JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/13/20

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/13/20

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Ben Clemens

3:27

Oh, quite high. And to be honest, I don't think that we'll ever be able to prove how much this benefited them. I think we will look back and say that the Astros got some advantage, and that they were punished by more than they gained.

3:28

I have no clue if that's true, but to me the main (totally provable) victim in this is the viewer, who had to watch longer games.

And as victims go, that's not so bad.

Ham

3:28

Ben, have you played Wingspan? Friends got it for the holidays, and we all had a blast with it the other night!

Ben Clemens

3:28

Ugh jealous. We aren't buying new games at the moment because we have a backlog (getting a dog cuts into your gaming time)

But I've had my eye on Wingspan

I'm a sucker for pretty games

And it's really pretty.

Matt

3:28

Its seems a little odd that the MLB wouldn't wait with the findings on the Astros investigation to line up with the Red Sox, no? Could this mean that there is some larger information in the Sox case that might take quite some time longer?

Ben Clemens

3:30

Yes. I think that MLB wanted to get something done on the Astros, and they had more lead time there. There's no compelling reason to sync up the punishments given that we're not in-season; I'm sure the Red Sox would like to know ASAP, but if MLB is still investigating, they're still investigating, and I'm guessing there's a lot to dig through.

tom

3:30

i've basically taught myself excel vba based on stackoverflow and trial/error. it can be done!

Ben Clemens

3:31

Little inside baseball story that probably no one will enjoy: 14-ish years ago, in a college internship, my boss asked me to code something up in VBA. I said, absolutely, give me two weeks.

Then I bought a book on what VBA was, and spent four hours a night learning it.

FInished it just in time!

(it was a loop that tried to predict seasonal changes in natural gas prices based on weather, and it amounted to nothing)

HOF

3:32

Does this harm Beltran in the voting down the line? And Altuve someday with his case (if the MVP figures heavily)?

Ben Clemens

3:33

I'm curious to see what Jay thinks about this. My guess would be Beltran no, because it's not as though his performance on the Astros is part of his candidacy. But Altuve yes if he's a cuspy HOF'er, because his peak and accumulation stats were both potentially affected.

Cheating Expert

3:33

I'd say that Yu Darvish might have some opinions on who was actually hurt the most. Remember when he suddenly starting "tipping pitches" against the Astros?

Ben Clemens

3:33

Well he's actually opined on this already. I can't find the Twitter thread offhand, but he didn't seem overly upset.

As a side note, if you don't follow Darvish on Twitter (and you use Twitter), do it now.

3:34

He's 100% undoubtedly the best active player to follow.

Ty Kelly is up there, but not active.

And also, Yu Darvish is an All Star while Ty Kelly is not. So Darvish wins the tiebreaker.

2-D

3:35

Do you think this punishment deters teams enough to in turn lessen the chances of MLB implementing the possible wacky anti-cheating measures they were discussing?

Ben Clemens

3:35

I do. This is a lot of dough. Owners care about money. MLB is going to be vigilant. My sense is that they are investigating MANY teams right now.

Matt

3:35

Regarding Beltran/HOF impact...not that I necessarily disagree with your argument, but how (if at all) would that argument be different from the "Barry Bonds was a HOF'er before he started taking roids" argument?

Ben Clemens

3:35

The difference is that Bonds played a lot of seasons where he was still great while allegedly using PED's.

3:36

Beltran was on the Astros for a year and was worth -1.1 WAR

Stop Bonds' career before 2000, and he'd be a lot worse. Stop Beltran's career before 2017, and he'd be better.

James

3:36

Over/Under on 2.5 more teams facing punishments before all this is done?

Ben Clemens

3:37

Easy over.

Under 0.5 teams facing punishment approaching Astros severity

But I think they'll want to do some small fines for small things to show that they're serious.

Matt

3:37

Right, but if we could statistically put pre-roid Bonds in just on his pre-roid stats, then the roids negates him not due to impact but due to integrity. Thus wouldn't the integrity aspect also disqualify Beltran? (Again, just playing Devil's Advocate)

Ben Clemens

3:37

Yeah that's fair. I mean, I can't put myself in the shoes of those voters, because I'd vote for Bonds.

3:38

But also, my guess is that those voters don't hate sign stealing as much as they hate PED's? Sign stealing is as old as baseball, and Beltran is a baseballer's baseballer.

Astros 2020

3:38

Is the team going to be humble for a year, finally? Like will they stop talking? Because that's the thing that really needs to happen.

Ben Clemens

3:38

So, I'm not what you'd call an insider.

I don't know anyone on the Astros, or much of anyone on any team really.

But I always got the sense that the whole 'smartest guys in the room' vibe started from the top.

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