JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/5/26

Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, and welcome to my first chat of 2026

2:01

Not that a lot of baseball is happening right this minute, but a lot of baseball news has happened in the last month

Also I promised a cookie chat to a reader, so we're gonna talk cookies. Let's get started

Look At This Sotograph

2:01

Tell this Bay Area rain to take a hike, Ben

Ben Clemens

2:01

a)phenomenal username

b)it's wild. I'm up in the Sierras (heading back home after this chat, actually) and it rained nonstop from Saturday to this morning

Jim

2:02

Where can the A's get a starter to improve their rotation? Does Colby Thomas for Brady Singer make sense for both sides?

Ben Clemens

2:02

Mmmm, I'd have to do more digging than I did just now, but I'm guessing no? like, I don't look at Colby Thomas and think he's a huge missing piece contributor for the Reds

2:03

So like, could this be it? Sure. does this make sense? I haven't done nearly enough of a deep dive on Thomas. My guess is that he's probably just a 5th outfielder and so no, it doesn't, but I'd want WAY more data than just a quick eyeballing during chatting

Oaktown Blues

2:03

bold prediction: At some point this offseason, Heyman will breathlessly tweet "Suarez to the sox" and no one will know which Suarez or which Sox he means (this was funnier when all the Suarezes were still available)

Ben Clemens

2:04

that sounds wonderful

oh, this is really fun by the way:

Sonny

2:04

What’s one FA move you feel is so obviously a fit you’re surprised it hasn’t happened already (other than Realmuto)?

Bregman has to feel a bit nervous now right? I was surprised he opted out of his deal and potentially wrongly assumed he knew there was a better contract/team waiting for him this winter. Where do you see him signing?

If Bregman signs elsewhere and Casas continues to be exactly who he has been do you think Craig Breslow looks deep within himself to understand how he traded his best hitter and accepts some blame or does he double down on his ‘no no it’s the children who are wrong’ routine?

Ben Clemens

2:04

I think these three questions go together really well and they're even by the same person

I think that Bregman to the Sox is an obvious fit, in fact

2:05

I'm surprised it hasn't happened and think that the Sox have definitely telegraphed wanting to do that with their behavior the rest of the winter

but um, yeah, the Sox just continue to be an interesting unfinished team, with unbalanced needs and surpluses, very delightful to opine on as an analyst

Insert Witty Name Here

2:05

Let’s start the first baseball chat of the year with…tennis! Aussie Open up first, any reason to think it’s not Alcaraz/Sinner for everything?

Ben Clemens

2:06

Not really, no. I guess if you're looking for reasons to find underdogs, Alcaraz changing coaches at least makes it plausible that he'll be lost and open the door for someone else

2:07

But I just checked the gambling odds and those two are the only ones inside 10:1. I'm more interested in the women's, to be honest: five players inside 10:1 and Mirra Andreeva is really interestingly volatile

Bob

2:07

One of many I’m sure - so what happened with the Japanese contract predictions and what does it mean for whomever comes over next year?

Vee

2:07

In regards to Free Agent Rankings, what lesson(s) have you learned so far this offseason?

Ben Clemens

2:08

I mean, I'm not 100% sure but I know that two of these three guys are the ones I overrode my model most on, and the one that wasn't (Okamoto) was one where I came pretty close

2:09

I think it says that I need to be a little more trusting of projections for Japanese players. Alternately, I think it's reasonable to say that the way the posting system works is starting to push teams to shorter deals, and players are okay with that because they then get another bite at the free agency apple. Teams seem to be less interested in the current Dodgers plan (give the guy an opt out in a big deal) and more into the old Dodgers Maeda plan (complicated contract with opt outs and stuff)

Appa Yip Yip

2:09

As a greedy fan, who do you think fits the Jays better at this point - Bichette or Tucker?

Ben Clemens

2:11

Probably Tucker, though for the price perhaps Bichette. Both play a position where they'll be meaningful upgrades. But Bichette + Okamoto would mean that Ernie Clement is under-utilized, whereas Tucker+Okamoto would mean Addison Barger is, and that's fine, I expect them to need Barger at DH decently often. Good problem to have, though

Oaktown Blues

2:11

Appreciated your write-up of the Soderstrom extension. I left a comment to this effect, but I'm wondering if you think Soderstrom might be not just a scratch defender in left, but actually good? He had +5 OAA/+10 DRS in LF without any professional experience at the position

Ben Clemens

2:11

Who knows

2:12

those metrics are super noisy, trying to do them in Sutter Health is I'm sure confusing too without much of a baseline, and the variance from one year to the next is massive, past track record really does matter

Could he be a good defender? Definitely

2:13

but I'm applying some Bayesian thinking here: a reasonable prior is that a catcher with 50th percentile sprint speed won't be a great left fielder, and 860 innings of advanced defensive metrics is not a stronger signal than that

the odds that he's actually a good fielder have clearly shot up. But I still don't think they're 50%

Steve E

2:14

Hey, BC, I'm looking at the projections for 2026 already and was wondering why Ryne Nelson of Arizona is basically an afterthought in SP rankings. He was about as good as any pitcher in the NL over the second half. I know the K rates are below average, but what's the rest of the reasoning there? Thanks!

Ben Clemens

2:14

I don't actually do the projections, but I looked through them, and basically they just think Nelson will continue to be a meh ERA meh K's guy

and like.... that's what he's been!

so, I think it makes sense

DRS vs OAA

2:15

I often see these mentioned as equal or similar stats but isn’t OAA mostly range while DRS measures defense more comprehensively?

Ben Clemens

2:15

ehhhhh, I use FRV instead of OAA generally (fielding run value)

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