JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/27/20

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Ben Clemens

1:59

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat.

2:00

Judging from the early queue, we'll have a lot of NL Central and trade market questions today. But everything is fair game -- and I really enjoyed last chat's board games talk, so non-baseball topics are definitely a go.

greg

2:00

Do you think Cincinnati is finished and will just see how things shake out, or is there a road to using some OF surplus to land the SS they covet

Richard

2:00

Could Danny Jansen and Ken Giles make sense for Senzel?

Ben Clemens

2:00

The Reds are really interesting now!

2:01

Not that they weren't before.

Craig wrote about the Castellanos signing: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/reds-see-opportunity-in-signing-castellano...

2:03

I'm not sure whether shortstop or catcher is more of a hole for the team, but I think this Blue Jays offer makes some sense. Not sure who says no on that one.

The shortstop trade market isn't exactly deep unless the Rockies go all Arenado and trade Story

So given that, this kind of offer makes sense to me.

Giants fan

2:04

Do you think Dubon is good enough to be in the lineup of the next contenting Giants team?

Ben Clemens

2:05

I mean, not right now! The wonderful thing about prospects, though, is that their results are variable and unknown. This time next year, we'll know more. I would try to give him a lot of ML playing time this year, though, between second and short. Not a lot of edge to holding a 25-year-old in the minors, and they'd love to see what they have.

Moooookie

2:05

If Dbacks get Betts, they have at least a 50% chance of finishing ahead of the Dodgers. Agree?

Ben Clemens

2:05

Haha, uh, no?

2:06

Admittedly our Depth Charts are a rough tool, but we're projecting the Dodgers for 93 wins and the Diamondbacks for 79 right now.

Mookie isn't *that* good.

I think we're too low on the DBacks, but I also think we're low on the Dodgers. Mookie would make them Wild Card contenders who could spike the NL West if things go well, but favorites? Nah

Baby Yoda

2:07

Should the Cardinals trade Gorman for Arenado? I get the point but that's a ton of future value for a basically fair-priced player.

Ben Clemens

2:08

Yeah, uh, this is a really interesting trade that says a lot about how you value prospects and stars. I think that trade makes sense, because acquiring Arenado makes Gorman less valuable to the Cards, and I'm not a huge fan of the type of prospect Gorman is (power-first corner infielders with contact issues)

But I also acknowledge that you're probably giving up surplus value in it.

2:09

But if it's that trade or nothing? I'd be hard-pressed to say no as the Cards, assuming something gets done about the opt out.

Go pirates

2:09

There's a lot to like about Joe Musgrove's profile, could we see a real step forward in 2020?

Ben Clemens

2:11

I'm into a lot of the stuff Musgrove is doing -- he throws basically the entire kitchen sink and gets whiffs with his secondary stuff.

Now, I don't like throwing literally six pitches, because I think there's something lost when you're throwing the whole cutter/slider/curve spectrum; pitches blend together in a way you don't necessarily love

2:12

I haven't seen a lot that would convince me his cutter is worth keeping, and I'd be tempted to scrap the sinker as well, but I guess my point is yes, I like Musgrove.

DJ Tanner

2:12

People give Friedman a lot of crap for now cashing in on the Dodgers $ or prospects to get some stars. But it seems like he is playing his cards perfectly. Their farm is still stacked and their MLB team is maybe the best in the NL. Having a 20% chance to win a WS over a 10-15 span or a 50% chance to win one over a 2 year span. Don't the see the state of the Cubs and Red Sox right now? Great they won a WS and now it is going to take years to get back to that level again and the fans are all upset they aren't better. Can't have both!

Ben Clemens

2:13

Yeah I am a really big fan of the Dodgers/Rays/arguably Cardinals model

Of constantly retooling without ever really going all in or rebuilding.

Now maybe I'm biased by growing up as a Cardinals fan and always having meaningful baseball

2:14

But I'd argue that counting only World Series titles is a bad way to look at things, and that building sustainable teams that are always fun and competitive is a great idea if you have the resources.

Now I'm not saying that every small-market team can just press the Rays or Dodgers button

But if you can, I think it's the preferred strategy

2:14

Indians arguably follow that model as well, and it's very satisfying to me as a fan of that team

Ben Clemens

2:15

Yeah I mean, they're a special case in that they might tend *too much* towards sustainability, but man, watching competitive baseball every year is fun.

Christian

2:15

In a trade involving the Red Sox and Padres, I'm probably going to like the side that the team with Chaim Bloom receives more than I like the side that the team with AJ Preller receives, correct?

Juan

2:15

What do you make of the reported Padres-Red Sox trade talks and offers?

Ben Clemens

2:15

I dunno man, Preller has held his own in trades. You can argue that the Padres have made weird free agency signings or taken weird directions strategically (going all-in his first year there, for example)

2:16

But it's very cult-of-the-Rays to just assume Bloom is going to win any trade. We don't really know! And the Padres and Red Sox want different things, which leaves space for a trade that suits both sides.

Starling Marte to the D-Backs

2:16

Is what they're saying right now. Thoughts?

TomBruno23

2:16

Hold the Betts to AZ talk as it looks like the Dbacks are going to acquire Starling Marte instead.