MLB games to go off? like, what's even the upside for the padres to be extending tatis so early? why not a deal like acuna's?

Ben Clemens

2:05

I wouldn't put too much stock into the detail until they announce the exact details

I think they'll end up with something that ends up compensating him at a level higher than Acuna, with team options on the back end

Guest

2:06

Other than possibly signing Molina & Wainwright, do you think the Cardinals will add anybody? Maybe a backup catcher? (That is what this offseason has done to me: Backup Catcher!)

Ben Clemens

2:06

They already got Heineman!

I think that they will add another middling starter, but yeah: the Cards have been pretty transparent about the fact that they aren't trying to improve this offseason, solely cut costs

John B

2:07

I keep reading that trading arenado is difficult because of the opt out. In what world does he give up what he already has negotiated ? His contract is miles underwater.

Ben Clemens

2:07

Yeah, I agree that that take is stale

It might have been true in late 2019

I certainly don't think it's the case now

2:08

The real problem with trading Arenado is that he's worth a significantly negative amount of surplus value given his performance and age

2:09

I think another problem is that trading Arenado AND something to get a random prospect in reeturn

is just not very palatable to Rockies ownership

I think they're hoping he'll opt out and save them the trouble

C

2:09

Hi Ben--I have a hypothetical I'm curious about, since it's interesting to think about the results different pitches get. Let's say you have Pitcher X, an extreme soft tosser (mid 80s?) with a low strikeout rate. Pitcher X nonetheless manages to be a strong starter by posting elite walk rates and suppressing BABIP at an elite level by generating extreme flyball and popup rates. What sort of pitch mix/stuff profile would you expect Pitcher X to have?

Ben Clemens

2:09

I think they'd be Kyle Hendricks, basically?

2:10

So they'd feature a two-seam with good movement (if we take the low strikeout rate for granted, two-seamers allow better results for the pitcher on batted balls)

And probably a changeup/slider combo that play off of those

Jeff

2:10

Random but why isn't there more coverage of the MLB and NCAA courtship last decade and the economics of that relationship?

Ben Clemens

2:11

Not to plug another website on this great one, but Baseball America has always been my go-to for reading about the macro structure of those types of relationships

They're great, JJ Cooper is great

Dodger Fan

2:11

I'n definitely in the minority here, but I'm really high on Edwin Rios and would prefer the Dodgers to go after depth starting pitching rather than a star 3B/SS. Your thoughts?

Ben Clemens

2:11

I like Rios quite a lot. I also like the Dodgers' starting pitching quite a lot!

2:12

I think they'd be wise to make a bunch of small bets. They don't need a star 3B, but I wouldn't mind a platoon partner for Rios, and if they think that the DH is likely Turner also makes a lot of sense

I'd go after reclamation project pitchers too

Rob

2:12

I am getting the sense that baseball in 2021 might be even harder to pull off than baseball in 2020.

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