JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/31/22

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Jfast

2:55

Building off the arsenal q: would you rather have Cole's or McCullers

Ben Clemens

2:55

At the levels they throw? Cole's, because he's just a better pitcher?

In an abstract sense, McCullers, b/c I dunno, four-seamers feel boring to me at the moment

2:56

Sinker/curve, that sounds fun

particularly with his new slider

x2R

2:56

Screwball or ChangeUp? Why?

Ben Clemens

2:56

So, this is another nuance-laden one

2:57

I love that Devin Williams has his airbender/screwball

I'm happy that the whole league doesn't have it

if there were equal incidence of each pitch, I'd vastly prefer changeups

So I love that there are more than 0 screwballs, but a changeup is just a cooler pitch to me in the abstract

Ted

2:57

Jeremy Pena: 105 wrc+ o/u?

Ben Clemens

2:57

In '22? I'll take under b/c I like betting with edge

2:58

but league average ish hitter is where projection systems are, and that seems just fine to me

Chip

2:58

If you search K%-BB% min. 20 innings in '22, the chart goes DeGrom, Hendriks, Hader, Iglesias, Kimbrel ... Art Warren. I'm drafting Art Warren late, is what I'm saying.

Ben Clemens

2:58

The Reds aren't regarded as good at pitching development for nothing

2:59

It is kind of interesting to me that he's mostly crushing guys with his slider, and it's more old-fashioned tight slider than the sweeper that is all the rage right now

But look, that pitch looks great and I wouldn't bet against him continuing to throw it often and command it

3:00

'command it' is the key point here, the way this doesn't work is if his walk rate goes a little bit north

3:01

We have a 40 command on him, that's obviously worrisome -- but if that's a 50, his plus fastball and plus slider sure sound like a good reliever to me

Nate

3:01

In theory, if the Astros get an improved Bregman, a league average version of Pena, and Correa kind of regresses a bit to his projections from last year...are we really going to skip much of a beat? Not to mention replacing Greinke's innings with Verlander now

Ben Clemens

3:01

Yep, that's my basic view

Might even be a little better

Largely b/c of a Bregman bounce-back and having Verlander back, not b/c Pena is as good as Correa, but still

Ted

3:02

Luis Garcia (pitcher) had a surprising uptick in velo in the WS last year - would you agree he seems like the strongest #3/4 SP in MLB?

Ben Clemens

3:02

I would not

I'll take Freddy Peralta

and probably Ryu also

3:03

Whichever of Darvish or Snell you're lower on, even

Clevinger??

but yeah, Garcia is up there?

But not #1 in my opinion

Thanks for all the questions everyone, I'm off to run a ton of errands and eat some much-deserved lunch

Have a great week, and may there be labor movement by the time we talk again next week

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