JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/27/25

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Bullock's

2:43

Does the Soto deal mean that MVP-caliber young guys won't be signing extensions for anything less than $400M now? Like, are the deals that JRod and Witt signed already out of date as comps for Henderson / de la Cruz / Merrill?

Ben Clemens

2:43

I do think so, yeah.... or at least, for hte guys who are up at 20, their expected value has changed meaningfully

to be fair I htink that both Witt and JRod signed are good examples of how these deals should go in the future though

2:44

they're both kinda funky and structured

particularly JRod's, tbh. with the escalators based on performance

Ryle Tuckly

2:44

How deep of a run in the playoffs do you think Cubs fans can reasonably expect? WS contenders?

Ben Clemens

2:44

i mean, the median expectation has to be 'miss playoffs'

but probably not by a ton

2:45

like, every playoff team is a WS contender. I think that the Cubs are the second-best team in the Central, probably not a team that's gonna get a bye though

Colton

2:45

That's fair, I know you do a ton of research on different things so I was more curious if you had looked into it and decided there wasn't enough there for a full article or if it had been something that was missed. I remember when the swing happened and audibly gasped because I thought he ripped it again like he did in the minors

Ben Clemens

2:45

oh yeah... that injury happened while I was writing up the 2023 trade value series but hadn't locked it in hyet

2:46

and I remember talking to Meg about it for a long time

we were very concerned that he'd just miss a year

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

2:46

On which team does Arraez fit best? Mariners?

Ben Clemens

2:46

I think the Mariners are actually a really bad fit for him

they don't have any baserunners for him to drive in... and no power hitters to score him when he's on base

singles hitters are at their best on teams that have tons of traffic on the bases

2:47

how about Arizona?

team full of speedsters

Bosoxforlife

2:47

Are the Orioles actually only the third best team in the AL East? They don't seem to be getting much from their very highly touted crop of prospects and it looks like their window is closing before it even got opened.

Ben Clemens

2:47

well, to be fair, one of their highly touted crop of prospects is Gunnar Henderson

and that guy is amazing

I think that the wave of reinforcements that was supposed to arrive in 2024 has even been mostly a success... Cowser popped and Westburg wasn't a rookie but still was a young contributor who took a step forward

2:48

I think the baseball analysis community got into "the O's will have another mega prospect b/c they always do" mode after Adley and Gunnar hit. They've still had an incredibly successful run of converting prospects into big league contributors

I think what we're really seeing here is that you need some outside assistance to put those teams over the top even if you're hitting at hte highest rate imaginable

2:49

like, no team in baseball has more superstar-prospects-turned-ML-stars than the O's, to my eye

2:50

but when your marquee free agent moves are like Tyler O'Neill, Charlie Morton, Gary Sanchez

it's just very hard to make a championship level team exclusively out of internal options, even if you go full tank rebuild to juice the farm

there are 30 teams producing talent. When you're in a win-now phase, not dipping outside your own team's talent pool to enhance the squad is a bad call

2:51

Where do you want Arenado to start the year?

Ben Clemens

2:51

okay, this is maybe a little uncharitable of me

but I'm pretty over Arenado's grandstanding

going from Cardinal for life to I just want to play for a winner, get me out of here, to refusing a trade!

b/c he "wanted to let the market develop"

sir, you are under contract

2:52

you had last year to do that if you wanted to, when you negotiated for an opt out

I think him ending up on the Cards and just being a huge grump about it

when they'd agreed to a deal to send him to one of the two most successful teams of hte last decade

would just be hilarious

Rickey says

2:52

Why don't we see more hitters attempt the extreme crouch batting stance to shrink the strike zone ala Rickey Henderson? I would think players struggling in the minors for years have nothing to lose to at least try it.

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