JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/27/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/27/25

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QB

3:24

Let's say the Astros resign Bregman, moving Paredes to 2B, Altuve to LF. How do you evaluate/quantify the value of resigning Bregman considering he moved two players off their natural position? Even if Bregman is good, it seems like it could be a net neutral

Ben Clemens

3:25

pretty in depth question for a chat but briefly, I think I'd do a chain esitmation of how much each hurts the team to play out of position

I think in this case it might actually be a lot. Altuve is declining defensively and learning a new position at his age is tough, so much of his value at second base is likely instinctual

Paredes at second? I would be covering my eyes, and I love Paredes

I think Paredes DH Yordan LF, or Paredes LF, makes more sense

particularly with the short porch

Matt Damon

3:26

MATT. DAMON.

Ben Clemens

3:26

Matt, we've missed you

Alec

3:26

Can we resolve all the Astros hypotheticals and just collectively purchase, say, 10 million hot-and-ready pizzas so he can go to Detroit?

Ben Clemens

3:26

tortycraig

3:26

Appreciate the comments on Cardinals FO decision-making dynamics. So much handwringing this offseason on 'well who's really making the calls' and it's like, all of them lol. Like people can make joint decisions, there can be delegation, there can be consensus etc.

Ben Clemens

3:26

Yeah, I'm surprised people seem so taken aback by this

I heard the announcement and was ilke oh this makes sense to me

JJ Picollo

3:26

Am I going to trade for an outfielder or is MJ Melendez going to be the starting LF for no good reason other than inertia

Ben Clemens

3:27

man.... I was first gonna say 'but there's no space for Melendez, who I think is decen,t on the bench'

uh, there is

that's a dicey bench. so yes, you absolutely SHOULD

3:28

and I think that even if it's a late-career veteran or reclamation project, something will happen

Judge

3:28

I mean yes he is very uniquely shaped

Ben Clemens

3:28

double meaning was intentional there

Mike

3:28

Who will the Dodgers trade to make room for Kirby?

Ben Clemens

3:28

please no

James

3:28

What slash line do you see Jacob Wilson producing in a full season?

Ben Clemens

3:28

oh man.... I don't have a strong prediction but my minor league model (retired, bless its heart) loved him at every turn

3:29

it was about predicting chances of sticking in the bigs and didn't do translations or line projections, so ehhhh...not sure about the specifics

3:30

I'd take the under on Steamer's 120 wRC+, which would have him as basically a perennial All Star, but maybe ZiPS and its 111 OPS+?

That's like a borderline All Star

ML

3:30

introduce a salary cap and reduce the reserve clause to 4 years; who would say no first, the owners or MLBPA?

Ben Clemens

3:30

owners

I think that the reserve clause is a bigger deal to them than the cap is to the players

both sides would say no, though

Robbie Boyfred

3:30

Could you see the players union agreeing to a 5th tier of luxury tax and an offseason two month signing freeze in favor of MLB adding a 27th roster spot? With modern pitcher/catcher usage and slow off season, these changes would benefit all.

Ben Clemens

3:31

I could. I don't think that the league office would like it, though. They're trying to fight against the way pitcher usage is gonig, an extra roster spot is a weird way to go about that

O'Honk

3:31

Brewers would be a great trade fit for the Royals if they could line up. Yelich probably better mostly DH'ing now but even so, Garrett Mitchell seems available with Chourio, Frelick, and Perkins also filling out the depth chart.

Ben Clemens

3:31

Yeah. I guess I don't see what the Brewers want from the Royals that the Royals want to trade

but I agree with the thinking

Anselm

3:31

The Yankees seem to have some faith in Volpe/Wells/Jasson taking leaps this year, and maybe feel the same with Gil/Schmidt -- while also getting a full season from Jazz, who hopefully stays healthy. Yankee fans online bemoan the team not matching $$ with LA -- do you think of the team as weirdly conservative with their spending limits, or do you see some sensibility in their planning? I wish they had one more IF, but the Kim/Bregman/Arenado options all seem pretty flawed....

Ben Clemens

3:32

I think that they're being very long-term practical at a time where they have the best player in baseball at the tail of his prime

there's a mismatch here between how I perceive the incentives (build a great team for 2025/2026, b/c you know for sure that you have Aaron Judge playign great) and how they perceive them (build a long-term sustainable system by not taking on any bad risks)

3:33

if I'm right, their behavior is incorrect b/c they're not bunching up their surplus value in the years where they have a great team. if they're right, well, they're right

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