JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/27/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/27/25

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Luis

2:59

Why have you generally been lower than consensus on Jackson Holliday?

Ben Clemens

2:59

huh

good question

I think that a lot of his projection was pretty tools-focused, I didn't love how much he was striking out in the low minors

3:00

As I mentioned up above, I care a lot about contact metrics in the low minors

But I think also, I just am a lot more willing to accept that prospects bust than your average prognosticator

and the hype around Holliday was at can't-miss, surefire levels

people comparing him to the best players in baseball before he'd played in the majors

so I'm just always gonna be a little lwoer than consensus when there hasn't been any production

spaceman

3:01

the aforementioned Orioles' new owner publicly calling for a salary cap you know he's not spending any money he doesn't *have* to

Ben Clemens

3:01

I didn't say that but dang

malcolm

3:01

The Padres sure seem like they’ll want to move a high few high salary players before the season starts - any guesses on who’s most likely to be sent away?

Ben Clemens

3:01

I'm still thinking Cease because the market for top tier pitching is hot

WAR by age

3:01

Someone on baseball reddit made a chart of the most WAR at each age (active), and the only one under age 28 with more than 25 WAR was Soto at 36. But then I looked it up, and, yes, he's "old," but Judge has 16 more WAR in all of 61 more games played. That's gonna be a hell of a peak-heavy HOF case when all is said and done.

Ben Clemens

3:01

I think Judge is a Hall of Famer

with a very weird shape for SURE

Red Sawks

3:01

Will the Red Sox try to flip Vaughn Grissom if indeed Kristian Campbell gets the 2B job? Why exactly did they trade Sale for him if he is not going to get an opportunity?

Ben Clemens

3:02

I mean, plans change right?

they traded for him b/c they thought he'd be an everyday player in 2024

heck, I liked the trade for them. I think he's a good fit for Fenway

3:03

but you have to adjust to the facts on the ground, and he was bad in limited time and now they're getting crowded

I think they'll find a way to try him out somewhere this year

but y eah, the leash was shorter than I expected

LimuEmu

3:03

Do you see Shota Imanaga as a likely candidate for regression given his fly ball heavy approach, especially since Wrigley played unusually pitcher friendly in 2024?

Ben Clemens

3:03

hmmmm

not really, b/c he gave up a ton of dingers

3:04

I think the big reason I'd expect regression in run prevention is that he had an unusually high strand rate

but his xFIP (league average home run rate applied to fly balls) was lower than his FIP

and in watching him, I felt like that fly ball tendency was keenly felt and a reason he didn't do better

like, you can imagine a season where he spikes a very low HR/FB rate and is AMAZING

but that wasn't 2024

3:05

he was just very good in a way that looks mostly repeatable to me

Mr. E

3:05

How's the progress coming on the fielding metrics article?

Ben Clemens

3:06

mmmm..... sidelined until at least March b/c I got into free agent stuff and it seems like a lot of people are changing defensive metrics or adding new stuff

now I'm onto prospect stuff

somehow this offseason has been busy

Vladdy Jr

3:06

If I have a year like my 2023 stats, will I regret turning down the Jays extension offer?

Ben Clemens

3:06

sure. but if you have a year like your 2024 stats, you'll feel like a genius

Bighen

3:06

Why don’t the Mets just announce what they’ve offered Alonso. 4 years $100M should work for both sides. And tell boras to beat it.

Ben Clemens

3:06

I dunno

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