JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/5/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/5/26

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2:52

the rise in "Rynes" in baseball over the last 20 years is 100% due to Ryne Sandberg, right? (I mean people naming kids after him, not that he sired all these lads)

Ben Clemens

2:52

oh definitely

Jeter Downs, but on a much larger scale

Insert Witty Name Here

2:52

sorry I keep hitting enter too quickly! For defensive value, what exactly are the stats measuring? If I were an analyst, I think the important things wouldn’t be what happened, but rather physical tools. We have the tech to measure that stuff in granular detail. Wouldn’t you prefer knowing who has better sprint speed, reaction time, and throwing velo/accuracy rather than making an 80% probable play?

Ben Clemens

2:52

So, this is a really interesting question about statistics in general.

2:53

Do you want wRC+, or a stat that breaks down the physical tools in great detail without trying to aggregate them holistically? Or even worse, do you want to try to create an all-in-one true talent stat? That, for my money, is basically impossible

I think that there are two different things going on and that honestly, this is a big point of contention about WAR in general

there's 'what happened?"

for that, I think you want the 80% probable play thing. You care about what happened, and how likely it was that that thing happened, and therefore how mcuh that specific player's contribution mattered

2:54

for predictive stuff, well, you would care about different things. It's like how barrel rate is a better predictor of future wRC+ than wRC+ (I haven't updated this recently, but stuff like htat)

well, sure it is. But I still care how the guy actually hit

I think that one of the reasons dudes like Bill James and Tom Tango fight all day about WAR is that they don't agree on what it is

there's a descriptive WAR and a predictive WAR, none of us are agreed on what we're looking at, and that creates a lot of disagreements about statistical value

DEF

2:55

If you're enjoying the Odd Pieces puzzles, you should check out the Ravensberger Escape Puzzles, where the puzzle doesn't match the box, and there's an Escape Room-like puzzle to solve as well.

Ben Clemens

2:55

Ooh we've done some of these too

also good

2:56

for whatever reason, I"ve only gotten smaller escape room puzzles from them, this was a nice 1000 piecer. but our local game store has those sometimes too and I do like buying htem

Decoy San

2:56

Dumb question: Could Sheehan and Hope get Duran out of Boston? Should the Dodgers try that?

Ben Clemens

2:56

hmmmm.... I mean, again I'd have to do more work on this, but I assume that would be fine

2:57

like, that the Sox would probably be willing to deal there

I don't know that I like Duran enough to do that if I'm LA, I'm really into Hope

Scott

2:57

But, Ben, that reasoning for IBBs actually isn't sound. That player did get a "chance to bat" in that the opposing team had to decide to intentionally put him on base. If it were entirely driven by gamestate then every player would be IBB'd in the same situations with the same likelihood; and that's obviously not true. And then downstream of the current method you get all these wonky outcomes that are clearly wrong (if admittedly not very impactful) - Ohtani's IBB being counted (in a novelty exercise) as doubles, Oniel Cruz being penalized (vs average) for an outcome that at worst was league average in the situation. I just don't understand why it doesn't bother you. Honestly, just calling it half an unintentional walk would probably be a lot closer that the current method.

(Fair enough on wRC+ not being additive. That was a lazy shorthand on my part.)

Ben Clemens

2:57

okay, responding here for one last one, but then I'm done for the day. I think we just disagree philosophically. I think our method is good. You do not. That's life. I truly think it is correct.

Nate

2:57

I've noticed in recent years there are 6, 7, 8 hitters that have accumulated more fWAR than the top pitcher. This goes back to 2022 and then before that time period, it's never really more than 1 or 2. Is this just a short term anomaly type thing or is there something larger about the sport going on?

Ben Clemens

2:58

this is structural, and has to do with the way we calculate WAR

we assign 600 WAR to hitters and 400 to pitchers every year. THat's just fixed. There are 1000 wins above replacement to hand out by definition

So if the pitching playing time is getting split between more guys, well...

2:59

basically as innings pitched decline and more pitchers shoulder the aggregate MLB workload, but batter workloads don't really diminish at the same rate, this direction of movement in top WAR totals is inevitable

Phil

2:59

I agree that the Sox should sign Bregman, and I am sure that Breslow is above emotional reactions, but if I were a GM or whatever he is, I would be frustrated at him and Boras for dragging this out until the last minute, with the same player and same team, two years in a row (this is assuming reports that the Sox made an "aggressive offer" are true).

Ben Clemens

2:59

I think that major league decision makers are absolutely not above emotional reactions, and didn't Breslow release a scout who badmouthed him on a hot mic just last year?

3:00

but I mean, sure, and I totally do think htis matters

when Boras misplays his hand, teams are annoyed with him, and they should be imo

DEF

3:00

Does catcher framing WAR come out of the 400 for pitchers?

Ben Clemens

3:00

I havent' actually pulled the stats apart to know for sure, but here's my 90% confidence take

no, because it's relative to average and so zeroed out

Hazmat Corntail

3:01

Ultimately, who’s the better import, Murakami or Okamoto?

Ben Clemens

3:01

if you're asking me who will have a better aggregate MLB career, gimme Murakami

I think that people are overplaying his swing and miss issues, though of course no one REALLY knows how he'll adapt. But I think he'll end up bopping in Chicago and then signing a big deal

3:02

I'd take Okamoto if I wanted a guy who will be better in '26

Nate

3:02

Wow I had no idea that WAR was split up like that. I'm not sure why (and it's probably because I have no statistical background), but that feels flawed? I guess at a bare minimum, it means you can't *actually* compare pitcher WAR to position player WAR then?

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