JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/23/23

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Ben Clemens

2:14

Good luck finding another player like Javier Baez, for exmaple, or Tony Kemp

Oaktown Blues

2:15

Right now, if everyone is healthy, the A's will have Waldichuk, Muller, and Sears in AAA. They also have said they plan to stretch out AJ Puk to start. Given this, should the A's be looking to trade Irvin or Blackburn to allow some young auditions? Or am I underestimating attrition?

Ben Clemens

2:15

I think you're either underestimating attrition or overestimating prospect certainty

These things tend to work out

2:15

Unpopular opinion: Jordan Walker is 20 and should chill/polish in AAA for his own good for a few months (and not just because of the team control benefits).

Ben Clemens

2:16

I don't thikn that's a particularly unpopular opinion. I think he'll have his chances to play in the majors this year, but it's not like there's an obvious place for him to play to where it's criminal to keep him down

It would be one thing if an injury opened up a hole in the lineup or one of the presumptive regulars was a complete black hole offensively

2:17

But we have Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman riding the bench in the majors right now, and Juan Yepez batting eighth for them

I'm skeptical how much of an upgrade Walker would be ex ante, without seeing how he develops this year

Safety Stegosaurus

2:17

Where'd you ski?

Ben Clemens

2:18

Whistler. Overcast conditions all week, and the visibility was sometimes awful (fog banks), but it snowed a ton and I had a great time

Ryan

2:18

Do you think the Padres lock up Machado on a second contract before he opts out?

Ben Clemens

2:18

I do. I think they'll do a Kershaw type deal where he tears up the opt out in exchange for some kicker

Oaktown Blues

2:18

Who is your favorite rapper?

Ben Clemens

2:19

Ooh, good question. I'd love to go with some ridiculous indy suggestion, and I really do like Watsky more than he is popular, but he's not my favorite rapper. All time I'd say it's probably BIG, I like Jay-Z a lot (not now but you know, when he was good), and Run the Jewels gets an honorable mention

I saw Big Boi in concert at a music festival and he was AMAZING, one of the best live shows I've ever been to

Steve

2:20

Wins are likely to be few and far between, but what do you expect out of Gore this year?

Ben Clemens

2:20

I'll be watching for his fastball command

I think that his scattershot location was holding him back in '22, and it's funny because I thought he would be good at that before his whole lost 2021 season thing

New UK fan

2:20

Loved the piece on rates and contract length. Any thinking on option valuation in player contracts? Seems to me that is not well understood by fans

Ben Clemens

2:21

Good news, I wrote something about this a while ago when I first started writing here, and there's even some Python code in it if you want to try it out yourself

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/whats-an-opt-out-worth/

It's player options only, I should maybe do one on team options as well

2:22

Nootbaar's name seems to be coming up in a lot of rumors. If you were the Cardinals, what kind of return would you have to consider (a la Arraez)?

Ben Clemens

2:23

I'd need him to be the centerpiece for a star controllable pitcher

I don't think that's very likely; the Cardinals FO seem like they are as high on Nootbaar as I am (ludicrously high)

Gross Man

2:23

Why the color change? Just branding/aesthetics?

Ben Clemens

2:24

Yep

Big Fan

2:24

How nervous should Atlanta fans be with Vaughn Grissom starting the year at SS? He started the year in A+ last year and it seems very rushed.

Ben Clemens

2:24

I'd be nervous for sure

2:25

He looked pretty overmatched in September. The Braves were seemingly down on him as a starter, they were using Orlando Arcia instead

So like.... huh?

2:26

Scarcity doesn't equal value: this should also be said of left handed starters.

Ben Clemens

2:26

Oh for sure. I don't think I'd add much at all to Lopez's value for being lefty

He's just a guy who throws bulk innings with a sub-4 ERA, which is valuable period

RTJ

2:26

Is the Red Sox front office flipping a coin each time they go to make a transaction that tells them whether to spend money or dump salary?

Ben Clemens

2:26

I love this concept

Wheel. Of. Red Sox!!!!!!!!

comish4lif

2:27

If you are not the prospects guy or the HOF guy... which guy are you?

Ben Clemens

2:27

I'd say I'm the new guy, but that's not really true anymore, and hasn't been for a while. I guess I'm the economics guy? Dan's the numbers guy in this formulation

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