JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/11/21

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Ben Clemens

2:36

Depends on if I have money or not

If I have money, I'm doing what the Mets did and going after Lindor with an eye towards signing him

If I don't, I'm targeting Story and giving up prospects to get him

2:37

I'm just down on Semien relative to the other two, tbh

Ben Clemens Replacement

2:37

Good news! This chat will be extended infinitely. Bring on the questions!

Ben Clemens

2:37

Mechanical chat answerer sounds awesome. I'll see if Appelman can find room for it in the budget

Chewbacca

2:37

Any chance the Cardinals are laying in the grass with their money whining and will eventually end up with an Arenado?

Ben Clemens

2:37

I hope so!

I still have a good amount of Cards fan in me, even if I can step back from it and be objective

2:38

I just think that the Rockies are going to have a hard time trading Arenado

They seem to think he's a stud with a ton of value, whereas teams think he's a contract with an above average but below-cost player attached to it

2:39

I do think that St. Louis is the kind of place he'd end up going, though

Ben Clemens Replacement

2:39

On that note, I’m off. Have a great day everyone, and I’ll talk to you next week.

Ben Clemens

2:39

Dang robots!

2:39

Thanks for the answer! Following up though, wouldn't a two-seam focus be more conducive to a groundball-oriented approach, rather than Pitcher X's extreme flyball generating profile?

Ben Clemens

2:39

Ooh I saw the popup thing but not the extreme flyball

My bad

Okay, so new plan

2:40

It's a guy who has a ton of ride on a four-seamer, but who is a suuuuuuuper long strider, such that he's releasing the ball at a very flat angle to home plate

flat vertical angle

2:41

this isn't a new thing, but it's a new thing in mainstream baseball analysis (pitch design types have been in on it for a while)

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/where-vertical-approach-angle-seems-to-mat...

So we're talking Yusmeiro Petit at this point

Gutbuster

2:42

What do you expect the price difference (AAV/years) is between LeMahieu, Wong, and Profar? Which of these player puts up the best value (WAR) over next 3 years?

Ben Clemens

2:42

I think that they'll go in the order you said in terms of high to low

I think that Wong will probably deliver the best FanGraphs WAR per dollar spent

2:43

Teams seem to be wliling to pay less for defense-first profiles like that

My guess as to why is that because players of that type are under-compensated in arbitration, there are simply more cost-effective substitutes

WAR is relative to replacement level, not relative to the players currently on the team, which is why a bias like this can persist without being irrational

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

2:44

How do you standardize sticky substances? It's hard to imagine the rulebook carving out an exception for BullFrog sunscreen. Maybe the league could provide its own sticky substance, but that's a whole 'nother can of worms.

Ben Clemens

2:44

Oh yeah I think it'd be their own sticky substance

I personally would not recommend canned worms